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You guys shut up. Just go to Fantasy Champs.com. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in.
Welcome to August. Yes. It hits different. It hits different.
Yeah. It really, like... Like a linebacker. I am so jacked up for this month of August.
There are amazing things in store. Fantasy is back. Preseason will be here. Training camp's ongoing.
And August just hits different. I look at the show, I'm like... We're here. It's time.
Hall of Fame game. Well... Third stringer. Going at it.
Yeah. And that's... Is that tonight? Yeah.
Yeah. And for everyone out there, I just... I couldn't do it. I couldn't do it.
That also hits different. Like, there's not a lot of hard hits. I'm saying I could not... I couldn't miss football time for the Hall of Fame game.
I just couldn't do it. Yeah. I told you you could. I mean, I gave you permission, but you're the kind of...
You're the judge. It's very vibe heavy. And the vibe isn't... Now, if Caleb Williams was playing tonight...
Then heck yes, we would... Yes, yes. But not yet. No.
You've got to preserve. Very soon. Welcome in, one and all. Five days a week.
The fantasy footballers are with you. Five days a week. And if you are a supporter of the show, you can get a sixth episode. If you like Dynasty, you get a seventh episode.
If you like DFS and Betting, you get an eighth episode. If you like comedy, you get a ninth episode. Man, we do. A lot of shows.
We're proud of them. But five days a week. We're excited to be with you. The journey begins towards a fantasy championship.
The show has always been about you, about your team, your league contacts, giving you actionable information, stat-based, stat-back information to help you make judgment calls for your team heading into the year. And that's what we're all about. This is our 10th season of this show, which is live. And so it has been a lot of fun.
I'm super thankful for the Foot Clan that have come along for the ride and that are back for another season. We love what we do. I had somebody, I was talking on Twitter, and we're making some improvements and some changes to our Foot Clan membership. And those are coming extraordinarily now.
They're basically coming extraordinarily now. I thought I was bailing you out with them very soon, and you're like, a year ago. But that wasn't the headline. The headline was I went out there and I posted some teaser tweets about how we're making upgrades and improvements.
And we wanted to kind of consolidate the premium things that we provide into one account. So we're working through that. But somebody said, are you going to be giving up? Like, doing shows anytime soon?
Not bloody likely. That was the question. And I was like, no. No, no, of course not.
Going into year 10, it's wild. It's crazy. But I mean, I genuinely, I'm so confident that this is actually going to be our best year ever. We have some new tools, some new resources, things that we've been working on for years that are going to roll out.
And hopefully that pays off in championships. That's in the end what it's about. Having fun. And having fun means making fun of your friends and winning.
Yeah, yeah. That is the fundamental truth. And we're excited for the year. Excited for today's episode.
We have ice and fire on today's show, which means we have the greatest drop that Mike has ever put together. That's the way to kick off August. Also, Mike, how does it feel to know that your best work is just purely original? Look, they get really good work.
Sometimes other people in the world do things that are fantastic, and you must pay an homage to them. So we have news to talk about. The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now. UltimateDraftKit.com.
2024 UDK, Jason. What are you chuckling about? I'm chuckling because he said Ultimate. Okay.
I thought I heard it. And I was letting that slide. I was also trying to read something, but that's why I couldn't confirm. Let the record show I finally let one slide.
But it still couldn't get through the Ultimate. It didn't get through the smirk I saw out of the corner of my eye. But yeah. You owe me about 600 of those.
Right. So if you want the Ultimate Draft Kit, which we're going to now have to get a new domain, UltimateDraftKit.com. You're going to get five months of pronunciation mistakes until I get my tooth repaired fully. That makes sense.
I hope to dunk on you many, many, many. Yeah, what's coming? The Ultimate. Get in right now.
What else is going on? Oh, Mike, we need a trumpet. Al, can we trumpet something up here? Al?
Al? That was it? Oh, that wasn't it? That wasn't me.
I mean, it's me, but I totally thought it was you. That wasn't the... Yeah, all right. That one I knew wasn't you.
But Mike, let's talk about something very exciting. Pay attention, because this information is shared one time and one time only. Listener League submissions for the Fantasy Footballers. It's officially open.
And what does that mean? The Listener League is a 14-team league that the three of us play in, and you can win a spot into that league. Play with us throughout the season. Here's how you get in.
Your submission, should you've been working on it or you're doing it right now, it will be sent to listenerleague at fantasyfootballers.com. Listenerleague at fantasyfootballers.com. And what do we want? We don't want your trophy pictures.
I don't want, oh, you're too scared to play with me because I'm so good at fantasy football. That's not what this league is about. This league is about really fun people, engaged listeners, people that love the show, that want to be in the league with us, and having a really good time along the way. So look, that might be a short video that you made, something funny that you have made.
Like, my biggest personality. Personality, yeah, exactly. Show us who you are. The biggest pieces of advice are the trophy case, it doesn't matter, and don't send in a wall of text.
If it's just a wall of text, it's going to be difficult to make through the film. That's TLDR. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, and if it is a wall of text, throw it into ChadDBT and say, turn this into 10 words.
