Implausible Deniability: The New Age of State Threats

In this episode of Secure Line, hosts Stephanie Carvin, Jessica Davis, and Leah West dive into the evolving landscape of state threats. They explore how modern covert operations—from cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to acts of sabotage—are reshaping national security, highlighting a significant shift from traditional espionage to more technologically driven, transnational activities. The episode features guest Matthew Redhead, a seasoned researcher on financial crime and national security. Drawing on insights from his report, “Old Wine, New Bottles, The Challenge of State Threats,” Redhead delves into the blurred lines between espionage, sabotage, and foreign interference. He explains how state threats now encompass a broader spectrum of covert operations, including the outsourcing of targeted assassinations to criminal networks—a trend driven by factors such as (im)plausible deniability, cost efficiency, and the exploitation of technology to access denied areas and engage in transnational repression. The discussion further contrasts the legal frameworks and defensive measures employed by Western governments with the often reckless tactics of adversarial states.