Inflation looms. How bad will it be?

In this episode, Monika unpacks the growing inflation pressures quietly building beneath the economy and explains why the recent ₹3 fuel price hike is likely only the beginning of a longer and more uncomfortable adjustment cycle. She breaks down the widening gap between wholesale inflation and consumer inflation, showing how the government and oil companies had been absorbing massive fuel losses for months before finally passing some of the burden to consumers. From rising transportation costs to the ripple effects on household expenses, she explains how inflation slowly spreads through every corner of daily life. She also warns that while food prices have remained relatively manageable so far, risks from a weak monsoon and rising fertiliser costs could soon intensify the pressure.She then zooms out to examine the larger global and economic backdrop shaping this decade. What began as a period of strong growth potential for India has instead collided with war-driven supply shocks, volatile commodity prices, and slowing global growth. Monika discusses why higher inflation will likely mean higher interest rates, more expensive loans, slower economic momentum, and greater market volatility in the months ahead. Yet she also cautions against falling into panic or “collapse thinking,” arguing that India still has the policy capacity to manage the crisis. Her advice throughout is grounded and practical: postpone unnecessary expenses, avoid risky speculation, maintain liquidity, and focus on financial resilience rather than dramatic portfolio changes. The larger message is one of disciplined realism — difficult periods require prudence, patience, and perspective, not fear.In listener queries, Abhishek Kumar seeks guidance on building separate investment plans for his daughter’s education and his retirement while planning an eventual return to India, leading to a discussion on long-term SIPs, NRE investing, and disciplined asset allocation; Meera asks how to thoughtfully deploy a ₹1 crore windfall after exiting direct equity investments, raising broader questions around index investing, asset allocation, NPS, and financial planning for single women; and an anonymous 24-year-old IT professional looks for clarity on building his very first long-term investment portfolio, prompting a conversation on keeping portfolios simple, using index funds effectively, balancing equity and debt, and avoiding unnecessary complexity early in the investing journey.Chapters:(00:00 – 00:00) Why Inflation Is Starting to Show Up Everywhere(00:00 – 00:00) Fuel Prices, Global Shocks and the Cost of Living Ahead(00:00 – 00:00) Building Long-Term Wealth as an NRI Returning to India(00:00 – 00:00) Designing a Safe ₹1 Crore Portfolio Without Losing Growth(00:00 – 00:00) A Simple Investing Framework for a 24-Year-Old BeginnerIf you have financial questions that you’d like answers for, please email us at ⁠[email protected]⁠ Monika’s book on basic money management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-money-english/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Monika’s book on mutual funds⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-mutual-funds/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Monika’s workbook on recording your financial life⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-legacy/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Calculators⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://investor.sebi.gov.in/calculators/index.html⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠You can find Monika on her social media @monikahalan. Twitter ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Production House: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.inoutcreatives.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Production Assistant:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Anshika Gogoi⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