We gave you the email address. No, you cannot submit late. No, you can't send it to our support staff and overwhelm them with your listenerleague requests. Listenerleagueoffantasyfootballers.com.
That is it. That is the final time I won't mention it. And we just want to feel the personality coming through. Whatever your entry is, as creative as you want to be, it's always a fun time of year to go through those entries.
We do read and check them all. And it's an important league to us. You know, we try to keep our leagues to a minimum. Sometimes we're in too many, and we don't care about all of them.
But we actually really care about the listenerleague. I mean, Brooks was found in the listenerleague. The biggest loser on the show was part of the listenerleague. This becomes part of our year, part of our season, and we can't wait to have a handbook with us.
And if you win it, you come back. That's true. I mean, I've won it twice. I'm still here.
Yeah, Jason's been in the listenerleague quite some time. Brooks is concerned that the way that you presented meeting him in the listenerleague, and then the biggest loser, it sounded like he was the biggest loser. Oh, no, no, no. I don't want anyone to think Brooks is that big of a loser.
He did lose. Brian Ketrens. Oh, yeah, yeah. But Brian Ketrens, call me.
I mean, what a loser. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Well, yeah, Bears.
The Bears have signed DJ Moore to a four-year, $110 million extension, which he had two years left on his contract. That's how you get out ahead of it, man. It is the largest deal in Bears history. I think it's a brilliant deal.
Maybe a part of the future. You have, you know, a rookie under contract at quarterback. Go ahead and just sign this. Make sure this is a done deal going forward.
Absolutely a brilliant move. And C.D. Lamb just sits there and goes, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait, wait, agent. Hold up.
Okay, now go back to him. Over and over and over. Still waiting on C.D. Lamb's contract, which I think will come.
It seems like it's close. I mean, we recorded the show a day earlier. It could be done. By the time we're talking, we could.
You sound so stupid right now. Well, no, not anymore. You just work out of it. Yeah, I know.
That's why I do that. But Brandon Ayuk, as of this recording, still does not have a new home or a contract. He's got a high five phone. Yeah, there was a video.
I mean, this is news stuff. This is hype train. A video of Brandon Ayuk walking up to the coach and general manager. Some dap was shared between the three of them.
And we're trying to analyze what's going on in this footage. Is this a congratulations, you got a deal? Is this a, hey, man, thank you so much for working through this. Enjoy your new location.
We don't know. We don't know. It could be so many things. The accounts out there that have hit on some rumors are saying there's a big trade coming.
So we're standing by. But something big is about to happen. Big wide receivers that need some answers. All of them on Mike's dynasty team.
Steelers rookie wide receiver Roman Wilson went down in practice, carded off. It was a major concern yesterday. Right now it's week to week and considered to be okay for the start of the season. So that's overall good news.
It's fantastic. But you have to keep in mind that with a rookie, when you miss this specific stretch of time, that means his career is going to get off to a slower start. He's going to be a less impact player. He's like pretty much, to me, if he's going to miss the next several weeks, because he was a late round, like a last round target.
He's not anymore. There's enough rookie wide receivers like a target that I'm not going to grab the injured guy. Deeper or dynasty leagues, you're looking at other options outside of Roman Wilson in that offense. If you believe they're going to be better with Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, you're looking at what Van Jefferson is there and Calvin Austin is there.
I would rather tell Calvin Austin. Calvin Austin's been running ahead of Roman Wilson anyway. Yeah, Calvin Austin's got crazy speed. He's dealt with injuries.
But he makes a little bit more sense with the moon ball from Russell Wilson. Honestly, I think the big beneficiary here, the guy that I've been rising on more and more, I don't think it's who you're going to say. He thinks you're going to say Pickens. I think the Muth.
Yeah, baby. He's going to be a Muth in 24. Which, if you're new to the show, that is Pat Fryermuth, a tight end for the Steelers. Fryer tooth.
That's you. Yeah, Pat Fryermuth. I really do think it's going to be a post-hype bounce-back season for him. You know, not like he's going to be one of these top three or four tight ends, but I think he'll be a top eight tight end.
He's not drafted that way. Okay. Yeah, I can get in on that. Also, I apologize for my short-term ranking of Pat Fryermuth as the number two tight end overall.
That did happen momentarily this morning. Jason made a bit of a typo in his rankings. I wanted to give him 99 targets. I gave him 99 receptions.
Oh, that'd be a good year. Much better for fantasy. So all it takes is 100 catches from him to bump him up? Yeah.
Okay. Any other news breaking from Deucer's Alley over there? We do have a full... Hey, that's back.
We call it a full alley. Off the potty. Proud of you. How are you doing, Matt?
You doing all right? Yeah, I'm feeling good. Feeling good. I'll have my fire out early.
That's good. But what we know about you is if you're not feeling good, you will abandon the show. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that's why you hire cleaners, too.
All right. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at usaa.com slash insurance. We will take a break, and then it is time for some Ice and Fire.
All right. Without further ado, we are going to jump into one of our favorite segments leading into the season. This is a... It's kind of like a...
It's a little bit like a pre-My Guy opportunity for us. Like, we get to... Sure. To bring a name up that maybe we're not going to roll into My Guys, but we really like.
