Insurgents Rarely Win: Adaptation in the Face of Failure

This episode explores both the recent history and the future character of insurgency. Our guests are former US Ambassador to Iraq, Turkey, and Albania James Jeffrey and Dr. David Ucko, a professor at the National Defense University and author of the book The Insurgent’s Dilemma: A Struggle to Prevail. They begin by arguing that insurgency will play an important role in great power competition, although states’ objectives will change from the transformational nation-building goals of the post-9/11 era to more hard-nosed security and political objectives. They then argue that despite perceived recent failures in counterinsurgency in cases such as the US intervention in Afghanistan, insurgencies rarely win—this has led insurgent groups to adopt new theories of victory. Lastly, our guests discuss policy implications, especially how to balance military and civilian means to counter insurgency. Intro music: "Unsilenced" by Ketsa Outro music: "Launch" by Ketsa CC BY-NC-ND 4.0