January 16-18 | Ledger Recap episode artwork

EPISODE · Jan 19, 2026 · 4 MIN

January 16-18 | Ledger Recap

from Prediction Markets HQ: Daily Sports · host Prediction Markets HQ | Daily Sports Betting, Kalshi & Polymarket Data

In this episode of the Ledger Recap, we audit a 4.3-unit gain to find where the algorithm left money on the table. We break down the systemic pace mispricing in the Cavaliers vs. 76ers game and analyze why playing 'pennies in front of a steamroller' with Dayton's winner contracts was a strategic failure of conviction calibration.Marcus Webb introduces the new 'Conviction-to-Price' rule to prevent buying winner contracts at inefficient prices and discusses the importance of mid-game liquidity and defensive gravity in the Pelicans vs. Pacers collapse.Questions or feedback? Reach out to: [email protected] expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

Episode metadata supplied by the publisher feed · Published Jan 19, 2026

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January 16-18 | Ledger Recap

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