Is Commercial Real Estate Crashing or Recovering?

Where is commercial real estate headed in 2026? Is the market crashing, recovering, or simply resetting? In this episode, Gino Barbaro breaks down the latest multifamily market data and explains why the answer depends entirely on where you're investing. Using current market trends, rent growth statistics, supply and demand dynamics, construction data, and transaction volume, Gino explains what investors should be paying attention to right now. In this episode, you'll learn: • Why national rent growth remains historically weak • Which markets are outperforming due to low supply • Why high-supply markets continue to struggle • What falling construction starts mean for future investors • Why transaction volume remains muted • The importance of understanding market cycles • How to analyze occupancy and concessions • Why "no deal is better than a bad deal" Some of the markets discussed include: ✔ New York ✔ Chicago ✔ Detroit ✔ Kansas City ✔ Phoenix ✔ Denver ✔ Austin ✔ Orlando ✔ Dallas ✔ East Tennessee One of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming every market behaves the same way. As Gino explains, understanding your market's supply, demand, occupancy, concessions, and development pipeline can mean the difference between buying a great deal and buying a disaster. Key takeaways from this episode: 📈 Low supply markets continue to outperform 📉 High supply markets remain under pressure 🏗 Construction starts are declining rapidly 💰 Transaction volume remains slow 🧠 Patience may be the greatest competitive advantage in today's market If you're investing in multifamily real estate, commercial property, apartment buildings, or simply trying to understand where the market is headed next, this episode provides a data-driven framework for making smarter investment decisions. 00:00 – Is Commercial Real Estate Crashing or Recovering? 00:40 – Why the Answer Depends on Your Market 01:25 – National Rent Growth Remains Weak in 2026 02:20 – Why the Commercial Real Estate "Debt Wall" Hasn't Arrived 03:20 – Low Supply Markets Are Winning 04:30 – Why New York Rents Increased 18% 05:20 – High Supply Markets Continue to Struggle 06:30 – Phoenix, Denver, Austin & Orlando Rent Declines 07:45 – Why Supply Beats Demand in the Short Term 08:30 – Retail, Office & Self Storage Outlook 09:20 – The Two Metrics Every Investor Must Track 10:30 – Construction Starts Are Falling Fast 11:30 – Why Less Construction Creates Future Opportunity 12:20 – Transaction Volume Remains Weak 13:30 – What Makes a Good Multifamily Deal in 2026? 15:00 – Questions Every Investor Should Ask Right Now 16:15 – Final Multifamily Market Outlook 17:30 – "No Deal Is Better Than a Bad Deal" 📚 SPONSOR: This episode was brought by WHEEL BARROW PROFITS. Check their page:https://wheelbarrowprofits.com/ 🤖 ZenAI:https://bit.ly/zenAI_bpp_jandg 🩺 TruDiagnostic:https://www.trudiagnostic.com/ Use code: JAKEANDGINO for 20% OFF We're here to help create real estate entrepreneurs...  About Jake & Gino: Jake & Gino are multifamily investors, operators, and owners who have created a vertically integrated real estate company. They control over $350M in assets under management. Connect with Jake & Gino here --> https://jakeandgino.com. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.