We are literally one second and there it is. It's 8 o' clock on the dot. The polls have just closed there in New Hampshire. We are coming to you with NBC News election alert at this hour.
All right, this is important. The NBC News decision desk is projecting that the race is still too early to call but that former President Trump leads. You can see those vote totals as they continue to climb. Right now we're at 12% of the vote in right now.
Former President Trump you see on your screen 52% of the vote. Nikki Haley with 47% of the vote at this hour. But again, it is still very, very early, only 12% of the vote in. As we just mentioned, the NBC News election desk, the decision desk is still waiting on making a call right now.
Projection. All we can say is that Trump is leading, but it's still too early. We're still going to wait for more votes to come in. Some more data come in.
Nikki Haley still looking to pull off a major upset tonight. She faces a make a break moment in her campaign. The crowds we saw turn up the voter earlier. We have another election alert coming in right now.
They're coming fast and furious. This is actually a very interesting one. Maybe not surprising, but definitely interesting. NBC News can now project that Joe Biden has won the Democratic primary.
Why is this interesting? Well, he didn't compete in the Democratic primary. This is largely from a write in campaign. Dean Phillips, a Democrat who's trying to challenge Joe Biden on the Democratic side, did campaign that state.
He has lost. And these news to project that the current president is the winner of the New Hampshire primary. The sort of question here is will this matter at all in New Hampshire because the delegates will not be awarded? South Carolina is gonna be the first in the nation primaries.
Go to Chuck Todd right now to kind of walk us through sort of the interesting conundrum people the Democrats find themselves in with joining with no delegates to be awarded. Well, why no delegates are awarded? We can show you here. It is worth noting while we don't know that every single write in is a Joe Biden.
Right. Okay. There was a campaign to write in ceasefire by some activists. It was legitimate enough that I saw yard signs there myself.
So whether this is the full but you know, assume 5% is pulled from that. So the fact of the matter is this is successful looking folks. Not even getting into the 20s. I think it is a tough thing.
I've talked to his campaign. You know, they'd like to find a place where they actually get to be on the ballot with Joe Biden to see if there's, you know, if there really is movement here in the one early state they're looking at after this that they may try to spend money in is Michigan. South Carolina is not a state that you're going to be able to feature Biden, but Michigan. Let's talk about South Carolina.
Right. Joe Biden over the top a few years ago. And he said, listen, this is more reflective of the Democratic Party. And fifth in Iowa.
Look, it's a warning that Chris Nunes got worried about the New Hampshire public primary because those who are nominees especially become president, they decide the primary counters based on their own personal appearances. And if New Hampshire ends up being the same. But I'll tell you this. We saw this 2008.
They were Florida, Michigan had this whole thing where the nominees, you know why they're gonna see them? Because New Hampshire is a swing state. Right. Okay.
New Hampshire is a swing state. This was Idaho, not a big Democrat state. They might tell them to pound sand. They're not going to tell them Hampshire Lockhart to pound sand.
Let's talk about the Republican side. What we have in 13%, it's growing almost by the minute. Tell me, is there anything we can draw from what we have so far? Yeah, I'm gonna take you one.
One area. This is in Rochester, New Hampshire. This has been a growing. This is a growing part of the state.
It's a growing place. This was someplace that she needed to narrow this a little bit. Let me show you over the last couple of cycles, you can see matters. Lots of growing vote.
I mean there already is going to be more vote that's ever turned out Rochester before. And Trump's doing better. More Ravo was 60 and then they got the entire time last time. And as you can see, this is.
This was not as friendly to the moderate candidates as you will. But this is. He's why we're saying he's leading. She is doing well in the Democratic counties in the swing counties that look at Concord.
But she's not winning by the same margin. Right. The counties, the townships she's winning are not. This was, this was one she really needed to run up the score, as you can see.
And that's the difference here. Manchester just closed. We have anything for Manchester. We have a little bit coming out.
Manchester. I can show you here and but just to let you again, so you can see here, Manchester, working class. It really is more of a Trump. It would be a pretty big upset if Haley was able to carry Manchester.
But again, Trump's winning by bigger margins in his areas than Haley is in her areas. Okay, Choctaw, we always appreciate that. Hallie Jackson's been out and about for us in the Granite State versus that polling location. She's made her way to a watch party tonight.
Hallie, talk to me about, oh wait, looks like it's a. Is that a saloon? A bar. It's a bar.
What are you hearing from everyone there? Enjoy a nice, a nice beverage if you will and some politics that goes well. That's the thing. Yeah.
Coming out to see and get a sense of like how their neighbors, how their colleagues, how their community members voted here in this big deal for nation primary. It is kind of watch why I would tell you there's a lot of fox news on TVs up here. People are tuning in to see those returns coming in, including people here like Pat, who is belly up to the bar here. Pat, thank you for chatting with us.
Sure thing. How did it go for you today, voting? Tell us who you voted for and why. I actually voted Trump because I like his policies.
