Iran-Israel 12-Day War: Implications for Persian Gulf's Security Order

The 12-day war between Iran and Israel revealed certain realities about the regional order for the Gulf Arabs, while also offering lessons for the future. The current order in the Persian Gulf is influenced by the US’ “Pivot to the East” strategy and the containment of China. The effects of this approach are evident in Israel’s increased presence in the region and the Abraham Accords. Following Hamas’ 7 October attack on Israel, the decimation of the group, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Tel Aviv has sought to impose its desired order in the region. Israel’s recent attack on Iran, as well as the US’ own strikes,  have heightened concerns about the dominance of Israel’s preferred order in the region. On the other hand, Iran’s response by hitting the American Al-Udeid base in Qatar, has raised Gulf worries about maintaining neutrality in a direct war between Israel/the US and Iran. These countries, in pursuit of an independent role, aim to continue diplomacy with Iran to shape their desired security order in the region — a diplomacy that largely prevented the expansion of war in the region.