Is the AI Boom the Next Dot-Com Bubble? | Cameron Dawson

The AI productivity boom everyone is celebrating isn’t real. Strip out semiconductor operating leverage, and the average S&P 500 company is still below its 2022 margin highs. What looks like a productivity story is really just fixed-cost businesses growing into their capacity.Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at New Edge Wealth, joins Jim Iuorio and Bobby Iaccino to break down what's really driving markets and what history says could happen next.Timestamp00:00 Intro and Sponsors02:08 Friday's Sell-Off: Was It Anything to Worry About02:28 SOX 76% Above 200-Day: the Rerating That Already Happened04:19 Repricing, Not a Reckoning: Unprofitable Tech Up 65% Since March Lows05:05 Dot-Com Bubble Parallels in Today's Market06:28 The Two Components of Every Bubble: Real Earnings and Speculation07:02 Real Earnings Existed in 1999 Too09:01 What Happened to Unprofitable Tech in 2021: 80-90% Drawdowns10:49 Jim's SMH Back Spread Trade13:13 How Important Is the Consumer in This Capex Cycle13:57 The Stock Market Is Now More Important for the Consumer Than Vice Versa15:06 Real Wages Negative: Consumers Dipping Into Savings16:24 We Are All One Trade: Why Micron's Gross Margin Is the Number That Matters16:59 Volatility That Hurts: It's About Duration, Not Just Magnitude17:52 US Large Cap Tech at 97th Percentile Positioning19:00 1973 vs Today: Why This Oil Shock Is Different20:54 Big Tech Shift: From Spending Cash to Raising Equity22:28 CapEx Growth Forecasts: 10% Last Year, 80% for 202623:14 Google's Equity Offering: Tone Shift or Chink in the Armor25:32 Why Frontier Models Won't Turn a Profit26:30 Retail Now Drives Two-Thirds of Market Volume26:54 Institutions Got to First Percentile Positioning29:34 What Would Actually Trigger a 2000 or 2008 Scenario30:02 History: 1996 to NASDAQ Peak in March 200031:25 How Cameron Defines a Bubble32:42 Gold Breaking Down34:11 Gold Below 200-Day for the First Time in Three Years35:11 Gold Is Only an Inflation Hedge When the Fed Isn't Fighting It36:44 Why Hot Inflation Was Always the Worst Thing for Gold40:27 Infrastructure Players Rarely Win41:15 The AI Productivity Boom Is Actually Semiconductor Operating Leverage42:22 Micron: Negative Margins Three Years Ago, 80% Gross Margins Today42:46 Strip Out Semis: Average S&P Still Below 2022 Margin Highs43:34 Copper and Industrial Metals Stronger Than Precious for 3 Months45:15 SpaceX IPO: What Sector, What Valuation, What It Signals47:49 S&P Pushes Back on Relaxing Profitability Rule48:54 Palantir Parallel: 90x Sales Marked the Top51:15 Closing Thoughts: Travel, Italy, Costa Rica Stay Connected With Us  https://x.com/bob_iaccino https://x.com/jimiuorio  https://www.linkedin.com/in/bob-iaccino/  https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-iuorio/ For business inquiries: [email protected]