“Irretrievability; or, Murphy’s Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” by Eliezer Yudkowsky

Example 1: The Viking 1 lander In the 1970s, NASA sent a pair of probes to Mars, Viking 1 and Viking 2 missions, at a total cost of 1 billion dollars[1970], equivalent to about 7 billion dollars[2025]. The Viking 1 probe operated on Mars's surface for six years, before its battery began to seriously degrade. One might have thought a battery problem like that would spell the irrevocable end of the mission. The probe had already launched and was now on Mars, very far away and out of reach of any human technician's fixing fingers. Was it not inevitable, then, that if any kind of technical problem were to be discovered long after the space launch in August 1975, nothing could possibly be done? But the foresightful engineers of the Viking 1 probe had devised a plan for just this class of eventuality, which they had foreseen in general, if not in exact specifics. They had built the Viking 1 probe to accept software updates by radio receiver, transmitted from Earth. On November 11, 1982, Earth sent an update to the Viking 1 lander's software, intended to make sure the battery only discharged down to a minimum voltage level [...] ---Outline:(00:13) Example 1: The Viking 1 lander(04:25) Example 2: The Mars Observer(11:37) Example 3: The Maginot Line(15:37) Other supposed refutations of oneshotness(24:16) On the extraordinary efforts put forth to misinterpret the idea of oneshotness(33:52) The secret sauce of competent engineers in Murphy-cursed fields: only trying projects so incredibly straightforward as to be actually possible. The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: May 4th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fbrz9xhKpEeTKw5zL/irretrievability-or-murphy-s-curse-of-oneshotness-upon-asi --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.