So let's jump in. Ice and Fire. All right. We have each selected an Ice and Fire player for today's show.
There is a lot of hype, right? The hype train has been active, and there are players that people have excitement for that maybe we are a little bit on the opposite side of that story. We're going to keep it a mystery, so I wanted you guys to introduce a name and then reveal whether they are an Ice or Fire player who would like to begin. I'll start it off.
Ollie, we'll start it off with last year's wide receiver, 10, who is going to an up-and-coming offense, is being drafted on Sleeper right now as a wide receiver, 17, in the third round. So this is an important fantasy player, a great, awesome player for the last many, many years. I'm talking about Stefan Diggs, baby. A superstar.
But y'all know where this is. Y'all know where this is going. This is not my fire pick. Stefan Diggs this year, he's Ice.
Ice. His stat line last year was pretty good on the season. 160 targets, 107 receptions, 1,100 yards, 8 touchdowns, finishes the wide receiver, 10. But I think the Bills knew something.
They were the ones, with him in the building, they were the ones who went away from him and started winning ballgames. And, you know, it's one of those things when you start to see a decline with a player, it hardly ever reverses course at this age. If there is a decline, I can't, when I say hardly ever, that's hedging something I can't ever remember. Someone that is losing a step post-30 years old, and then is like, oh, he's back, baby.
You've got yard-throw-out run, average depth of target, his contested catch rate. That's not like a, oh, what was he utilized? Maybe his targets weren't as valuable. Just like when he was in the situation to catch a ball, was he coming down with it like he always has?
And those were down. And we remember how bad the end of last season was. From week 10 on, he averaged 7.5 fantasy points a game. He had one finish inside the top 24.
That's not a high bar to crack. And, you know, now he is certainly not used to being the least talented wide receiver in the room. That's what he is now. At this day and age, Nico Collins and Pink Dell are better than him.
They also have more experience with CJ Stroud. They're younger. They are more explosive. They are the better options in this depth chart.
And if you look at Stephon Diggs, whilst having more wide receivers on the field, even over the last couple years while he's dominated, he is not as good in three wide receiver sets. We're talking, like last year, yards per route run with three wide receivers on the field, 1.66. Now, you might not know what that means. Let me tell you.
It means bad. It means red. It means very, very not good. A very low number.
Among 30 NFL wide receivers with 90 plus targets while having three wide receivers on the field, here's the only ones with a lower yards per route run. Garrett Wilson had no quarterback. Tyler Lockett, Elijah Moore, and Tyler Boyd last year. So I do think we saw decline on the field.
Originally, I talked it all up to the changeover in offensive coordinator, and now the freedom to go somewhere new. I was much more open to him having a great season. Now, I'm not shutting the door that he can't be decent, but where you're drafting him in the third round, there is no way he is a league winner. There's none.
That range of outcomes, to me, to Jason Moore, does not exist. You know, if Stroud is awesome, the offense puts on all cylinders, he throws 35 touchdowns, that could happen. But at his age, an ADP to pay off, you have to exceed ADP. And a soon-to-be 31-year-old wide receiver changing teams in year 10, well, that is not usually the description of someone that smashes their ADP.
In fact, if you look back at the last decade, here are the top 10 best fantasy seasons for wide receivers changing teams at year 10. Okay, this is not all of them. This is the best. This is the success story of those.
The top 10. Well, you have Brandon Marshall. Awesome season. Remember that long ago?
Goes to the Jets. Was like the dude. He finishes the wide receiver three. Okay, great.
Then you've got other superstar names in there. Deshaun Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree, Golden... pay AJ Green Adam Phelan Brandon Cooks just a bunch of great wide receivers and here's their fantasy finishes 45-42-55-64-43-41-62-25-37 those are the best those are the top 10 best and 25-25 that second best that was Adam Phelan last year how do you feel about that? two comments one Michael Crafter thrilled to be included with those other names two what if I told you that Diggs caught 75 for over 1,000 in seven touchdowns I would say you're super disappointed on spending a third round pick on it like actually really disappointed so that was DeAndre Hopkins in Tennessee last year at wide receiver 22 played 17 games 137 targets you would not be unhappy about 137 targets but obviously not prolific 20-20 numbers from Hopkins I kind of look at those in similar veins now we're clearly not the consensus opinion on Diggs because his AP is at 309 and I know there's a name value aspect there I guess I'm just curious like the implication of the Bills saw something in the locker room and they didn't want it anymore saw something on the field I should say is also saying Houston did they make a mistake but it was probably a gamble it's not a monetary gamble to the degree that they care if they make a mistake yeah they're fine they guarantee the rest of his contract and didn't extend him so they're just saying hey let's bring this in help this offense stay awesome while CJ Straub goes into his second year and I don't think they made a mistake because they don't need Stephon Diggs to be what he was two years ago they need Stephon Diggs to come in probably play in the slot a little bit more as he gets older less explosive he should be the slot player you might think it's Tank Dell because he's small that's just not how this offense operates Tank Dell was 70% an outside receiver last year you put Stephon Diggs in the slot that's better for him that's better for the Texans it's a good deal I think the Texans should be thrilled to have Stephon Diggs there I don't think you as a fantasy manager in the third round will be thrilled to draft him there that's why he's my eyes alright you or me Mike I'm very excited about this player so I'm going to hit this button oh no tease I screwed the whole tease up by starting with I'm excited about this player so I had to hit the button as fast as possible it could have been a ruse the tease is I haven't said the name yet this is a player that I think has passed eye tests for me from the moment he took the field and it's Jaden Reed wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers you did talk him up every time you saw him last year and there was a time when that was not a popular thing to do and I believe I made the statement that's the best wide receiver that team has in a very small sample size of the rookie year and I'll tell you one of the reasons why I sat here and hesitated on making Jaden Reed was the Jahan Dotson experience of seeing Jahan Dotson on the field as a rookie and really believing in the talent and seeing the fact that things can just go wrong for you in your sophomore year some your fault some not your fault Jaden Reed is in the midst of a group of wide receivers in Green Bay that has a lot of ambiguity in the fantasy community because people I've noticed something they want to be fans of Christian Watson I've noticed that and they also want to be like the Dontadian Wicks homies Romeo Dotson is the only one people don't want to like yeah Dotson is just because he's in the way he's got vanilla ice cream on the roster from a skill standpoint just because he does nothing amazingly but everything good and for some reason it's like okay Wicks whoo he's 30 per hour and his numbers are amazing and Watson oh my gosh remember those touchdowns and he's a burner well Jaden Reed is in this other category where like I still believe what I said back then I think he is by far the best wide receiver on this team I think he has displayed incredible scale from a very from the jump right not expected like this team didn't expect Jaden Reed to come and maybe be their number one wide receiver and you can get a value taking a shot on Watson or Wicks or Dobbs I don't think you should do that I think you should spin spin up on Jaden Reed who's the highest ADP of the wide receivers for a number of reasons historically statistically over the last five years the wide receiver won an ADP for a team is the best fancy wide receiver on their team over 70% of the time we've had this discussion in the past with 49 wide outs or the deal and digs do you take the discount there are pretty profound question marks around the other wide receivers in Green Bay there is a health and we haven't seen Watson with Jordan Reed Jordan Love goodness Jordan Reed the tight end is also on this team no but there are question marks how much opportunity will he have and then Dobbs he's in the mix we got tight ends we like we got running backs we like Jane Reed is the player that they're going to force feed the football all season long I did a lot of like I watched Kyle posted every target and opportunity for Jane Reed for the entire year so not just catches every target he gets the ball out of the backfield dealt with injuries at the end of the season Jane Reed to me the best comp that I found when you look at how he performed at the combine his physical ability and size and the way he's involved in end rounds and short area targets but he's also a burner down the field because he is so fast it was Golden Tate Golden Tate I think is a perfect match for the kind of player that Jane Reed is and right now Jane Reed is being drafted as the wide receiver 34 I think you're not having this fire conversation with Jane Reed saying he's a top 10 wide receiver you're talking about a player that I think will be a perennial tennis one I think that's going to be an every year type of thing for Jane Reed he also gets the ball on the ground at a higher frequency and well this year than Golden Tate ever did so you take Golden Tate in that 13 to 15 to 18 type of range that Tate would always finish in and you mix in more Debo Samuel innovative work with the head coach to me he profiles like Golden Tate a little bit of Jordan Addison I think is in there in terms of the physical size and speed but from an eyeballs standpoint this reminds me of when we saw Stephon Diggs coming out of Minnesota and took about three games to recognize that this player has an innate ability to get open to read a defense to be available deep down the field when his quarterback is scrambling out of the pocket they just had a connection last year if you watch those targets and those rushing teams he was their best wide receiver the Packers against zone defenses oh wait he was also their best against man defenses so he was best in both hard for outrun numbers that we talk about all the time blew them out of the water on both of those the question marks around utilization and how often you're on the field and we worry about three wide receiver sets and two wide receiver sets I don't care that much I don't I don't care about that specific they have the opportunity to get in the football in a lot of different ways this is not just line them up and run them down the field I have a lot of belief in the player Jaden Reed and so I think from the perspective of late 6th round draft pick that is a 10 to 20 finish in my opinion I'm just very very excited about the future for him and I think he's being devalued he was a wide receiver 23 last year as a rookie with massive injury issues at the end of the year with 94 targets and if you project him and Watson when they play together he still had more receptions and targets than Christian Watson did so I'm a big Jaden Reed fan I just want to get it out there yeah I mean I do agree that he's a very talented wide receiver I think the golden take comp is nice I have a hard time drafting him because I don't see that same ceiling like you're saying he basically projects to be a wide receiver 2 which is a good value in the 6th round but I just want that you know what I mean I want to draft that that one that makes me hot and bothered for the upside that can be like a top 5 guy he was wide receiver 9 over the last 7 weeks of the year and I will tell you this from watching the film on Jaden Reed throughout the year he scored he was at 8 touchdowns last year there were 4 on the table 4 on top of those and he also got into the end zone on the ground 2 times so yeah I think he will have some weak to weak ceiling on the positive side I will say this right now he does project to have the highest probability of being the wide receiver 1 for this team like at the end of the year who has the most fantasy points I'm still better than the ceiling upside of Christian Watson but if you're just talking but are you telling me you believe Watson's a top 5 guy I think he has the ability if he plays healthy and is the one he's got the physical ability the explosiveness the size the body but probability says to Jaden Reed no matter what I think everyone out there is projecting that Packers offense is pretty darn good they've got a great head coach Jordan Love just got the bag for a reason and so if you're saying hey take a shot in the 6 at the number 1 wide receiver for a good offense who's going into year 2 which is another good bet to make in fantasy I don't have any problem if you want to push your chips on Reed and I love that you are pushing him in because it's like one of those things where almost in those things to remember type of episodes where you are remembering how much you loved the film last year because over and over we'd be sitting in the game room watching all the games going and you would just be like dude that guy's got it I mean there's a reason why you love Tank Dell yes because that dude's got it and it's not like Tank Dell situation what's more intimidating to have Nico Collins and that big contract and Stephon Diggs a potential Hall of Fame player coming into that environment and here's a Packers wide receiver that is not as intimidating for a player that started as a rookie and I feel like and we had a conversation a few weeks ago I do feel like the conversation when you include all four it causes us to lose the focus but it also gives you a discount in fantasy on a player like Reed so I'll put it on the table so Mike tantalize us with whether your player is a ice or fire so I will set it up with this Jason you brought up Stephon Diggs and it's fun to bring up that situation because right now the Houston Texans have three players three wide receivers being drafted as top 36 guys which is a it's a very rare occurrence like that's a strong bet on the Houston Texans their future their offense and CJ Stroud there is actually another team this year that has three wide receivers being drafted inside the top 36 except that team has a rookie quarterback ice and unfortunately rookie wide receiver Roma Dunze has to be my ice pick this is coming strictly from an ADP it hurts you a little bit it does because we like the player like when you like a player and then the ADP gets just out of whack it hurts like Sam Laporta love the player the guy's just going too early in the draft and right now that's how I feel about Roma Dunze like I said three players three wide receivers being drafted inside the top 36 is not common before this year in the last five years we've only seen it happen two times once was the Rams with Brandon Cooks Robert Woods and Cooper Cup it went really poorly for Brandon Cooks that year the other two were fine then you had the Pittsburgh Steelers Deontay Johnson Chase Claypool Claypool Claypool I felt like it was a tough pill to swallow and it was and Juju all three were top 36 ADP guys it worked for Deontay Johnson and the other two not so much and it's not that there's just two other guys in front of in front of Roma Dunze it's that one of them is DJ Moore who just got a big bag of money because they've said you are an elite player the other is Keenan Allen who was absolutely still playing lights out last year and you're just you're automatically number three in the pecking order and it just doesn't work out yeah there's no way outside of injury that Dunze is above those two this year there's no possible way and like let's say he's number three and somehow their offense is still pretty good we just we know historically a rookie quarterback roughly two-thirds of the time over the last 20 years so two-thirds so 66% of the time they can't even support one top 36 wide receiver one of them and we're drafting three of them for Caleb Williams I don't care how it's a new dawn Mike I don't care how bullish you are on the future of Caleb Williams he could be a Hall of Fame player but he's still a rookie quarterback and rookie quarterbacks just they have a ceiling Andy you brought up the study of how they just they struggle especially with passing touchdowns the audience could be fine they never sustained a double-digit touchdown a year from a single receiver is that what it is so it is absolutely not there and where he's being drafted he's being drafted as the wide receiver 33 on average that player the wide receiver 33 is about 9 points per game we're going to expand on the three wide receivers over the last 7 years 31 teams with three wide receivers in the top 60 so not even the top 36 we're expanding top 60 the wide receiver 3 averages 7.7 fantasy points per game like that is way under the expectation that you're hoping for when drafting the wide receiver 33 only 7 of those 31 have surpassed 10 points per game so essentially what I'm saying with a lot of fancy statistics here is your probability of a return is so low that it's just it's not fair to Roma Doomsday the player to be putting this much pressure on him his rookie season Caleb's rookie season while you have these other two superstars on the team he can be wildly helpful to the Bears yes and he can be a good rookie and you could still not you know he might have 4 or 5 games where a big play makes him a great play for fantasy but it isn't predictable so I think it's unfortunate to have to throw the cold water out there on him because you know different situation for the same player if you flip him in a neighbor situation you're probably talking I mean you're obviously talking completely different outlook as a rookie but yeah it makes sense and it's wild because when you think of rookie wide receivers especially in today's NFL these guys are succeeding earlier and more often now because the rules are changing and the wide receiver positions are improving but did you guys realize that since 2014 there's only 12 rookies that have passed 1,000 yards since what year?