Not necessarily the man, he's a little boastful and sometimes he can be divisive. But overall his policies worked and I don't think Biden's are honestly, did you ever consider or evaluate potentially any other candidates? Did you consider perhaps backing Nikki Haley or are you always for former president? I actually like her too.
I think people are familiar with his policies so they might lean towards him more. But you never know. I mean it's early voting. She could win in our state and keep going.
You know, you just never know. But I think maybe she could run again maybe down the road. I think she still has a good chance, but it might not be her time yet. You know, why did you come out here tonight?
It's about watching the returns come in, being with others. Actually, I like Fox News and I like Pete Hexet that he's here. So I saw that he was going to be here. So I'm like maybe we can see him.
Thank you so much for talking with us. We appreciate it. Obviously, a lot of folks out here tonight for a lot of different reasons. I want to bring you back to some other folks we're talking to as well because one thing that we've seen evening is the bull.
So much interest here. Right. I mean I've heard you and talked about it. Some of the folks that you have there talking about the engagement here of New Hampshire voters.
That's what we're seeing as people want to know what are the results now? Ally Jackson, for how we appreciate you. This is our big live remote board right here. They're reading out results in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
That's somebody who wants to watch. Let's listen in. 510 Asa Hutchinson 0 Peter Jeddick 0 Perry Johnson 0 Donald Cogernes 0 Miri Maxwell 2 Glenn Peters 0 S. Peterson Morell 0 Darius Mitchell 0 Mike Pence 0 Vivek Ramaswamy 2.
We just listen to the vote count in Foursmith, but it sounds like we might miss the two top contenders at the top. It's all a lot of eventful things are happening. Speaking of live events, we have some breaking news in Mike Mem just spoke with the Biden new campaign manager of the Real Life team, Michael Biden, exclusively RI Chavez Rodriguez, she is and has been the Biden campaign manager. But one of the big stories tonight, of course, is the fact that there is a movement within the Biden senior leadership.
We have generally Dillon, who is deputy chief of staff at the White House, was Biden's campaign manager in 2020, will be moving to Delaware to take a senior role in the campaign as well. Mike Donald, he's a chief strategist for President Biden, has been for a long time. This is being described as a shakeup and it is a significant move that the campaign is describing as an acceleration of what was already planned. And so as I spoke quickly, I asked her what this means for her, what this means for the campaign.
She said, listen, o', Malley, Dillon and Donal, they are familiar names to the campaign. They are familiar names to me that this is an all hands on deck approach. Now, as we head into this phase of the general election campaign, I asked her about the relationship she has with President Biden. Of course, she is the campaign manager.
She briefs him at least weekly. And she said that that relationship will continue, that she's excited that there's a great energy around the campaign, especially after what we saw tonight, which was a rally with President Biden, with Vice President Harris in Virginia, as meant to sort of set up this next phase of the campaign. And so these comments I think speak to what the Biden campaign is trying to characterize as sort of a full time now all hands on approach to the campaign and not necessarily shake up. Mike Pentley for us tonight.
Mike, we appreciate all that new reporting. If you have any other updates from the Biden campaign, let us know. All right. 809 on the East Coast, New Hampshire, we're watching.
Still too early to call by NBC News standards, 50% of the voting. But here's something that is happening. Donald Trump's sleeve keeps getting bigger and bigger as more vote comes in. Chuck Tati is the big board tonight for us.
Chuck, something that you pointed out to me as we get more of this vote in and more of the exit pulled it in. Something really interesting that actually works in four. President Trump. Well, look, we now can show you the Trump Haley splits by party.
So as we told you, are we waiting in the exit poll of basically 49 Republicans among those that are Republican that voted in this time. Look at this number that Trump got. He got 74% of self identified Republicans, Haley 25%. As you know the math, she needed over 30 now.
But that's not bad. That's not bad. But something bad did happen. It's not bad until you see this number which here's Haley on independence.
She won independence. But as you saw here, Trump got 75% of geopeers. Haley's getting 61 there. Haley got 25% of geopeers.
Trump got 37 there. So there are more Republicans than independents and Trump did better with independents than she did with Republicans. Basic algebra, right? We're not even a little bit more than regular addition and subtraction.
You see why we characterize the ways the race we have because we have a key election alert. We just got this election alert from our decision desk. Stand by for breaking news. I think we have a call in New Hampshire.
And there it is. NBC news can project that former president Trump has now won the New Hampshire primary defeating u ambassador Nikki Haley. Gary Hate is at the watch party for former president Trump in New Hampshire. The president, former president now 2 for 2.
Nikki Haley saying this is not gonna be a coronation, that she was gonna stay in the race. But it's clear when it comes to Iowa voters, New Hampshire voters, the king right now is former President Trump. What are you hearing there in the Trump watch party, the victory party now, Garrett. Yeah, Tom.
