stocks, bonds, ETFs straight out of downtown Chicago. This is Zach's Market Edge. Welcome to Zach's Market Edge, the podcast about investing in your life. I'm your host, Tracy Reinek.
And this week, I'm going solo to talk about the magnificent seven stocks. Are they over? Is it dead? Remember, we had fang with the two ends.
Then we had fang man, and then we had the magnificent seven. And why did the other two die fang and fang man? Because everyone wanted to put Tesla into the group, but the letter T just didn't really work. So they ditched fang and fang man.
They went to the magnificent seven a couple of years ago. But it looks like to me, at least, that this designation might be hitting the road as well. And I'm not sure what's going to take its place, but something will, as we already know. So if you can recall, the magnificent seven stocks, which is obviously seven large cap stocks, mostly technology or somehow technology related, I'm looking at my list just to make sure I don't miss anything.
So they are Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, NVIDIA, and Metaplatforms. So those were the magnificent seven. Many of those were also in fang or fang man. The one that's missing that got kind of booted is Netflix.
But that's an interesting story unto itself right now as well. Maybe we need to bring Netflix back in, kick Tesla back out, and maybe it survives. But maybe it really doesn't. So a couple of days ago, we passed the halfway mark on this year.
Yeah, we're already into the second half of 2025. It goes by fast. And some people were putting out a lot of data, obviously year to date type of data. But one of my favorite kind of data gurus that are on X is Charlie Belello.
He's at Creative Planning. And for years, he has put out data showing what the one year, five years, 10 years, 15 years, and even 20 years, the big winners in the S&P 500, which stocks perform the best over those periods. I like to look at these charts because we think we know what are the best performing stocks, but then we're surprised at what is actually on the list. Now, remember, these are just the big caps because that's the S&P 500.
So we're not going to get any of the smaller medium size or even some hot small cap stocks, like that hot restaurant chain or some of those kind of meme stocks that launched or like a new IPO that might be on the smaller side. We're not going to get those on this list, but these should be the relatively well known companies because these are among the largest. Now, I was checking it out. I noticed something interesting about these lists.
Really what I was drawn to was that the Magnificent Seven really isn't well represented. Now this time period is from July 1, 2020. So while the pandemic was going on, we were up off those lows from March 2020, but we hadn't yet gotten the vaccine, which would come in November and then the stock market would really soar. Economy was mostly shut down globally during this period.
So that's where the starting point was if you're looking back five years and it goes through June 30 of 2025. So it's not year to year of the five years, but it's that partial half year, but still very interesting to see. And looking back at those five years, again, I was surprised to see that not much representation from the Magnificent Seven, how could that be? That's all we're talking about.
And we're, you know, they're trillion dollar market companies now. And how could they not be at the forefront of the top performers over those five years? There is one, however, and I know you know which one it is. It's not number one on the list of the last five years, surprisingly, but it is number two and it is Nvidia, ticker and VDA.
Of course, you knew it would be there. And Nvidia is one of the, if not the best performing stock. Let me look. Yes, in the last 10 years, 15 years and now 20 years.
Prior to the AI revolution, however, it really was Netflix that held that title, at least the 10 year title from Netflix being at the top there. And Netflix still shows up in the 10 year list and the 15 year list and in the 20 years still still holding up. But it is not in the top 20 on the five year list anymore for Netflix. So who is number one?
If it's not Nvidia, it is super micro computer, SMC, I, the other very hot AI revolution play in partnership with Nvidia. So at the end of June, for the five years, it was up 1,626%. Nvidia up 1,569%. This is off of Charlie's data.
And then number three, an interesting defense name that I've talked about recently on this podcast, How Met Aerospace ticker HWM as a Mary HWM up 1,089%. And then you see some other well-known names. Number five is Broadcom AVGO. That's been a red hot stock the last five years.
884%. This is just the five years. So you're doing pretty good. If you're in any of these stacks, you're well outperforming during this time period, the S&P 500 also had a very good run, but it was up about 98%.
So if you were just in the S&P, you were doing about 20% annual, which is outstanding above the average for the S&P 500. Hard to beat 20%, but all these companies are beating it. Even with the Liberation Day sell-off, which has rebounded a bit, but even with all that going on, you still have these outstanding returns. Now there is one retailer on the five year list, and it was a surprise to me.
I would never have guessed this one. It's Tapestry. That's Coach. Ticker TPR, also Kate Spade, up 643%.
Tapestry, it's on here. What else is on here? One that we've talked about recently, Palo Alto Networks made the list at number 18. Ticker PANW for that one, up 435%.
