Insurance Against Zero: Bonds, Geopolitics & the New Recession Play

Today's episode unpacks the confusing signals across energy, central banks, and tech earnings. We examine how markets are increasingly pricing in worst-case geopolitical scenarios—and why high-quality bonds are becoming an unlikely haven in a world bracing for disruption, not inflation. Topic timings: 0:00 - Introduction, 1:00 - Geopolitical Flashpoints & Oil Markets, 8:28 - The Fragile State of Global Diplomacy, 15:03 - Central Bank Tightropes & Persistent Inflation, 18:22 - Tech Earnings & the AI Revolution, 21:00 - The Shifting Global Economic Landscape, 23:00 - Conclusion Read this edition in full at https://www.pers-int.com/?digest=Macro%2C%20Geopolitics%2C%20Investing%20Evening%2FCompact_Digests%2Fdaily_digest_compact_2026-04-10_17-30-16.html&channel=Macro%2C%20Geopolitics%2C%20Investing%20Evening&latest=1 0:00 - Introduction 1:03 - Geopolitical Flashpoints & Oil Markets 8:09 - The Fragile State of Global Diplomacy 14:45 - Central Bank Tightropes & Persistent Inflation 18:03 - Tech Earnings & the AI Revolution 21:36 - The Shifting Global Economic Landscape 24:52 - Conclusion Referenced sources: - "EM Fixed Income Will EM markets keep trading Iran conflict de-escalation" (At Any Rate) - "DOJ Opens Probe Into NFL's Sports TV Deals" (Bloomberg Intelligence) - "Bloomberg Surveillance TV April 10th, 2026" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "CPI in Focus as US-Iran Peace Talks Near" (Bloomberg Surveillance) - "Macro Matters Fed Past & Future with BNY's Reinhart" (FICC Focus) - "Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom Weekly Roundup" (Forward Guidance) - "The ceasefire, Africa and Senior Companies and Markets Show" (Investors' Chronicle) - "Ep. 353 Rory Johnston on the Hormuz Ceasefire, Oil Supply Losses, and Navigating Energy Security" (Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez) - "MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis" (Macro Voices) - "Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty, Democratic Wins, and Musk vs. Altman" (Pivot) - "The Ceasefire Won't Save The Economy - ft. Mark Zandi" (Prof G Markets) - "Key Players Pivot to Robots, AI Agents Proliferate Trading the Markets With AI" (Real Vision: Finance & Investing) - "A shaky ceasefire" (Swamp Notes) - "The Civilization Trump Destroys May Be Our Own" (The Ezra Klein Show) - "Fareed Zakaria on the Moral Cost of Trump's War" (The Ezra Klein Show) - "In Iran, an Uneasy Calm Amid a Cease-Fire" (The Journal.) - "Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis" (The Macro Trading Floor) - "Big Tech Opportunity" (The Markets) - "Software Winners & Losers in the Age of AI (wAlex Rubalcava & Paul Bricault) #626" (The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing) - "U.S Consumer Spending Meets Caution" (Thoughts on the Market) - "Across the Pond A new normal after the ceasefire" (UBS On-Air: Market Moves) - "UBS On-Air Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Affording a war'" (UBS On-Air: Market Moves) - "What has changed" (Unhedged) This episode is independent commentary and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by the sources listed above.