Just a minute ago, the Trump campaign changed these digital billboards behind us to say Trump wins New hamp. A huge cheer went up from this party that turned all the meetings of the victory party. But now we started to get a little rowdy. I make no mistake, this was the expected result for the Trump campaign.
They thought they would romp the New Hampshire. We'll find out what the final margin is. The victory in both Iowa and New Hampshire has usually been a golden ticket to the presidential nomination. And what you're seeing now is the Trump campaign already started to pivot towards a general election.
All of their messaging, including just moments ago, a statement from the super PAC supporting Donald Trump is arguing that every day more from this moment on, that this primary continues is a day that Joe Biden gets an advantage he shouldn't have and that the Republican Party needs to coalesce around Donald Trump. I expect to hear very much that same message from the candidate when he takes the stage here later tonight. And we're hearing from an army of surrogates who are really trying to close the door on this primary after just these two states voting. But, yeah, another victory for Donald Trump in New Hampshire was the first state he won in 2016, launched him eventually for the nomination in that year.
Trump campaign in 2020, 2024 is very much open. This campaign now follows a similar trajectory. As we have a split screen here, we're looking at the Nikki Haley watch party as well in New Hampshire. Obviously, the feeling there, nice excited bit dower.
If we will just judge from what we're seeing, the body language, a lot of people on their phones. Gary, was there ever a moment tonight where it seemed like Team Trump was nervous or they think they had this whole time? Team Trump know, Tom, I mean, the professionals in this campaign, the folks who run it have done this kind of thing before. They were very confident in their numbers.
They were very confident that ultimately four Republican voters were gonna come home from their candidate. But the candidate himself, Donald Trump, as he always does, expresses himself on social media, made very clear that he was frustrated with the numbers he was clearly seeing earlier this evening talking about the number of Democrats, the number of independent or unaffiliated voters participating in this process. He won an answer by 20 points in 2016. And I think less of the Trump campaign, but more so the Trump candidate expected to see a similar margin in this state.
I don't know if that's gonna end up being the case here. And so that frustration about the margin was palpable. That frustration, the Hampshire governor has been palpable throughout the week, but the Trump campaign never really sweated that this would be a win here to sort of how much of a rhetorical advantage would they get towards their argument that the primary needs to end now? We sort of the one big question that they face over the last 36 hours or so.
Garrett, thank you for just joining our coverage. Former President Trump, the projected winner by NBC News of the New Hampshire primary. As soon as we get some reporting on when former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley or former President Trump will take the stage to speak In New Hampshire. We're bringing that information to you live.
We also have a team of reporters at the Haley, but as soon as we have new reporting, we're gonna bring that to you. I wanna bring our panel back here for more. Hobie, I'll start with you. Do the margins matter tonight?
No, I don't think they do. Donald Trump will now be 2, 0. Nikki Haley is 0 and 2. He wins Nevada because she's out on the ballot there to caucus, and then he's a head big in South Carolina.
And as I said before, I don't see a world in which Nikki Haley decides to keep going and lose her home state by 35, 40 points, which is what she's on track to do right now. Yes. Had it been 1%, you know, really, really close, maybe we could be having that conversation. But this is a decisive win for someone in Donald Trump where a GOP candidate has never won Iowa and then gone on to win New Hampshire.
Not to mention the fact, I believe the first time in history of the Garrett Said where the amount of independents and Democrats voted in the GOP primary outweighed the number of Republicans. It's a huge deal for him to take both of these things. Let's win both and win both over 50%. And as someone says, he's winning.
Biden is not contested and Haley will try to stay in for a while, I think, which is not a happy experience for the entire conservative media. Is going to attack her for staying in, saying, this thing's over. Why are you helping Joe Biden? And if she stays through South Carolina, she's going to lose Hanley there as well.
From the Nikki Haley campaign memo was put out before the voting was done in New Hampshire. It was a very effective memo, if you will. Listen, we started with two 11 months ago, $0 in the bank. No one thought we had a shot.
No one thought we'd get it done. And here we are, $50 million raised over Twitter stops and 12 fellas later and Nikki's still standing. Will she still be standing after this loss? I think the margins do matter.
If it's a double digit loss, then it will be difficult. Earlier I said I thought it was a fatal complex anyway that Donald Trump would be the nominee. I didn't see a pat for her regardless of the, of the results tonight, even if she did win. But at this point, I'm not surprised by the result.
We'll see at the end, we only have what, 16% and we'll see what the margins are at the end. But it's also a matter of whether donors still feel comfortable giving her money. We all know we've been campaigns long enough to know that you stay in the race as long as you have money. And so if she hits the Coke network and other donors feel as though they can still support her and that that memo is something they think it creates a path, then she'll stay in.
But to Hogan's point, she is losing by 30 to 40 points in her home state. I don't know any campaign where losing that decisively in your home state shows there's a path for you to gain momentum to move forward after that. So I think they're have to have a lot of discussion now. The primary is until February 24th.
