Iran at the Fault Line: Geopolitics, Markets & EM Risks

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Zachary Griffiths speaks with Regis Chatellier, Head of Emerging Market Sovereign Strategy at CreditSights, and Lauren Gilbert, Senior Political Science Analyst at GeoQuant, about the escalating situation in Iran and its global market implications. They analyze the aftermath of January 2026 protests, examining GeoQuant's proprietary political risk models showing elevated risk comparable to 2019-2020 levels. The conversation explores the tail risk of a Strait of Hormuz blockade and its potential impact on oil prices, with countries like Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar facing significant export disruptions. They discuss the Trump administration's unpredictability following the Venezuela intervention, ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, and military asset positioning in the region. The episode examines Iran's critical role supplying oil and drones to Russia and China, while sovereign spreads trade at their tightest levels since 2007 despite geopolitical risks. They conclude with investment recommendations, highlighting opportunities in Latin America, Morocco, and Dominican Republic, while expressing caution on Turkey and Asia. Listen now to gain expert perspectives on emerging market credit positioning amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty in 2026.