Is the Pacific Northwest Headed for Price Declines in 2026?

Welcome back to The Shivers Report.In this episode, Nick and Keegan break down the real numbers from January 2026 compared to January 2025 across the Portland Metro, Polk & Marion Counties, and Clark County—and there are some surprising shifts.For Portland Metro:• New listings down 4.1%• Closed sales down 8.4%• Median price down 5%• Inventory up 6%• Market time increasingA 5% median price drop is a big deal—and could signal the first meaningful nominal depreciation we’ve seen since 2010–2011. Nick believes affordability pressures are finally catching up to the market.In Polk & Marion Counties:• New listings up 16.3%• Pending sales up 5.8%• Median price down 2.2%• Closed sales down 17%And in Clark County:• New listings up 18.5%• Pending sales up 13%• Median price up 3.8%• Average price up nearly 11% (likely due to higher-end homes selling)• Market time up 14 daysWe also discuss:• Why 62% of homes are seeing price adjustments• Why the overall market is leaning buyer—but certain submarkets remain competitive• Why new construction incentives (averaging nearly 10% nationally) don’t show up in median price data• How the Pacific Northwest differs from high-building states like Florida and Texas• Why 2026 may bring flat-to-slight depreciation rather than appreciation• Why we still expect more transactions this spring—even if prices stay pressuredBottom line: inventory is creeping up, affordability is tight, and resale pricing is softening—but demand hasn’t disappeared.People may soon “bite the bullet” and move, even if rates and prices don’t dramatically fall. And with our team posting the highest number of January listings we’ve ever had, activity is already building.2026 won’t be a boom year—but it won’t be a crash either. It’s shaping up to be a strategic market.