Iowa's March Revenue Forecast, Government Overreach & Candidate Filing Day

Six years ago this week, the WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic — and within days, America shut down. Chris Hagenow and John Hendrickson mark the anniversary with a candid conversation about why the biggest policy event of a generation has been largely memory-holed, and why that's dangerous. Iowa, under Governor Kim Reynolds, was among the best-managed states in the country — but the national reckoning on government overreach, civil liberties violations, and accountability for public health officials has never arrived. Worse, the trillions in federal stimulus spending that followed are still rippling through Iowa's fiscal reality today in the form of inflation and a strained state budget.The Iowa Revenue Estimating Conference released its March forecast this week, and the numbers tell an important story. Iowa's FY2026 general fund revenues are projected at $8.111 billion — down 9.3% from the prior year, with the current year revised down an additional $46 million from December due to federal tax changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The good news: Moody's and Fitch both reaffirmed Iowa's Triple-A credit rating, citing conservative budgeting and a strong fiscal foundation built over years of disciplined leadership. Revenue is projected to recover in FY2027 ($8.499B, +4.2%) and FY2028 ($8.717B, +2.9%) — and Iowa's 2018 sales tax base broadening, which doesn't get nearly enough credit, is showing up as a stabilizing force in the state's revenue mix right now.Not all the fiscal news is smooth. Iowa faces a $78 million Medicaid shortfall for FY2026 and a projected $200 million deficit for FY2027. Chris and John break down why Medicaid and education spending are the warning flags even the credit rating agencies are flagging, and why holding the line on spending discipline is the only path that keeps Iowa's landmark tax reforms intact. As Director Paulsen made clear: Iowa has the reserves to manage through this — but only if the legislature stays the course.Today is also the final deadline for Iowa candidates to file petitions for the June 2 primary, and ITR Live is tracking the field in real time. From the governor's race to legislative seats, Chris gives a live rundown of what to watch — including one Republican congressional candidate who dropped out this week. John also teases a new debate posted at ITRFoundation.org: a back-and-forth on "What is Conservatism?" that's worth your time. Subscribe to ITR Live on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts — and share the show with someone who wants Iowa's most informed conservative commentary.0:00 - Welcome & Intro1:27 - Trivia: The Irish Confederate "Stonewall of the West"5:50 - COVID at 6 Years: The Reckoning America Isn't Having10:22 - Iowa vs. the Nation: How Reynolds Got It Right11:00 - COVID's Lasting Damage: Schools, Mental Health & Inflation14:16 - Stimulus Spending, Overreach & the Accountability Nobody Wants16:30 - March REC Forecast: Breaking Down Iowa's Revenue Numbers19:23 - Moody's & Fitch Reaffirm Iowa's Triple-A Credit Rating21:29 - Iowa's Medicaid Problem: $78M Now, $200M Coming in FY2723:47 - The 2018 Tax Reform Nobody Talks About (But Should)26:36 - First Look at FY2028 Revenue Projections30:21 - Iowa Candidate Filing Deadline: Who's In, Who's Out32:25 - New: The Conservatism Debate at ITRFoundation.org33:14 - Outro