Is NATO Misreading Putin’s Risk Appetite?

As the conflict between the West and Putin’s Russia escalates without guardrails, would the Kremlin dare to launch a military incursion into NATO territory in coming years? With the mercurial Donald Trump at the helm of NATO’s most consequential power, how might NATO react to an attack against a member state? These were the questions addressed in a German war game, Ernstfall, co-hosted by Die Welt newspaper and the German Wargaming Center, which has sparked a lively policy debate inside NATO. Alexander Gabuev, who played Vladimir Putin in the exercise, is joined by the two main architects of the war game to take listeners backstage and discuss the making of Ernstfall and its policy implications. Check out the Politico article about the war game, and read Alex Gabuev’s New York Times piece about it here. Excerpts from the Ernstfall podcast are copyrighted by Die Welt and are reproduced here with permission. Listen to that podcast here.