In an Average Year, the President’s Party Loses 28 Seats | Mark Halperin

Guest:Mark Halperin - Editor-in-Chief - 2WAY Interactive Inc.Guest Bio: Mark Halperin is one of the nation's most experienced political analysts, authors, and commentators. He is the co-author of the New York Times bestsellers Game Change and Double Down, which provided definitive, behind-the-scenes accounts of the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Over a career spanning decades, Halperin has served as the political director for ABC News, a senior political analyst for Time magazine, and a frequent contributor across major news networks. Currently offering national political reporting and analysis through his independent platforms, Halperin is widely recognized for his data-driven insights into campaign strategy, presidential polling, and the shifting dynamics of both state and federal elections.Show Summary“In a normal state, you'd say organize and get hot at the end. There is no organization in California—it's just get hot at the end". In this episode of State of Gold, host Jon Slavet sits down with legendary political journalist Mark Halperin for a masterclass in campaign math, media scrutiny, and national electoral trends.Halperin opens by revising his previous predictions for the 2026 California Governor's race, and outlining a path where either San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan or Xavier Becerra will ultimately take the mansion. The discussion dives into the sudden "open secret" implosion of Eric Swalwell, drawing historical parallels to presidential campaigns of the past to explain why certain scandals only ignite under a high-stakes media microscope.Zooming out to the federal level, Halperin drops a sobering forecast for the upcoming midterms, predicting a massive "blue wave" that could see Democrats flip over 30 seats in the House and capture a Senate majority. Finally, the conversation shifts to the 2028 presidential landscape, offering insider scouting reports on Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, J.D. Vance, and Josh Shapiro. From the family "veto power" on Newsom's ambitions to why a well-run Super PAC is a candidate's greatest weapon, this episode provides an unmatched look at the mechanics of modern political warfare.Chapters00:00 – Shifting Trajectories: Why Mahan and Becerra are Leading the Field01:12 – Selling Oatmeal: Can Matt Mahan Make Moderation Sexy?02:15 – Breaking Becerra: Vacuum and Vulnerabilities in the Debates03:07 – The Primary Math: Can Republicans Avoid a Top-Two Shutout?04:34 – Open Secrets: Why the Swalwell Skeletons Exploded Late06:35 – Defining the Perfect California Republican: The Legacy of Dick Reardon08:45 – The Midterm Forecast: Affordability, the Iran War, and a Looming Blue Wave11:12 – The Texas Drought: Can James Talarico Unseat a Republican Statewide?12:26 – The Gauntlet of 2028: Family Vetos and Gavin Newsom's Presidential Ambitions15:34 – Bestsellers and Email Lists: Sizing Up Newsom's National Appeal18:24 – The 2028 Dem Board: Harris, Shapiro, Buttigieg, and Rahm Emanuel21:33 – Super PAC Strategy: The Hidden Mechanics of a Winning Campaign23:00 – The Post-Trump Era: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and the Republican Mantle24:12 – Game Change Lessons: Normality, Charm, and Mission ChineseConnect with Mark HalperinTwitter: https://x.com/MarkHalperin?lang=enTwitter (show): https://x.com/NextUpHalperinInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/markevanhalperin/ Instagram (show): https://www.instagram.com/nextuphalperin/Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@NextUpHalperinWebsite: 2waytvapp.comEnjoyed the episode? Subscribe to our podcast, leave a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and join the conversation on Instagram and LinkedIn with the hashtag #stateofgoldpodcastConnect with State of GoldX: https://x.com/realjonslavetLinked In: https://www.linkedin.com/company/stateofgold/aboutInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/stateofgoldpodcast/?hl=enWebsite: www.stateofgold.com