And United Rentals. They do rental equipment. They've been crushing it with the big infrastructure bill, all the construction that's going on. That's where you go to rent it all.
And that's Ticker URI. And they have really come off their recent heist, actually. But still up 420% over that five year period. One of my other favorites also shows up on this list, Travel, at number 13, Royal Caribbean.
Ticker RCL up 529%. But as you can see, I'm listing all these companies. There is no one else. There is no Microsoft.
There is no Amazon. There is no meta. Even though some of these stocks like Microsoft and Meta have been hitting new all-time highs recently. Where are they?
I had to go look. What did they do? They didn't even make the top 20. So Meta was up 208.1%.
Not too shabby. It's double the S&P 500, but not good enough to make the top 20 on this list. Alphabet also beat the S&P 500 up 139.3%. So that's not too shabby either over a five year period.
But comparatively, people are thinking, gee, I missed out. Apple, it's been struggling recently, but still up 128% on the five years. So 25% annual. You're doing well.
You're winning. If you get that return, Tesla also struggling recently, but five years back still up 273%. That's outstanding. Almost triple the S&P 500.
They only laggard. The one that didn't beat the S&P 500. Amazon, ticker AMZN. Are you surprised by this?
I was really surprised. I own it in my own personal portfolio. It was up only 52.5%. It does not pay a dividend.
So you are really underperforming the S&P 500 if you were in Amazon the last five years as I was. And Warren Buffett, he's in it too. He's underperforming for those five years. But you still at about 10% annualized return, which is right around where the S&P 500 is averaged.
So not too terrible, but terrible comparative to what everything else has been doing. So Amazon, really the laggard here, it is among the cheaper of the Magnificent Seven. So is it just that Amazon is done now? It's matured.
It's growth days are over. It's going to have this slower growth and the street and investors are going to treat it in the slower growth type of way. I don't know. We won't know until we see how it plays out on the 10-year stack.
Nvidia, still number one, as I mentioned, these returns are just kind of incredible and these are the lottery stocks. But Nvidia, I know many of you own it. Up 32,357%. I can't believe I'm saying these numbers.
Number two, AMD. Number two, and that was up 5,813%. That's incredible as well. Tesla makes this list at number nine of 1,676%.
So we all know about those Tesla millionaires, the real believers in Tesla who went in and bought it before they rolled out the cars, they believed in Elon, they knew he could make an EV, they love the car design, and they were first in to buy the EV once it did roll off. And that was five or six years ago now, five years ago. And so a lot of the 10-year returns were built into those early years and the hope of getting the cars to the market and the shares really took off then. Netflix is on the 10-year list at number 13 at 1,327% and then Microsoft, which was mostly doomed for the prior years.
Remember it peaked in 2000. It didn't peak again, it did not hit those 2000 highs until 2013, 13 years later, but it returned thanks to a big rally in this last 10 years and it's at number 17 at 1,199%. But notice there is no Apple, there is no Amazon. Meta went public in 2012, so it should be on this 10-year list, but it wasn't good enough to make it into the top 20.
I'm not saying those, their returns were terrible in those 10 years either, but they still weren't good enough to make the top 20 out of the S&P 500. 15 years, you see Microsoft fall off because it wasn't good going all the way back. So 15 years would have been 2010 and Microsoft still hadn't gotten back to its prior high yet. So we still have NVIDIA at number one at 67,393%.
I'm laughing here. Tesla at 19,895%. Netflix, this was a big era for Netflix starting in the early 2000s, if you bought that stock, 8,528%. That's when they were sending out the little red envelopes in the early 2000s, but if you were a believer, you had these enormous gains over the last 15 years.
And finally showing up at number 17 with 3,916%. But are you surprised at the hat that over the last 15 years since 2010, it isn't better in Amazon? Over the 20 years stack, so we're going back to 2005. So the .com boom happened, the bust happened, and the stocks were trying to recover by 2005 and would hit new highs the overall S&P 500 would in 2007, if you recall.
So the worst was kind of over in 2005, but still we had some lagging like Microsoft, but if you managed to buy in 2005 when everybody was against a lot of the big tech, you had enormous gains. So NVIDIA still number one at 77,270%. I'm laughing again. Netflix number two, 57,023%.
And then Apple finally showing up on this list. Number four, this was before the iPhone, but we had the iPod. We had some other great devices. They were working on the phone or some other device.
People were into Steve Jobs and what he was doing at the company. So the stock was soaring there. So number four, Apple 18,446% because the stock really took off once the iPhone launched and Amazon it bottomed out there in these years. So if you manage to get in it, then it did take off number five at 13,160.
