ISMS 28: Stocks for the Long Run

Stocks for the Long Run Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs What long-term return do you expect for US stocks? In Siegel’s “Stocks for the Long Run,” he tells us to expect a 5% LT real US stock market return I became a finance teacher in Thailand in 1992 Then started as a financial analyst in 1993 Siegel’s book came out in 1994 and was one of the best references available at the time US nominal returns US real returns More than 200 years of returns 95 years of returns Higher inflation and higher nominal stock market returns, but only slightly higher real returns Slightly lower real LT bond return, near zero ST bond return Post WWII/Bretton Woods 75 years of high inflation Real stock returns up slightly Real LT bond returns down Real ST bond returns down to zero Gold outperformed ST bonds The 21 years after the Dot Com bubble saw an unprecedented level of globalization Inflation was down, and real US stock returns also down Real US LT bond returns up Nominal ST bond collapse, and real returns turn neg. Gold beats all Siegel’s advice Over the long-term, an investor has paid about 15x PE for about 6-7% after inflation US stock market return In the future, expect to pay about 20x PE for about 5% after inflation return Click here to get the PDF with all charts and graphs Andrew’s books How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market My Worst Investment Ever 9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them Transform Your Business with Dr.Deming’s 14 Points Andrew’s online programs Valuation Master Class The Become a Better Investor Community How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market Finance Made Ridiculously Simple FVMR Investing: Quantamental Investing Across the World Become a Great Presenter and Increase Your Influence Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points Achieve Your Goals Connect with Andrew Stotz: astotz.com LinkedIn Facebook Instagram Threads Twitter YouTube My Worst Investment Ever Podcast