So does she stay in and still hammer Trump and think that somehow that's going to weaken him moving forward? Maybe, but I don't see why. I don't see that. Well, if you had just been told I now fight until a year ago, even three months ago, Nikki Haley finished 70, 45% in New Hampshire, I would have shot and she's overperformed in this campaign.
But she's just the way she's campaigned, the way she's been branded, the way she's been attacked, she's just too far over on the non Trump side of the party, which we can get at in a state where independents are a huge swingbow and they're coming all in because they don't have a Democratic contest. But that's just not gonna be replicated elsewhere and she's not gonna be Desantis couldn't get enough of the Trump vote and widen into the non Trump vote. She had it. She has a grip on the non Trump but won't be able to get further into the party to get away for Ali Oraclists.
We know former President Trump likes to speak late on these nights. But when he does speak, although we think we're hear from him, I think you're going to hear a very similar message to the one you heard after Iowa. He's going to thank Nikki. Most likely he will also talk about the need to unify and focus on Jo Biden as he's the enemy, he believes, of this party and of this country.
And I would imagine that we have some break news. It looks like Nikki Haley is about to take the stage after losing New Hampshire. Here's the former Unassertor now. Thank you, thank you, thank you.
Oh great American. What, what a great night. God is so good all the time. Thank you New Hampshire for The love, the kindness, the support, and a great night here tonight.
Thank you so much. I want to first say thank you to my husband, who I know is watching right now. I love you. We're excited to have you here.
I want to thank my kids who are here, Rita Naylon and Josh, who have really kind of stepped up and just given me the support I need. You really pull on your family when something like this happens. And I am incredibly blessed by their support. I have my parents at home and I will always say that the way they raised me, to know that we lived in the best country in the world, but to also know that the best way you appreciate your blessings is to give back.
Thank you, mom and dad. I love you so much. To my siblings, to my in laws, to everybody back at home, to Vicki for helping me take care of mom and dad. Thank you for that.
You know, I will tell you, it has been. It feels like it's been a lifetime, but it has been almost a year that we've been campaigning in New Hampshire, touching every hand, answering every question, being the last person to leave. And we had the most amazing thing happen is the second that we got the endorsement from Governor Chris Sununu, Mean, a true governor that doesn't stand behind a podium. He shows up at a diner, he shows up at the brewery.
He loves the people of New Hampshire. He has been with me every single day at every single event. And I want to thank someone who was with me on day one. He's a patriot.
He's a hardcore conservative, and he is my friend, General Don Balin. Sharon, thank you. So. So I want to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight.
He earned it, and I want to acknowledge that. Now, you've all heard the chatter among the political class. They're falling all over themselves saying this race is over. Well, I have news for all of them.
New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not the last in the nation. This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go, and the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.
At one point in this campaign, there were 14 of us running and we were at 2% in the polls. Well, I'm a fighter and I'm scrappy. And now we're the last one standing next to Donald Trump. And today we got close to half of the vote.
We still have a ways to go, but we keep moving up. For a lot of people, politics is way too personal. It's not personal for me. I voted for Trump twice.
I was proud to Serve America in his cabinet. I agree with many of his policies. I decided to run because I'm worried about the future of our country and because it's time to put the negativity and chaos behind us. We have an economy that's crushing middle class Americans.
We have a border that is totally open and dangerous, creating a disaster in our country. We have school, we have schools that are failing too many of our children. And we have a world on fire with a war in Europe and the Middle east and a huge and growing threat from China. And then you look at Washington D.C.
we have a Congress that fights about everything and accomplishes nothing. And we have Joe Biden in the White House making one bad decision after another when he's making any decisions at all. Our country's in a real mess. And the question is, who's gonna fix it with Donald Trump?
Republicans have lost almost every competitive election. We lost the Senate, we lost the House, we lost the White House. We lost in 2018, we lost in 2020, and we lost in 2022. The worst kept secret in politics is how badly the Democrats want to run against Donald Trump.
They know Trump is the only Republican in the country who Joe Biden can defeat. You can't fix. You can't fix the mess if you don't win an election. A Trump nomination is a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency.
Donald Trump. I defeat Biden. Handle with Donald Trump. You have one bout of chaos after another.
This court case, that controversy, this tweet, that senior moment. You can't fix Joe Biden's chaos with Republican chaos. The other day, Donald Trump accused me of not providing security at the Capitol on January 6th. Now, I've long called for mental competency test for politicians over the age of 75.
Chomp claims he'd do better than me in one of those tests. Maybe he would, maybe he wouldn't. But if he thinks that, then he should have no problem standing on a debate stage with me. Most Americans do not want a rematch between Biden and Trump.
The first party to retire its 80 year old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election. And I think it should be the Republicans that win this election. Election. So our fight is not over because we have a country to save.
In the next two months, millions of voters in over 20 states will have their say. We should honor them and allow them to vote. And guess what? In the next two months, Joe Biden isn't going to get any younger or any better.
We'll have all the time we need to defeat Joe Biden. When we get to South Carolina, Donald Trump's gonna have a harder time faultfully attacking me. The great people of South Carolina know I cut their tax taxes. They know.
They know I signed the toughest illegal immigration bill in the country. They know we passed voter ID and tort reform and ethics reform, and they know we moved 35,000 people from welfare to work. We've just been listening to former ambassador Nikki Haley, delivered her concession speech there in New Hampshire, but making it very clear she is not going anywhere. She is staying in this race and using this time to thank her supporters, thank her family, but then going full throttle against Donald Trump, saying that she would take a mental Competency test over 75 if he should take one, that he's scared to debate her, that a Trump nomination is a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency.
Clearly, she's not going anywhere. Saying she's staying until South Carolina till Super Tuesday, at least for now. What she's saying tonight, our panels here, along with Chuck Todd. Chuck, I'm gonna start with you.
At first, we're sure where she was going with this speech, but she made it clear I'm sticking around. I'm not going anywhere. And there's only states left. There were a lot of family.
Thank you. Yeah. Made you wonder, like, oh, where's this going? And then she said, I'm not going anywhere.
Look, we've been. Look, I. I understand the desire to get to Super Tuesday because there are quite a few states that have similar ballot rules as New Hampshire. And she's got a path of 45 in a lot of places which could accumulate some delegates.
The question is, does she have a path to 50 plus one anywhere? And the real problem she has is Super Tuesday's in March. I'm checking the calendar again. Today's till January, right?
Yeah. She's got a slob the next 31 days before we get to South Carolina, with the only contest being. Is Nevada, which she's not participating in because of the weird caucus rule. So this momentum that she was able to create over the last three weeks, how does she get.
There's no debate, right? What's an event? What's a. You know her biggest fear?
The donors have been pouring money in her last couple of months. They're. They're focused on one thing. They don't want Biden, Trump.
Haley is the vehicle to try to stop buying Trump. If this vehicle can't work, they're gonna look for other vehicles. No labels. Business like what she's got to worry about is do her donors give her enough money to go through Super Tuesday.
They say, you know what this is. I'm not throwing any more money on this. I'm gonna try the now. I'm gonna go to no labels.
That's to me the next week we'll find out. And she's gonna find out how, how confident her donors are in her. Arnie Haley and Bedright High tells me that tomorrow, this week and next week I think she's meeting with owners on Wall street to get more money from New York and other states to try to keep her campaign live. I wanna go to a graphic.
We've made former President Trump Alan Truth Social putting his reaction to his victory, but also the Nikki Haley concession speech. He started by saying Haley said she had to win new she didn't. He goes on to say more. She came in third last week.
Exclamation point. And then finally this last one. Delusional. Exclamation point, exclamation point.
I want to bring back our fine panel here who you know, former UN ambassador to Kaylee Cole. The political class. Right. That was the conversation we were just having with you guys.
Here's her friend, but she says it's not over. Is she wrong? I think she probably is. It doesn't surprise me that she came on still in it.
As long as you're in it, you gotta be in it and say you're fighting, you're gonna win. She's going after Trump in a pretty tough way. It doesn't feel as though there's an off ramp there that she's expecting onto his ticket. But Chuck described the slog the month until South Carolina.
Why can't she get stronger? Possible. But South Carolina, she's falling really poorly in South Carolina. It's a strong Trump state and it's a state that demonstrates how Trump has this ability.
He's still an outsider. He has an outsider vibe, outsider appeal to a lot of people. At the same time, he's in some way, in any ways the establishment candidate. So Hoga was mentioning earlier, every elected official in South Carolina is behind Trump and expect the former governor to have that, but he's the former president that everyone expects to win.
And it's gonna be really tough for Dominic. So Terry, I saw you watching the speech. You're never Trumper. Did she motivate you?
Did you now want her to stay in the race longer? I mean, look, I told you I felt as though they were always running for second place from the very beginning. Both Nikki Haley, DeSantis, all of them, when they had an opportunity to go after Trump and cut him off at the knees, they didn't take it. So you can't play footsie with MAGA and then expect to beat them in the end.
Like, they just never ran the type of campaign to take Trump out from the beginning. So anything, anyone who stays in the race that weakens Donald Trump in the general election, I'm fine with it. And we can go ahead and do that if it beats him. I saw some interesting numbers here.
Even though she didn't win enough independence, she needs to do about 60% of the independence. She won, 61%. But if we look at those numbers and break down those. Those suburban areas and those independents, it shows weakness for Trump in the general.
And I think that's the value that she brings, is showing people who are still voting, they're not voting for Trump necessarily, but, I mean, they're voting for Trump, but not in the ways that he would need for a general election. So that's the only value that. Is there enough money out there to keep her alive? Is there enough money out there?
I mean, there's lots of money out there. Well, that's why I said earlier it depends on what the Koch network does and those donors. There are major billionaires out there. There's Wall street guys out there.