So we really don't see alphabet anywhere. It's not been in the top 20 as one of the best performers for the 20 years, the 15 years, the 10 years or the five years. Again, I'm not saying alphabet's return has been terrible over those years, but it hasn't outperformed as much as some of these other no names, stocks or stocks you think you know, obviously Nvidia and then Netflix. There's reason Netflix was included in the Fang Man, right?
Or that Fang had two ends because we really did one include Netflix, which was one of the hottest stocks of the last two decades in there. So I'm going on to ZX.com. Oh, shoot, they took off the 20 year. We used to have a 20 year chart on these comparative charts and I just brought it up for alphabet here.
I'm going to add symbol here and I'm going to add the S&P 500. I'm just adding that to these charts. This one isn't like the greatest. It does have the scale, but I want percentage change here.
Okay, so alphabet is this blue line and then you have S&P 500, which is the IVV is this greenish chart true slide here. And this is the 10 year chart because that's the most that we have on this chart. So you can see the 10 year, the S&P is up 264% through Tuesday, July 8th. And then alphabet, you can see it has been a nice outperformance.
You're still up 547% if you've owned it the last 10 years. Nothing to be, you know, shamed about there. You don't have Nvidia up 1,600 or no up 32,000%, but you also don't have Microsoft up 1,199%. These are one offs.
If you haven't noticed already, going up over 1000% even in the 10 year stack, that's averaging over 100% a year is not normal. These are the lottery stacks, as I've mentioned, but we all just assumed because they're the magnificent 7, that they are the best of the best and they are not just outperforming, but are getting these super extraordinary gains. And a few of them are specifically in video, a little bit also with Tesla and a little bit with Microsoft now in there, but it's not easy to even get to the 1000% gains. We just think it is, but it's not now let's add Amazon to this list because we know they did not make the list for the top 20.
And so why not? What is happening? Is it going to give it to me? It's acting strangely.
Okay, here we go. It took a little time to get that data for the 10 year in there, but you can see Amazon actually outperforming what the alphabet is doing. And wow, it must have just been off the top 20 on the list because it's up 923.6% on this chart. And remember Microsoft was up 1,199.
I didn't write down all the 10 year ones, but I'm assuming, and that was at 17. So 18, 19 and 20 were probably just around that 1000% level. And so nothing wrong with this Amazon return over the 10 years. It's really just in the last five years.
And you can see it on this chart when you scroll back and see that it's mostly been in this range and it's not really busting out. But same thing kind of with alphabet here. And we aren't getting the huge gains like we see with Royal Caribbean, for instance. Let's add that one in and see what they've done over the last 10 years.
Speaker RCL, we know it's good over five years, but was it good before the pandemic? Okay, it's like it's generating does take a little bit of time to get the 10 year data in there. Okay, interesting. Only in the last here in 2025 has it surpassed the S&P 500 in the 10 years stack now up 375 percent though.
Remember the S&P up 264 and alphabet up 546 Amazon 925. So these are kind of interesting. The other one, I'm going to get rid of Royal Caribbean. The other one that we didn't see on any of these is meta.
What's going on with meta? It maybe it too was just outside of the range here and we just didn't know because it was right outside the range. So the put the ticker in it's generating yes, meta on the 10 year stack. Very nice returns up 745 percent easily beating alphabet and the S&P 500, but underperforming a little bit on Amazon.
So this is interesting. And it pays to look at these 10 year charts. We know with the five year, I can switch it to the five year. So I'm going to do so and just kind of see why none of them showed up also on the five year.
Remember, number 20 was United Rentals URI at 420 percent. I'm also recording this on July 8th. So the data is a little bit different. It's off by eight days, basically, but close enough.
And we see I have meta at 196 percent. And then I did say it was up 208 on the five year that actually tracks all the other data from Charlie. So it's actually falling back a little bit here, but you can see it more visually on the chart and even look at Amazon. Amazon is a little bit weaker here now too.
Now that we've changed the chart just a little bit, it's amazing like even what a couple of days can do depending on what's going on in the step market. So asking just again, we have the underperformance of Amazon. That's the green line right here. This is the S&P 500, this kind of chart, TrueSline.
And then everybody else is above it, including meta. And we had Apple at 128, Tesla at 273 on the other charts, but let's just add them here. Okay. And of course I'm keeping NVIDIA off of here because it's just, it's still number one or close enough.
It's number two on the five year, but it's number one in the MAG 7. So I'm adding Apple. It's generating that one. It's taking some time because it is the five year data and it's got to load all of it.
Okay. So it's kind of in the mix of things there. And then we're going to add Tesla into there. But I added NVIDIA just so you can see, I think I should.
