IS THE ECONOMIST STILL A CONTRA? episode artwork

EPISODE · Oct 22, 2024 · 0 MIN

IS THE ECONOMIST STILL A CONTRA?

from Capital Flows and Asset Markets · host Russell Clark

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.russell-clark.comIf you are wondering what a contra is - its an indicator that the market has gone too far, and ready for a tumble. One of the most famous, possibly made-up example, is Joe Kennedy selling the stock market after getting stock tips from a shoeshine boy in 1929. The cover of the Economist is seen as a leading contra indicator - and has been subject of studies. In my working experience, the cover from late 2009 lauding Brazil was as close to a perfect contra indicator as you could get.And indeed, it marked the top in EWZ US - the MSCI Brazil ETF.So is this the top in the US? Well unfortunately, there have been plenty of contra covers on the US in recent years - all of them wrong.Why did the Economist cover indicator used to work? And why does it not now?

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