Israeli-Palestine Conflict 13. The Black Swan Scenario. An End of the Conflict?

Send us Fan MailOne morning we woke up and Soviet Union was gone.  None of us saw this coming. When I started teaching in the 1970s, I told students there were three conflicts that would go on forever:  Northern Ireland, South Africa, and Israel-Palestine.    But two of those are resolved: Northern Ireland and South Africa. Is it possible that the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict could be resolved short of a catastrophe?  I am going to discuss four scenarios that work elsewhere but will not work here.  Those scenarios are explained more fully on Deep Blue under the title “Strategic Options in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.”   Suggestion: download a map of the West Bank with Areas A and B and C outlined.  A and B are where Palestinians live.  C is where most Jewish settlements are.  When the Israelis talk of annexing the West Bank, most mean Area C.   I discuss the difference between Ashkenazi and Sephardic Jews.  Today the balance of those two groups is about 48-48.  But what if the Ashkenazim began to leave and the balance shifted to 60-40 in favor of the Sephardic Jews?  What would that mean?  The professor I mentioned is Ian Lustick.  He is very good.