They're looking for somewhere to put their money. Do they see a path for her? I'm not so sure. Because everyone we've seen so far, from Jamie Dimon on down in the Wall street class, they keep there beginning to coalesce behind Trump again, because they start with you.
I do want to put the poll up on our screens to South Carolina next contest in the GOP race for denomination. And the numbers here, they're just not great. Freaky. 64% for Trump, 25% for Haley.
You're from South Carolina. You look at these numbers, you hear a speech and listen. If you're on the phone, Ricky Haley, you hear a speech, she sounds like she still wants to fight. If she's a warrior, she's ready to go to South Carolina.
But what's gonna happen when she gets. They're all gonna stay in until they don't. DeSantis was gonna stay in until he didn't. The same thing applies here.
What else is she gonna say? Unless she wants to get out in Norris Trump tonight, which she's not gonna do. She feels as though this race is between herself and Donald Trump. And it is.
I mean, there are more people on the Democrat primary ticket than there are on the Republican side. But the point isn't made here at nauseam, but it's worth saying again, and that is it is very difficult for someone like Nikki Haley, who, yes, was governor of the state and also won reelection there, to be down so far and expect to win her home state. Everyone in South Carolina, the statewide office holders at the local level, the governor, attorney general, they're all lining up behind Donald Trump. And even as we a senator from the state of South Carolina, someone that he put in his position, appointed him, and he is for Donald Trump, I just don't see a world in which he continues.
You've run campaigns. You've run campaigns that have come out successful in Iowa and then later keep raising money until it got to a point where talk about the conversations with donors. When you're on the healing campaign, you're picking the phone tonight. What is the pitch to donors?
Well, interestingly enough, the Wall street conversation hurts her with the GOP base. You're telling me she's gonna go to Wall street, ask for more money? That's a pariah. Like when she was, when she was given the coat money in politics on Republican side, typically you would say, wow, look at this great boost of influx of money.
Now it's like, wait, of course she would get the coke money because she's an establishment globalist like they are. So it's not necessarily a good thing. I don't know what she says other than, hey, we're gonna get through South Carolina and we're gonna play in. She's gotta have a strategy that's specific because these people are millionaires and billionaires, not by being stupid, but by knowing how to invest money to get a return.
If they don't see a return, I don't know what kind of pitch she's gonna make. The pragmatic, she's a vehicle, right? It's not like a crawl of a broken glass. She has a shot.
And if they conclude she doesn't, they'll go someplace else. Ali Vitali is at the Haley campaign headquarters. She was there watching that speech unfold as well. I would talk to you about what stood out to you, because in the beginning, it almost sounded like she was gonna say, I'm out of this race.
But then she again just went straight after Donald Trump and let her fly off the gas. You know what, though? In Iowa, Tom, she started the same way by profusely thanking her family and the people who helped her get to this position in the first place, thanking her husband, who's serving it to her overseas, thanking her kids for stepping up in the meantime, and thanking the governor of the state of the Amster, Kristenu, who was a driving force behind the way that she barnstormed in his state in the closing week of the primary. Here he was with her in diners, at coffee shops and, of course, at town halls.
Now, of course, Haley thanking him from this big stage and announcing in the night that she's going to be staying in. It sort of reminded me of back in 2020 when Amy Klobuchar in Iowa came out early, said she did well enough to call her win by her standards, and then moved on to New Hampshire. That's kind of what Haley is doing right here in New Hampshire, trying to just bounce on into what she keeps calling sweet South Carolina because it's her home state. I think your panel's right to point out it is a real slob there for a number of reasons, specifically the idea that there's less college plus age voters there.
The idea that this is really a place that, as we were talking about before, was one of the first real places that we saw Trump country begin to show its power in 2016. Nevertheless, there were some parts of Nikki Haley speech that really stood out to me, specifically just the general way that she is basically making an open invitation to anyone who, like her, voted for Trump, Trump twice, not served in his administration, though she points out that she did that for him as well and liked his policies. She's now inviting them, hey, if you like all those things and you voted for him twice, I will offer you those things without the chaos, without the court cases, without, in her words, the senior moments, talking about Trump in the most direct fashion that we've heard her do it, challenging him to debate her, challenging him in some ways to take a mental fitness or mental acuity test. She said that on the day that she announced her presidential date almost a year ago in South Carolina.
She said if you are over 75, you should be taking a mental fitness test. Clearly, she's challenging Trump on that front now, almost directly. This is a real moment where we're watching Nikki Haley take her most direct shots at Trump yet. But we're also watching her make age the key issue here.
Is it this race? It's almost the thing that she says with reluctance and a little twinge of sadness that she almost hates to be saying this about her rival. But it is the seed that she's continued to plant in the minds of voters both here in New Hampshire and of course, down the rest of the primary calendar as she goes. That's the one thing that Trump's not gonna be able to change.
