January 2 - Housing Predictions for 2024 | Driving It Home with ABoR's Housing Economist

In this episode of Driving It Home, Dr. Clare Losey and discuss economic predictions for 2024, zooming the lens in on the housing market. Both express cautious optimism for the year, noting the previous year's market shifts, particularly the effects of higher mortgage rates and market adjustments post-pandemic. Dr. Losey predicts that while mortgage rates are expected to decrease gradually, they will likely not drop enough to significantly stimulate refinance activity, although a decline would increase homebuyers' purchasing power.   Dr. Losey offers a nuanced outlook on home prices, expecting them to remain relatively flat, with possible variations of 3-5% up or down, considering the high mortgage rates and elevated home prices since the pandemic. The housing market is still deemed competitive, and the stability in prices would maintain the value for sellers. They also discuss the effects of the upcoming election on the 10-year treasury yield, which could introduce volatility affecting mortgage rates, though any effects are expected to be short-term.   The conversation also touches on the housing market sales, which are anticipated to be flat compared to 2023, influenced by the market's adjustment to post-pandemic conditions and a higher rate environment. Dr. Losey explains that the COVID-19 pandemic led to anomalous market behavior, which is now stabilizing. They speculate on the impact of local regulatory changes on housing supply, particularly in Austin, with the HOME Initiative allowing for more housing units per parcel. The slow pace of construction and the complexity of development regulations temper expectations for rapid changes. They conclude that 2024 could be a more predictable and potentially favorable year for first-time buyers, with more stability and less volatility in the housing market.   Links Mentioned https://www.abor.com/research Email us at [email protected]   YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@AustinBoardofREALTORS/podcasts Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732   Don't forget to access your FREE Austin Business Journal subscription! Tap into this benefit exclusive for ABoR members and use it as a resource for lead generation and market insights.   Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2023/12/DIH-1-2-24.pdf Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].