Iran War, Midterm Tea Leaves, Trump Fires Noem

Mike and Michael open with a discussion of the widening U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran and the debate over whether President Trump’s military action constitutes a limited campaign or the start of a broader regional war. Mike argues the strike is risky but legally permissible under the War Powers Resolution and sees multiple plausible rationales for it, while Michael contends it amounts to an illegal war that bypassed Congress and risks unintended consequences both geopolitically and domestically.  Next, the guys analyze the first major signals from the 2026 midterm cycle after primaries in Texas and North Carolina and consider whether Democrats could plausibly take back the Senate. Michael argues the expanding map and several competitive races suggest the Senate may genuinely be in play for Democrats, while Mike is more skeptical and sees something like a 50–50 Senate as the best realistic outcome for Democrats, noting the growing number of Republican retirements as a strong indicator that Democrats are very likely to capture the House. They close with a look at President Trump’s firing of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and the surprising decision to nominate Senator Markwayne Mullin as her replacement. Michael argues Noem’s removal followed mounting scandals and leadership failures, but warns Mullin’s appointment signals an unserious approach to governing, while Mike suggests Trump prioritizes loyalty and public messaging over managerial competence in choosing high-profile cabinet figures.  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesThe Politics Guys on Facebook | XListener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys.The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.