I Told Every Client Under Contract to Lock. Here’s the Number That Decided It

Mortgage rates today are under pressure after Brent crude broke $90 a barrel, and the Federal Reserve just put a rate HIKE back on the table. Here is what moved, what it costs, and what I am telling my clients to do about it.Updated for Monday, August 31, 2026 — Mortgage bonds opened down 15 on oil and Middle East conflict, pushing mortgage rates toward 6.85% and possibly 7%. PCE inflation sits at 3.7% against the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with 54% of the basket running over 3% versus 32% before the pandemic. Inflation has now been above target for 64 straight months. Meanwhile 23,000 jobs were lost in July and May–June revisions erased another 103,000 — and the Fed said plainly it is focused on inflation, not jobs.Here is the part almost nobody explains to homebuyers: the Federal Reserve can raise rates and your mortgage rate can still go down. The Fed sets short-term interbank lending. Mortgage rates track the 10-Year Treasury. If bond investors believe a hike will actually control inflation, long-term yields can fall even while the funds rate rises. That mechanism is walked through at 06:40.What I am telling clients: if you are under contract, lock your mortgage rate. I cannot price around another drone strike. If you are not under contract yet, watch two things — oil and inflation. Oil back under $70 and holding is when the Federal Reserve gets room to cut and mortgage rates can finally come down. Oil at $120 is a very different conversation for the housing market.CHAPTERS00:00 Oil Just Broke $90 — Here's Why That Hits Your Rate00:39 The Chart I Check Every Morning Before Quoting a Rate01:21 What the Federal Reserve Actually Watches01:46 Inflation at 3.7% When the Target Is 2%01:59 The Data This Week That Can Move Mortgage Rates02:40 103,000 Jobs Gone — And the Fed Says It Doesn't Care04:06 The Jackson Hole Speech, Translated06:20 The Odds of a Hike Just Changed06:40 Why a Fed Hike Doesn't Have to Raise Your Mortgage Rate08:31 Lock or Float: What I'm Telling Clients Right Now10:04 Rate Watch, Loan Estimate Review and DIY Mortgage11:16 What to Watch NextNEXT STEPS🏠 Get Pre-Approved → https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register📅 FREE CONSULTATION | Book a Call → https://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealan✉️ Ask Dan → https://www.therateupdate.com/contactTOP RESOURCES📉 Rate Watch — Free Mortgage Rate & Payment Monitoring → https://rw2.therateupdate.com/🏠 TRU Mortgage Command Center — Live Rate Dashboard → https://command.therateupdate.com/💳 TRU Debt Optimizer → https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools → https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations🔗 Guides, Calculators & Answers → https://solvitmortgage.com/resourcesWelcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio — mortgage rates, housing market data, and straight answers for homebuyers, homeowners and Realtors, from a licensed mortgage loan officer with 38 years in the business.- Daily mortgage rate updates and what actually drives them- Housing market news and home price trends- Inflation, CPI and Federal Reserve analysis- 10-Year Treasury and mortgage bond movement- First-time homebuyer education and refinance breakdowns- FHA, VA, conventional, HomeReady and reverse mortgagesWhether you are buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, comparing loan options, or just trying to understand why mortgage rates are moving today, this channel is built to help you make a better decision.WORK WITH MEOne application. One credit pull. 30+ lenders compared. You see the real number, not a pitch.FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATEYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrioInstagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdateTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdateIf this helped you understand mortgage rates a little better, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next rate update.#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #FederalReserve #FirstTimeHomeBuyer #RefinanceDan Frio | NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/This channel is for education and commentary only. All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with. Nothing here is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify.