Impact of Global Change on Food Security in 2050: Assessing Risks Through the Lens of Food Trade

Policy Seminar | IFPRI Policy Seminar The Impact of Global Change on Food Security in 2050: Assessing the Risks Through the Lens of Food Trade Organized by IFPRI in partnership with MIT Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab/FACT Alliance November 19, 2025 Trade is crucial to achieving food security. The Jameel Index for Food Trade and Vulnerability (Jameel Index) is a valuable new tool to guide policy and investment decisions that support sustainable international development and food security through food trade. The Index provides food trade vulnerability scores for more than 180 countries by synthesizing global indicators into a composite vulnerability index to better understand how food trade dynamics can affect food security. It combines a range of meta-indicators to assess food trade vulnerability for nine staple crops and economically important agricultural commodities. The online platform also allows users to customize the Index to reflect their policy or investment questions. This seminar will present results from the Jameel Index for global change scenario projections to 2050, with inputs from IFPRI’s Food Modeling Framework. IFPRI’s IMPACT-GLOBE modeling linkage and new bespoke bilateral trade model, developed specifically for the Jameel Index, uses a set of population and economic growth, along with climate change scenarios. The seminar will present findings related to food trade, food import vulnerability, and food security, along with insights on drivers of these findings. Following the presentation of results, a panel of food trade and development experts will discuss policy implications. A general Q&A session will follow the panel. Presentations of Global Change Results on Food Trade and Security Kenneth Strzepek, Climate, Water, and Food Specialist MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy J-WAFS Timothy Thomas, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Faaiqa Hartley, Scientist, IFPRI Sherwin Gabriel, Scientist, IFPRI Panel Discussion Paola De Almieda, Food, Agriculture and Water Portfolio Head – Operating Advisor, Pegasus Capital Advisors Ruth Hill, Director, Markets, Trade, and Institutions, IFPRI Mark Rosegrant, Research Fellow Emeritus, IFPRI Moderator Greg Sixt, Director, Food and Climate Systems Transformation (FACT) Alliance, Research Manager for Climate and Food Systems, Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab More about this Event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/the-impact-of-global-change-on-food-security-in-2050-assessing-the-risks-through-the-lens-of-food-trade/ Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription