EPISODE · Mar 25, 2026 · 9 MIN

Iran cease fire?

from Lumida Wealth : Non-Consensus Invest Beyond the Ordinary · host Justin Guilder

00:00 - Soho Event & New York Conference 00:36 - The Ceasefire Gambit: Why a Deal is Unlikely 01:00 - Trump’s Urgency vs. IRGC’s Deterrence 01:45 - The Tanker Crisis and Global Oil Flow 02:26 - Missile Effectiveness and Defense Interceptors 03:28 - The Trust Deficit and the Ukraine Precedent 05:37 - Market Volatility: Fading the Gap Up 07:13 - Israel’s Existential Stance and Netanyahu’s Incentives 08:25 - The Path to Coercion in the Strait of Hormuz Connect with Us Online:Lumida NewsLumida DealsLumida WealthLumida ETF Watch the video on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@Lumida_Wealth🌐 Website: https://www.lumidawealth.com🐦 Twitter Follow us on https://twitter.com/LumidaWealth🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lumidawealth📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lumidawealth📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lumidawealth 

Episode metadata supplied by the publisher feed · Published Mar 25, 2026

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What this episode covers

In this late-night update, Lumida Wealth Management explores the complexities of the current geopolitical standoff and its mounting pressure on global markets. The episode dives deep into the stalled ceasefire negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran, examining the conflicting incentives of key players including the IRGC, Israel, and the U.S. government. From the "coercion" required to reach an outcome to the tangible impact on oil tankers, gasoline prices, and the S&P 500's sensitivity to energy, we break down why a quick resolution remains unlikely. We also discuss the shifting defensive landscape, including the rising effectiveness of Iranian missile strikes and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz.