EPISODE · Jan 23, 2026 · 5 MIN
January 20-22 | Ledger Recap
from Prediction Markets HQ: Daily Sports · host Prediction Markets HQ | Daily Sports Betting, Kalshi & Polymarket Data
Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb breakdown a high-volume week of prediction market trading, analyzing the "Rim Protection Vacuum" and "Low-Event Margin Stabilization" theories. Discover how Toronto dismantled Golden State and why conviction calibration is the key to closing the alpha gap.In this episode, we grade the portfolio's 14-10 record, review the missed exit opportunities in the Lakers vs. Nuggets total, and explain why high-end goaltending in the Red Wings vs. Wild matchup created a mathematically guaranteed settlement. We're refining the algorithm to stop "playing not to lose" and start pricing conviction accurately.Contact: [email protected] expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript
What this episode covers
Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb breakdown a high-volume week of prediction market trading, analyzing the "Rim Protection Vacuum" and "Low-Event Margin Stabilization" theories. Discover how Toronto dismantled Golden State and why conviction calibration is the key to closing the alpha gap.In this episode, we grade the portfolio's 14-10 record, review the missed exit opportunities in the Lakers vs. Nuggets total, and explain why high-end goaltending in the Red Wings vs. Wild matchup created a mathematically guaranteed settlement. We're refining the algorithm to stop "playing not to lose" and start pricing conviction accurately.Contact: [email protected] expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript
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January 20-22 | Ledger Recap
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