All right. So we're adding Tesla that should be one of the better performers. And you can see, let's see, it's generating, wow, that's so interesting, right? To see Tesla embedded on top of here and how volatile it's been over this five year stack up down, up down, big up to N2024, then the big down on the Liberation Day.
And now it's rallied again. So it's still out of these stacks, the best five year performer. But it won't be once I add NVIDIA here. At least NVIDIA will be far off the top here.
And it's going to take a second to generate that one. It's cursing me the chart. The chart data together because it's a lot of data with these and to show on this little chart. Okay.
So it basically compresses all the other charts down when we add NVIDIA, which is really kind of why I didn't want to add it. Let's change. I have the percentage here and you can see it's up almost 1500% there as we were talking about. But let's do, let's do price.
Just kind of see what happens with that. That is interesting because some have done the splits. So you don't really get as good of an idea of like what's actually going on because you have splits in there. Let's do change of dollars.
So this gives you about the same as well. So I still like to look at the percentage change. So we're going back to that. And I am going to kick off NVIDIA because it kind of makes it not usable here with these small lines.
Sorry about the small lines. I'm not sure why it's so small, but it bothers me all the time too because it's just hard to see when you get out five or the 10 year chart on these if you're doing multiple tickers on there. But yeah, this is interesting. And let's look at year to date because year to date also can tell its own story and it clearly does.
So the winner year to date right now out of NVIDIA, it's not on the chart, is meta up 20%. The S&P is up 6.7 and then we have Amazon, mostly flat. Alphabet's down 7.9. Apple is down 13.8 and now I'm realizing I have left off Microsoft.
The other big winner, we're adding them in. Not sure what they will look like on here. Okay, so they are up towards the top. They have also been performing well.
No. Why are they not showing up? It's on there. It's giving me the other ones, but not the Microsoft ticker.
It's on the chart though. Why aren't you on there? All right. I'm going to get rid of Tesla real quick and see if that fixes it.
Let's see. All right. Okay. It's finally showing up.
Year to date, 18.9%. And on these, I got rid of Tesla and meta. It is at the top of the list now other than let's add back NVIDIA. NVIDIA has been not as hot over the last year, but and you can see it's not even as hot as Microsoft, which is up over 18% year to date and NVIDIA showing up now 15.4.
So it has been breaking out recently. It has been hitting new all-time highs for NVIDIA, but over the last year, not quite as good as what it's been. So getting back to the beginning of this podcast, is it over? Do we even care really?
We care about NVIDIA, but do we really care about the MAG7 as a group anymore? I just clicked on the one-year chart and we have NVIDIA's leading now on the one-year chart. For some reason, it's not giving me the Microsoft, even though it's right there and it's showing up on the chart. That's weird.
We have NVIDIA leading. We actually have Amazon up 10%, but the S&P 500 is up 13.1. And then we have Microsoft right below it. So that's underperforming the S&P 500 alphabet, underperforming down 7.5, Apple down 7.5.
And so you have to ask, if I'm doing better in the S&P 500, why would I be in a magnificent seven at all? And why not just be in the individual names? You already own all of the MAG7s, if you own the S&P 500, obviously. I'm putting in the MAG7 ETF on this chart because I'm kind of curious.
Over the last year, is it giving it to me? Yes. Over the last year, the MAG7 ETF, up 14.4%. So that was outperforming the S&P 500, which I did take off this chart, but that was up a little over 13%.
So you're outperforming, but not by much if you own the MAG7 ETF, which owns just the MAG7. But these aren't the levels of returns that many of you are thinking of when you're thinking of the MAG7, right? The best of the best stocks. And maybe that's because they really aren't anymore.
I'm going to add on, I'm going to get rid of the MAG7, and I'm just going to take a look at Netflix, which has gotten hot recently. And it makes me wonder if maybe we're not going to bring back FangMan. The return of FangMan, maybe that's what I should call this podcast. And look at that, Netflix added on up 86.4% over the last year now.
And year two date, let's see what it's doing year to date. It's going to take a second to load it. So, it's still beating Nvidia easily, 44.1% Nvidia up again, just 15.4 Amazon, mostly flat. So what's going on?
Maybe we're returning to FangMan now. We're kicking Tesla out. We're bringing Netflix back in, but really, maybe others need to be kicked out too. Maybe we need to kick out Apple down 13% or even Amazon, which has lagged over the five-year period.
It's not even outperforming over five years. And maybe we need to bring in some of these other names. Maybe we need to add in Broadcom into the mix. It's been hitting new all-time highs as well, ticker AVGO.
