If The War Restarts, How Long Can Iran Survive? (S01E49)

Monday, April 13, 2026, IstanbulIran has retrofitted its arms indusrty and security posture several times in the last few decades. After the Iran-Iraq war, it committed to developing an expansive missiles program to fend off any attacks from neighbors in the Arab world.Following the 2003 US war against Iraq, it developed the mosaic defnse doctrine under which it granted authority to regional commanders to fight on their own in case a global superpower destroyed command and control.After last year’s 12-day war, Iran made two key changes. Faced with a ferocious Israel assassination campaign it ordered each commander name their own successors, in case they were killed. More crucially, says Ali Ahmadi of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and a former adviser to Iran’s UN Mission in New York, Iran moved its missile production into the cavernous mountain redoubts it had installed, giving them a measure of longevity in a prolonged war of attrition.I wrote about Iran’s stamina in an article for the Singapore Straits Times which is available to paid subscribers. You can also listen or watch my interview with Ahmadi, in which we discuss how well-prepared Iran is for the next round of fighting.Journalism requires time and resource. If you can afford it please consider becoming a paid subscriber to receive all my content and support my work. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit borzou.substack.com/subscribe