Iran Risks War For ‘Hollow’ Nuclear Program (S01E11)

(Video: I appeared as a guest today morning on India’s Southera Network, a newly launched digital first channel.)Thursday, February 26, 2026, ParisIran and the US held another round of talks in Geneva today in an attempt to avert a war that neither of them want but both are preparing to fight.Iran said it had given the US the written proposal Washington had requested. The Iranian position is fairly clear. Tehran is willing to tolerate severe limits on or even a suspension of its enrichment of uranium in exchange for sanctions relief, but won’t even discuss its nuclear program or its support for allies across the Middle East.Washington remains all over the map on what it actually is prepared to accept to avoid a war. The US began amassing an armada around Iran because of perceptions of Tehran’s weakness following the horrific violence of the January protests and its own strength following the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. But it now finds itself confused. We’re getting different messages from President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Vice-President JD Vance. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US wants Iran to mothball its facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in perpetuity and commit to zero enrichment for ever, while allowing it to maintain its Tehran research facility used for producing cancer medications.Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at SciencesPo in Paris, told me earlier today that Iran would likely reject such a proposal. “I don’t think the Iranians would be willing to accept zero enrichment in perpetuity with no sunset provisions,” the Russia and Iran specialist said. “I think the Iranians are more or less going to push for some kind of moratorium on enrichment and then some kind of ability to have civilian nuclear energy.”But maybe Iran should accept the US terms. After all, it was Iran’s vast arsenal of missiles and not its enrichment that ultimately served as a deterrent during the 12-day war. It was the barrage of rockets and drones that hit Tel Aviv prompting Israel to ask the US to intervene and put an end to the conflict. And it is that same conventional arsenal worrying US war planners about the consequences of any major attack on Iran.“The nuclear program has proven to be somewhat hollow in terms of defending Iranians as well as in economic terms.” — Nicole Grajewski, SciencesPoThe enrichment program was supposed to establish Iran as a nuclear threshold state not to be trifled with. But it didn’t prevent Israel and the US from bombing it last June.“If I were the Iranians I would accept some kind of deal,” Grajewski said. “The nuclear program has proven to be somewhat hollow in terms of defending Iranians as well as in economic terms.”So much of what is happening between Iran and the US is rooted in psychology rather than strategy. Trump doesn’t want to revert to a version of the same deal made by Barack Obama in 2015 that he ultimately ripped up, even though he probably should.Iran’s Supreme Leader doesn’t want to admit that Iran’s nuclear program, into which the country has poured so much in resources and lost opportunity costs has been a failure, even though he probably should.“A lot of the issues don’t make sense from a logical perspective,” Grajewski said. “For Iran, the nuclear program is about prestige.”Certainly the nuclear program is a source of national pride for a certain smaller and smaller segment of the regime. But the But the Fordow and Natanz facilities America wants dismantled were probably destroyed last year anyway. And if it’s about prestige, Iran can take immense pride in the fact that its universities are already producing world-class physicists capable of building a nuclear program from scratch. Iran proved its point. Iran can continue to claim to be a nuclear threshold state. Take the W and move on. Get sanctions removed. Improve the economy. Instead, the awful regime in Tehran is gambling with the fate of the country and its 93 million people by incurring the wrath of the awful regime in Washington.(Please excuse typos. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber to support my work.) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit borzou.substack.com/subscribe