It is also semi-conductors, so maybe people only want one semi-conductor in their list, but I just added it onto there. And this is not going to give it to me again. Why? Why?
It is showing up on the chart, but it's not telling me what it's up. I'm doing the one year out for a Vago. This has got to be it over here. No, it's not showing up.
All right. I'm over you. I'm over you, chart. But it's good to look at these things.
That's why I like looking at Charlie's list. We all think it's easy to pick these top winners. It should be easy. That's why we have FangMan, Magnificent Seven, because that was supposed to be the easy designations.
If you buy these sure things, you'll outperform. You'll get these lottery stocks. Maybe they have some of them outperformed over the last number of years. But the last five years, not as great.
And the last year to date, and the last year, again, a little bit of a struggle with the MAG 7s. Also, the interesting thing is there's been a lot of talk about valuations with the MAG 7s, but they aren't the cheaper of the names in the text space that people look to for growth. If you even just look at Nvidia, for instance, it's not that expensive on a historic basis for that stock right here, especially compared to another AI type name like Palantir, which is trading above 100 times now in the price-to-sales ratio in videos down at 25 times. Remember, anything over 10 times usually indicates it's a bit stretched on the price-to-sales, but many MAG 7s are below 10 on the price-to-sales, and that would be Alphabet.
Also Amazon, both of those are pretty cheap on a price-to-sales ratio basis. And even Meta, I don't believe, is all that stretched on price-to-sales. Let's look real quick. I don't want to mislead anyone.
Even Meta isn't all that stretched. And if we take a look at the price-to-sales ratio on Meta, which I believe is under 10, but let's take a look because I want to give you the right information as always. So if you're on zx.com, you can plug it into the quote page. You're going to get Meta platforms as you can see there.
But if you scroll down on the left side, it gives financials over here in the gray bar, and financial overview is right underneath it. That's where I go to find the price-to-sales ratio. So it's a little pricier than I thought, but not by much. It's showing us at 10.6.
Remember 10 and above is a little stretched on valuations now. So even Meta, a little stretched on price-to-sales, but as I mentioned, Alphabet and Amazon are among the cheapest of the price-to-sales ratios. And I just put in Alphabet's also on the same page, and you can see price-to-sales 5.96. That's cheap for a tech stock, right?
And a MAG 7 stock, for sure. But I want to say Amazon might be cheaper. Let's see. It is.
Price-to-sales 3.65 only for Amazon. So is Amazon a value stack? I could do a whole podcast on that now. You can also see a very low peg ratio for Amazon here at 1.7.
So these are all things to keep in mind when you think you are looking for these quote-unquote sure things. There is no such thing as a sure thing. Most of these MAG 7s are not showing up in the top 20, at least on the five years. They have been outperforming.
However, you don't have to hit the home run stock. It's nice if you can get into Nvidia five or 10 or 20 years ago. But even if you don't, even if you're Warren Buffett and you buy Apple in 2016, nine years ago, he had a huge winner in it. It has driven the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio to new highs, and it's been one of his best stock picks of his career.
So keep that in mind when you're looking at all of these. But I'm thinking we are going to kick out a couple of stocks here. We are going to get something new. It's not going to be the MAG 7 for forever.
And what stocks will be added? I put out a few names out there, but there's always going to be maybe some new ones that are going to be added, maybe a palantier or a Palo Alto network or someone like that might be added in. But we will be watching, of course. So check out Charlie's Twitter because he tweets out all these great charts with the list of the S&P 500 winners.
And he doesn't usually on these like six months, full year kind of time periods, and he's a great follow on X. So let me recap the tickers again that we talked about. Obviously all the MAG 7s, I think we all know what they are, right? I did mention Super Micro because it's the best performer in the last five years.
That's ticker SM as a Mary CIS MCI. We talked just briefly about how much aerospace that's number three on the five year chart. That's ticker HWM. I'm looking at my list here.
Tapestry TPR is the list of the retail. That's the ticker for the retailer. That's Coach and Kate Spade, Royal Caribbean, RCL, still busting out to new highs. We did mention Palo Alto Networks, P-A-N-W.
That's number 18 on the list and United Rentals. You are on this list at number 20, but you didn't think that would be beating some of the MAG 7s. And then Broadcom ticker AVG-O. And that's pretty much covers everybody outside of the MAG 7s, which you know too well.
And then S&P 500, I use VOO or IVV was also on the chart. Any of those ETFs you could be buying just buying the whole entire S&P 500 annualized return for the last five years, close to 20%. So pretty impressive there. And as always, you can get all of our podcasts here on YouTube.
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