2014 so 12 rookies rookie wide receivers so in 12 and 10 years basically? or in 9 years? 9 yeah and that's including 2014 where there were like 3 or 4 of them or is that like post? no the 2014 guys have been Beckham Mike Evans and Kelvin there's just their rookie year get bodied Sammy Watkins just saying it's that number was really shocking because I expected it would be much higher than just 12 guys alright we'll take a break and come back with some more Ice and Fire picks alright I'm going to kick it off here with another Ice pick because this is Ice and Fire you don't know how we're going and I'm telling you this little itty bitty baby boy Devon Achan could get broken very easily just kidding baby he's on fire oh Devon Achan I have gone back and forth all season all off season I should say and I'm firmly 100% at the finish line and I see the end I see it clearly Devon Achan is a league winner is awesome will succeed this season we'll get more opportunity this season it will be such a foolish thing at the end of this year when we go back and look at his rookie season and we go why weren't we drafting this dude in the first well I know what because he's small I get it like this is obvious look this is a fire pick I can go down in flames and timeshare and they drafted another speedy back you've got the touchdown machine and Raheem Oster there's a reason he's in the third there's a lot of ways it could go wrong I am here to tell you he is a fire pick and it is going to go right he is an explosive play waiting to happen number one in next gen rushing stats over expectation per attempt he was 2.87 yards over expectation Liar episode in March just to put his freakish breakaway speed into a clearer view A.C.M.
had 103 total carries rookie season that's it just barely broke 100 he now has as many total runs of 40 plus yards as Reggie Bush had in his 10 year career who was known as a breakaway guy so I don't have to talk anyone into A.C.M. being a freak Reggie Bush catch his trace hey you've got your Heisman you're fine grow up does he have a sports trace what's happening why are we got it back yeah he does have it back leave Reggie alone look Reggie you were electric and awesome you're no way if I make Reggie great and I'm saying A.C.M. is better over the last six years we've averaged two running backs per year who have finished as a running back one with fewer than 17 opportunities a game so there are a couple guys that crack super efficient players and if you had to put your money on who's going to be super efficient maybe like the most efficient rookie season of all time going into year two he also averaged in his nine full games H.N. Jason H.N.
Jason is a different Jason fire is right because I am hot and bothered yeah it's very similar to your jane reed last year you watched jane reed and you were just like he's unbelievable he's another level this is i'm trying to remember what i felt experienced every time you watched every place don't tell us how you felt the nfl can't handle this guy i'm going pantsless because he deserves it in his nine full games last year i'm going pantsless because he deserves it in his nine full games last year he already averaged 15.1 opportunities a game that's enough for him to finish the top 10 back obviously if you have some breakaway touchdown runs you're at that point you're a lot he's going to be more and more involved and he is going to grow as a pass catcher in this offense he lined up in the slot 35 of his pass plays that's highest in the nfl last year as a rookie of his 36 targets and keep that number in mind he only had 36 targets of his 36 targets he was the number he was the first read on 67 percent of him that's the highest in among all running backs that is the same total amount of first read targets that rashad white had okay and rashad white had 70 targets last year he is not getting dinkin dunks he's not like oh a little safety valve this is a prescriptive scripted play that says hey let's find a way to get a chan the ball he is which adds up it just kind of it adds up to the efficiency that you saw because they when you have a committee or you have a rookie and you know they have a certain level of skill and ability and you're not putting them on the field every single play when you do you generally use them that's kind of what that is saying in summation right when he was on the field they designed plays to utilize yeah uh ryan heath does great work on twitter you follow him he had a tweet talking about how efficient he was in the historical data among rookie running backs drafted in the first three rounds who outperformed their weighted opportunity by two and a half points per game so that's that's the stat i was talking about earlier five of five had a volume increase in year two and four of five tops 20 fantasy points per game that is a crazy high efficient number the only one that didn't have jeff fisher as a head coach i like this head coach and this head coach likes devon a-chan don't take it from me take it from mr mcdonald um i'm seeing a pro that uh not to say that he wasn't a pro last year he was he was a rookie that um really impressed his teammates with his ability to digest and execute and he really impressed guys about how the game you hear this much the game's not too big for him right well that's cool for devon if that's where his ceiling where he wants his ceiling thankfully for the miami dolphins that's not so he's expanded um roles expanded uh you know different ways that he can get the ball um but he's he's really uh he's become a guy that pretty much every person counts on to know take it from ron mcdonald and that helps everyone so he's become a pro diet strength um it's really cool to see he takes the success and uh fortunately for us who authorized this i did from mr mcdonald if you're watching youtube you just crack up because i said from from mcdonald's mike mcdonald's uh over here his name is mike mcdonald we have no more listeners they're all going after that yeah they all went to go draft the show listen it was him saying that he is now an integral part of the offense every player on the field is relying on the mcdonald's because of the mcdonald's that he is his body is ready he is more involved and he is not content to just stay at what his great rookie season was that's that's what he was saying it was a little boring but the content is important for fantasy managers to know that the direction the arrow is is headed up and obviously if he's on the field he's going to win weeks on the reg i will i will say two seconds worth of comments on hn and we'll move on because i don't i don't really have a lot to add one i do believe that devon hn will be a league winner this year so i'm with you my man two i think we can get two lost in the hyper efficiency and the kind of crazy numbers i think it's better to focus on is this a really good football player and a really good offense with a really good coach and and he seems committed to being great and i think you know you don't need to make him a 7.3 carry his whole career guy to be amazing for fantasy that is not that's unsustainable so we don't we can be like wow that was an amazing rookie year i hope he has a better year this year and i think that's very possible i you know he mostert ironically was was crazy efficient as well that's part of this offense so yeah i'm with you i believe it's my turn to talk uh we i've got i've got a 45 minute conversation hold on just listen up um i'm seeing oh do you think anybody in the press conference is like oh did i ask that oh i should not have asked that why yes no questions only he's much more fun in person if you got the video well he's a fun guy he's a fun guy yeah he's just got a funny cadence for uh podcasting um i was about to make jonathan brooks my ice player on today's show and you knew better and so i will i will briefly tell you why um it is a fear jonathan brooks would keep running back acl tear opportunities in carolina uh it was going to be built around the fact we actually had a lot of second round running back flops in year one a little bit worried about that charbonnet effect of uh you know you've got other running backs and and maybe this doesn't pan out you draft him early it doesn't help your team by the time he's okay you've moved on all these reasons for jonathan brooks the reason i did not put him in here after kyle spent time building my argument with me i pivoted this morning here's some fundamental reason he's a great player and i don't want to make a michael carter breeze hall mistake with jonathan brooks so i'm just throwing out a breeze hall was on a bad football team with a depth chart in front of him and the best player one real quick and i do think that possible jonathan brooks will stay neutral there instead i will use this opportunity to just dump all over aaron jones and i've historically been a monster aaron jones fan um aaron jones is one of those guys that's always been like crazy efficient where we're always like oh if you just had like yeah only adrian peterson work alone jaren jones are cowards but this you know you do have to turn the page sometimes in fantasy football and um he's 29.6 years old the packers moved on and you can say whatever you want about the contract situation they moved on they were done with their jobs they moved on to josh jacobs um who was as inversely efficient as you know as you can be last year they moved on 30 year old running backs it's not a great bet when they change teams um since 2000 there's a great article by marvin on our website marvin eloquin um since 2000 only 16 percent of top 24 fantasy seasons have come from running backs over 29 years old it's even worse when you're talking about the inefficiency situation there in minnesota where kevin o'connell says he wants to throw the football and has ranked 28th in rushing attempts for two consecutive years 31st in neutral rate you're not going to have as many opportunities on this roster where we all did we all put minnesota at the bottom of that division yeah pretty sure that's what we did um it's a problem it's a problem to me uh from an efficiency standpoint i'm worried about touchdown opportunities for aaron jones and i'm worried about the offense not being successful i'm worried about ty chandler being worked in because you always work somebody in with aaron jones in your backfield aaron jones can prove me completely wrong if he catches five passes a week like if that's just what happens in this offense um then i will be proven wrong but i think it's a tough bet to make drafting as a top 24 running back where i have players later in the draft that i have more confidence in that are on the front side of their career um so i you know aaron jones has just been a player this offseason where i just haven't had the confidence so kevin o'connell has not proven the ability to i mean we went into last season and uh the madison truthers were ready ready to be there we're already dead man and uh yeah and so i just don't have the confidence aaron jones is gonna be able to have consistency for your lineup this year yeah i get that i have been pro aaron jones um the end of last year he was awesome he was utilized like crazy and he was so efficient i mean he ended the season just showing like he hasn't lost anything obviously when you get to 30 that is an important number for a running back when you switch teams that is always a big yellow flag that could cause issues when your team goes from a great offense to a more bottom half offense that's bad for the running back when you've got a rookie quarterback there's a lot of things that are certainly stacked up against aaron jones i still think he's got it i believe that you know the head coach is very very smart i think that he'll unleash aaron jones in the right way and he'll be efficient but i don't i don't see him he's certainly not a league winner well i hope he unleashes him better than madison oh for sure i mean madison here's the thing here's the only difference you know that i think is you know we got to be intellectually honest with the massive comparison last year you know there was debate on madison like him or don't know there's no debate you out every time he's a bum he sucks he's not good if you want to find the case where jones it's an alvin kamara late career success in new orleans case which is catch the football be efficient on your touches but you're going from a top office to potentially a bottom office i mean we all agree that like donald is going to transition at some point in the year and donald hasn't looked great yeah and the schedule starts with six five or six tough tough games from minnesota and so then you're saying okay you're going to elevate over the back half of the year for a guy that hasn't played 17 games in a long long time yeah i mean to me i feel like aaron jones is locked in as a running back too like i'm not there you think he'll finish outside the top 24 running backs i think so see i i don't think he's got the potential to be a running back one this year but i don't think he's got the potential barring injury to be running back three he'll be involved in his quality so if you're drafting in the six it's a roster construction thing to me where it's like rb18 off the board right now that's where he's going is it yeah sounds about right but uh i think he's just a veteran that might not have that league winning upside but in the sixth round you're looking at you know if you can get a running back two in the in the sixth round that's uh it can be important all right moving on all right if you've done the math there'll be no suspense fire it's a fire pick like i had not done the math though yeah but our listeners have oh that's probably true yes it is it's jaylen waddle of the miami dolphins who is going right now as the wide receiver 18 over on sleeper and i have extreme confidence in jaylen waddle having a true bounce back season last year's end of season numbers they're not great 104 targets he caught 72 for just over a thousand yards and only