James Wharton on Reform's Surge and Starmer's Survival

Sixty episodes ago, James Wharton came on the show with a Labour government struggling to find its sea legs. 15 months later, Keir Starmer is fighting for his job. So we brought James back. Lord Wharton of Yarm — former Conservative MP for Stockton South, the kind of Red Wall seat Reform now eats for breakfast. What we got into: Why Starmer probably survives the week. The would-be regicides aren't coordinated, aren't coalescing, and the PM has called their bluff. The catch: being a process-driven lawyer who decides he wants to stay is a survival strategy until it isn't. The Streeting moment that wasn't. Reports that the Health Secretary tried to see Starmer one-on-one after cabinet, and was told to wait. Why that matters more than it sounds. The Burnham brand puzzle. Why does the press keep calling the Mayor of Greater Manchester the saviour the Labour Party's been waiting for, when the by-election ground nearest his door just went Green? James and Andrew both served alongside him. Both have thoughts. Reform's ceiling problem. 1,453 councillors gained, 14 councils taken, breakthroughs in Scotland and Wales — and vote share still down from last year's locals. James on why this might be peak Reform, not the launchpad it looks like. The non-aggression pact question. Should the Tories cut a deal with Reform? James's answer is emphatic, and Andrew brings in the Canadian comparison — what actually had to happen before Reform and the PCs merged in 2003. The Carney contrast. James's best line of the episode: Carney is pulling off the trick Starmer was elected to do. Also discussed: why Hackney's transgender-sanctuary-and-Palestine-twinning agenda doesn't speed up the bin collection, why Labour quietly cooled on votes at 16 once 16-year-olds started voting Green, and the evening with Liz Truss we both attended the night before recording. Five-party politics, no majorities anywhere, and a Prime Minister whose own MPs can't decide whether to push him or just let him quietly tip over.