Inflation Isn't Dead... But Where Is It Coming From?

The Fed says inflation is running 2 to 3 percent. The checkout counter says otherwise. This week we close the gap between the number they report and the number you live — where inflation is actually coming from, why prices are never going back down, and the four levers retirees can pull to fight the affordability squeeze. On this week's Money On Tap, we start with the distinction that changes everything: inflation is the rate at which prices rise, but affordability is the level of prices you have to live with — and when $100 becomes $125, a "cooling" inflation rate just means the new price grows slower. We follow the money to where the pressure really comes from: oil, the one commodity in every leg of the delivery chain (with diesel up roughly 24%); shelter costs that stack rent, insurance, property taxes, maintenance, and utilities; shrinkflation's not-quite-a-gallon gallon; tariffs that raised prices which never came back down; and healthcare — the retirement inflation almost nobody prices, from Medicare premiums to long-term care that can run five figures a month after Medicare steps away. Then we get practical: what inflation rate to actually stress-test your plan against, and the four ways to fight back — the right equities, bonds honestly reconsidered, annuities for the problem they truly solve, and the most powerful lever of all, tax mitigation. What you'll learn:Inflation vs. affordability — why "rates are cooling" never means prices are coming downWatch the barrel: why oil is the truest inflation gauge in your lifeWhat retirees actually buy — and how much of it the CPI undercountsShrinkflation: the quiet second tax at the same sticker priceHow tariffs raised prices that stayed raisedHealthcare as retirement inflation: premiums, prescriptions, and the long-term care cliffWhat inflation rate to stress-test your plan against (hint: not 2–3%)Lever 1 — the right equities: pricing power, free cash flow, low debt, real dividendsLever 2 — bonds reconsidered: the 4–5% risk-free window, and what rate cuts would doLever 3 — annuities and longevity risk: guaranteed income pays the bills, the portfolio fights inflationLever 4 — tax mitigation: keeping more of every distribution at century-low ratesPlus Money In The News:401(k) savers set records — balances up 10.5% in Q2, but a fifth of participants carry loansInside Apple's first launch event under its new CEO: the $1,999 foldable iPhone and "personal intelligence"The AI boom and tariff uncertainty push copper to record highsWant this week's white paper — seven things retirees can actually do about inflation? Email us at [email protected] and we'll send it over. Read our most recent Blog Post on this topic here: https://www.fmgwebsites.com/d772de05-9833-44e4-9676-f510f85cef74/blog/inflation-isnt-dead-where-its-coming-from-and-how-retirees-fight-backSchedule a free consultation: https://app.greminders.com/t/9f3ce72e/initialconsultaBrowse the full Money On Tap library: https://www.brayshawfinancial.com/money-on-tap Contact UsPhone: 855-226-8551Email: [email protected]: 116 South River Road, Bedford, NH 03110Web: brayshawfinancial.comSecurities and advisory services offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. All other services offered through Brayshaw Financial Group, LLC are independent of Osaic Wealth, Inc. Osaic Wealth, Inc. and Brayshaw Financial Group do not provide tax or legal advice. Annuity guarantees are backed by the claims-paying ability of the issuing insurer. Figures cited are approximate as of the air date, drawn from sources believed reliable, and subject to change; alternative inflation measures are unofficial. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.Why doesn't inflation feel like the official 3%?Because inflation is the rate at which prices rise, while affordability is the level of prices you have to live with — and that level never resets. Retirees also buy a different basket than the CPI emphasizes: shelter costs, insurance, property taxes, healthcare, prescriptions, food, and fuel, several of which run far hotter than headline inflation. Oil compounds it, touching every leg of the delivery chain. A resilient retirement plan stress-tests income needs well above the Fed's target and fights back with pricing-power equities, reasonable bond yields, guaranteed lifetime income for core expenses, and tax mitigation that lets you keep more of every distribution.