four touchdowns that was the wide receiver 34 you need to fill in some gaps here though he missed three games so he put up that production in 14 games on the season that's like a 1200 yard pace you give jaylen waddle 1200 yards last year he's not being drafted as the wide receiver 18 and then look closer at the the behind the scenes metrics not just the raw numbers at the end compared to last year where by the way in 2022 he was the wide receiver seven tyree kill was on that team just a quick reminder that that this was this is not a well jaylen waddle can't succeed with tyree he has already done it he finished as wide receiver seven while tyreek was doing tyreek things which are impossible to stop but so comparing 2023 to 2022 for jaylen waddle his yards per route run very very close his targets per route run actually went up he had his pro football focus grade went up the issue was number one touchdowns those definitely went down and two besides the games that he missed watching the miami dolphins by jaylen waddle was off the field all the time his uh injuries per lining up to run around went way up last year yes he was chronically injured and trying to fight through those injuries so i'm going to make the assumption of health that jaylen waddles can start to be healthy let me jump in because the one objection i've heard from our listeners was we talked about jaylen waddle earlier this offseason and literally somebody replied and said lol banking on waddles health i will never draft that player again because like the burns and the fact that you you know there's something like julio jones had these years he had these years where he didn't miss any games but if we would ask us all after the season how many games he missed we would probably say like 40 because it felt it feels almost worse when you is he out there yes snap snap snap snap he's on oh he's on the field oh no he's on the field um that was the experience of waddle last year is that i think that the bridge too far for a lot of fancy managers is presuming sure let me let me make the counter argument there okay some guys are weak and they get injured and they stay off the field okay and then they miss games he played him 14 games last year 17 games a year prior 16 games a year that's the rebuttal is he played every single game as a sophomore he missed a single game as a as a rookie so this is not a well jaylen waddle misses tons and tons of games every single year but again the point being he actually improved on a lot of metrics he is the perfect player for zone coverage which the nfl is moving to that more and more and good luck guarding the miami dolphins in man is can the best cornerback in the league man up against tyree kill no i would say oh if you do that over the course of a game you're going to end up having a bad cornerback in the league prices no the best cornerback they're going to say yes but can they actually do it and tyree kills numbers against zone are incredible last year the highest yards per route run in zone who's number two on that list above justin jefferson above amin ross st brown above puka debo brandon iu it's jaylen waddle like jaylen waddle was actually very very good in in his in yards per route run and opportunities i think everything was completely related to injury and completely related to expectations of last year like he was the wide receiver nine so that was admittedly devastating i had waddle on a lot of teams last year and it didn't work but that doesn't like that year is gone i did jaylen waddle all the arguments are like okay is it a good player on a good offense with a good head coach check check check yeah you know your your fantasy football emotional reaction is going to be proportional to the investment made yes and so because of that and i understand because i have that happen too if you are if you're drowning at wide receiver 30 and you get hurt a little bit for three years you know one year of injury riddled play for waddle feels like it's the story of his life and so that is my way of saying he is discounted yes and wide receivers going uh wide receivers going around jaylen waddle in the draft right now jace the fun days is one spot ahead of jaylen waddle yeah no thank you then you have uh dj moore you can make that's fine you can make the argument but i'm still on the side of it's a rookie quarterback and i'm not going to draft dj moore in the third round and then malik neighbors who's a rookie himself in a tough situation so like the guys right around him for me it's really really easy that if and i'm gonna i'll go rbrb jaylen waddle as my one that's where my confidence is in him despite him being the number two on his team i i i'd be nervous but it might be the right move i i do feel like an honorable mention fire for me would be dj moore in the discussion um you know this this contract is a reflection on like he was one of the best players i watched play football last year which i didn't want to watch just fields play quarterback very often some things he does were exciting some things were infuriating but dj moore was just next level and um he got rewarded for it early i still think he is the fit like your argument against the dunes like your bet should be on more there i mean i just i'm it really really should sure in my opinion you know i have no problem in especially of the three of them like one of them could really succeed like one of the bears wide receivers i'm talking about i think it's it would i put the bet on dj moore but it's between him and he now i think is it's not a slam dunk that is dj moore i think it's what does mr mcdonald think because i think he had an arm yeah um and he sent some uh it was great because you said that you said it all up with the wrong name it was like you're like but um you got the clip and everything a lot of homework on this episode when you love davani chan you really do where's the tattoo going do you know about um audio editing uh let's talk to the owl on that one whoa no no no i was privy to you assigning the clip to owl i'm gonna defend you here thank you you said well i heard you say it'd probably be about a minute yeah there's a beautiful minute that was a beautiful it's an important minute i sat in real time and listened to a 10 minute quote here's the thing here's the thing truly it is not fair to mr mcdonald it is not fair to mcdonald to have to come you know how you you have these speeches and then you've got to go up after someone that's just crushing. Oh, like we opened for him? I was his opener. I was like, oh, that's not fair.
He should have opened for me, and then it would have been okay. I'm the headliner. I'm sorry, Mr. McDonald.
I apologize. I was too busy laughing. What did he say? I didn't.
Did he say he likes HM? He said that HM is a pro, that he's focused on his diet, that he's not content, and that the entire offense is completely relying on him. Okay. Well, that was not a pro.
Oh, no. Make it stop. Stop it, Al. All right.
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