He's not gonna be able to change how well she has the. Frankly, neither is Joe Biden. And it plays upon a fear that I've already heard from Republicans. Republicans have done a really good job of instilling concern about Joe Biden's age and acuity.
Now Nikki Haley is lumping him in with Donald Trump, and that makes the concern tough. Target is a very subtle way to dig into the minds of voters. And she's hoping that this is an issue that can be a wedge that she can use to get to the nomination. Al, before you go, does the margin of victory matter here?
Because as we watch more of the vote come in, the spreads getting wider and wider. Now, double digit lead with former President Trump over Nikki Haley. If this turns out to be a shellacking, do you think she eventually drops out or do you think that's it? She made the speech, she's sticking this at least until South Carolina.
It's gonna matter hugely. I think that's why she came out as early as she did. Because right now we're looking at the results and we're thinking, well, it looks a lot closer than we thought it would be. Her campaign team is seeing that, too.
It was a shrewd move for them to come out early and say this was good enough. We did really well. Let's go to, let's go to what they would call maybe greener pastors in South Carolina. But again, we can't understand how tough of a slob that is.
But the Martin is gonna matter immensely here because when she goes to meet her donors in New York and Texas and across the country, that's going to be the proof of purchase, the return on investment. How close can she actually get to Donald Trump? How much of a match can she actually make this? All right, I'd like for us from the Haley watch party tonight.
I appreciate all your reporting. Please stand by. Joining us now live, Frank Lunta, pollster and political strategist and analyst and former Democratic senator from Missouri, Claire MacAskill. We appreciate you guys both being here.
Frank, I'm starting with you. You wrote the book Words that Matter. Any of the words that Nikki Haley said tonight, will they matter with Republican voters? Yes, they will.
But we still can't tell whether it's a double digit win or not. That question that you asked your colleague moments ago is the question if she wins, if she's sorry. If she loses by less than 10%, she has permission to go on voter permission. If that becomes a double digit loss, it's how, it's hard to see how she recovers.
In terms of her language, three things that matter. Number one, electability. Does she have what it takes to beat Joe Biden? Number two, chaos.
You hear use the word all the time. Is she the kind of leader that the Republicans looking for? And number three, can she capture that unaffiliated, that vote that isn't so hardcore Republican to demonstrate that you can put together a majority of these other states, the first two, arguably yes. The last one is much tougher and that's why the final margin of tonight matters considerably.
Frank, I do want to ask you though, when you look at this race and you listen to her message and you've helped craft so many speeches and phrases for candidates that have won races, did she craft her message too late? Did you sort of get her voice too late in this process? That's a great question. And if you watch her debate performance, she got better as time went on.
She found her voice, she found the language, the messaging that put her as close as it did here in New Hampshire. But this is the best thing for her independence can vote here. Moderates are a significant percentage of the Republican votes. Her message is so attuned to them.
She cannot forget Donald Trump's intensity. The level of passion and support of his supporters is unlike anything I've seen in my career. Unlaunching them or dislodging them is pretty darn hard. And clearly she hasn't succeeded to the level she wanted to do tonight.
Frank, is it frustrating to you, somebody who's work for so many Republicans that close to 50%, maybe more, maybe a little less. All Republicans don't want more. President Trump because he's going to be the nominee. I don't think the word is frustrating.
I do want a positive message. I do want somebody hopeful. I want somebody who's focused on the future. The governor of New Hampshire, Chris, just walked into room right across me right here.
You can hear the noise as he's walking. He's the kind of Republican that this country needs to look and find a more positive approach. Donald Trump understands his voters, gets them and he knows how to deliver the kind of speech and the kind of message that they're looking for. Nikki Haley, it's a little, it's a little tougher because quite frankly, the Republican Party of 2024 is not the Republican Party of 10 years ago.
Frank Once we appreciate that. So continue to count votes there in Milford, New Hampshire, on the left side of the screen. Senator Clerk Castle, you've won elections, you've lost elections. I asked Hogan this question, but you've had to do this.
How hard is it now to call your supporters in South Carolina, call your election teams, get them excited, and then call your donors and say, I need you to write another check. I don't think it's gonna all for Nikki Haley to raise money. She's got plenty of money. That's not her problem.
But I'm not gonna turn this on its head a little bit. I mean, really, this is the former president. President, which is like an incumbent to the Republican Party. And he managed 50 in Iowa.
He's at 50% in New Hampshire of his own party. Now, I know in New Hampshire, unaffiliated voters can vote in the Republican primary, but I don't see how this is necessarily a show of strength for him until Biden's gonna get more than 50%. Now he's on the ballot. So I think this shows that there is in the Republican Party, voters that do not want Trump.
Strongly do not want Trump. And I believe that those are open for Joe Biden to get, and that could be the difference in this election. So you're saying if you had to say in this, you want this Republican race to shake out because you don't think that this is what the party needs right now. Because if there's half the party around, half the party that doesn't like a candidate, let the process play out.
Well, I think we've seen in Washington, the Republican Party is really divisive right now. I mean, they can't leave the House. They can't even do the business of the government because they're so busy fighting among themselves between the MAGA wing of the party and frankly, the Nikaylee wing of the party. Now, no question, Trump has the majority of the Republican Party that is part of the MAGA group.
Now, they are with Trump, and I think he'll win the nomination. But don't discount that they have a real war within their party. And part of that is among the folks that have funded the Republican Party, by and large, for most of its history. Sarah Kleinhouse, I'm going to bring you now.
I mean, is she right? You know, can't Trump get the rest of the party behind him and more importantly there by November? Sure. I mean, look, like ice cream is not ice cream.
Like the incumbent is not the incumbent. This is a much different situation. That Donald Trump sees himself in as opposed to someone like Joe Biden, who's the sitting president. Donald Trump clearly has a string hold on the GOP voter.
There's a massive amount of people on our side who want to see a second term for Donald Trump, who love those America first policies that prove the lives of all Americans. They want to see a return to that. The question becomes, can he take that and expand the party and get some of the independence, which is what we've been talking about for a long time. This, as always, these presidential elections are referent among somebody.
Who's it going to be on? If we can make it about Joe Biden and his failures, we have a really good chance of taking back the White House. If not, it's about Donald Trump, then we got an issue. But this campaign, I should say so it's different because it's not in a vacuum.
We're actually talking about a candidate and Donald Trump has a record as president. And now we have Joe Biden also as a record as president. You can bump those up against each other and ask yourself that famous question Reagan did, is your life better today than it was four years ago, Senator McCaskill? Well, first of all, presidential politics is famous for personalities mattering and whether or not somebody is likable and whether somebody wants someone in their living room for four years.
That's where I think Donald Trump has a real problem, especially with swing voters and independent voters that don't eat politics, politics all day long like all of us do, that don't live and breathe it every day. They know he represents chaos. They know he represents a guy who is more interested in driving grievance than he is aspiration. They know he is not something he's ever talked about uniting the country.
He's always talked about the Biden country. So I think that will come into play also. It will be an important part of this. You heard all these Republican voters today that we've interviewed in New Hampshire.
So many of them said, we know he's arrogant. I don't like him, but I like his policies. It matters in presidential power, and those are dialogue Republicans. So when you do an independent power, it really makes sense.
Personality matters. The economy matters as well. And we'll have to see what the economy says as we close in November. Richard Lauer, you cover Trump as well, his rise in the Republican Party.
Talk to me about potentially the viciousness that is going to be unleashed now when Nikki Haley and the Nikki Haley campaign as they go to South Carolina, we'll See just a taste of it tonight. Yeah. The line on her will be, it's over. She needs to get over it and get with team and not hurt Donald Trump, who's the only vehicle to be Joe Biden.
And I just don't think it's gonna be very happy. Four weeks for her up to South Carolina and she's probably gonna lose South Carolina. I will say both Claire and Hogan are right. If either of these parties were able to switch someone out, it's not gonna happen.
But if there's someone else besides Biden or Kamala Harris, they beat Trump easily. If there's someone else besides Trump, they beat Biden easily. That's not gonna happen. You have, according to the poll, you're roughly Joe Biden's 35% approval.
Donald Trump's 35% approval. Right. And Donald Trump has never beaten Joe Biden. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump.
Despite what Donald Trump has been trying to tell people his mind. He thinks he's the incumbent. Right. He never knowledgeably actually lost the election, which is why we're where we are with this with him.
But the other thing, too, is that to Claire's point, independent voters and the moderate voters in the Republican Party who don't like Donald Trump are going to be the people who decide this election in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, in Wisconsin, in Arizona. And those people, as we get closer, they pay more attention, realize that this is a Trump Biden race and what Donald Trump represents, which means less rights for their daughters, daughters having less rights than their grandmothers do, thanks to the extreme Mac opposition on women's reproductive health. That's something that is going to not sit well with women when they look at Donald Trump's behavior and what he says and how vicious he talked about viciousness. This is just the tip of the iceberg.
When we get closer, are they going to step back and say, is this the type of America that we want again? Are we going to go through this again? Someone who incites insurrections, someone who doesn't do things. They want to be dictator and they want someone who doesn't believe in our democracy, someone who mocks people, someone's a criminal defendant.
I think when people start to pay more attention, there's a binary choice, which they're will be. Those independents are not going to break for Donald Trump. That's entirely possible. And those are all obviously vulnerabilities for Trump.
But one thing in the polling is there's kind of Trump, there's this nostalgia about the Trump presence. He has people who be Better off under whose policies he fell out better in the country. And Trump wins on his metrics compared to Joe Biden. Well, Biden campaign has work to do on that despite the fact that right now that the economy is actually pretty doing pretty good.
We are the number one oil producers in the world. So the energy argument is actually a fallacy. Inflation is down to 3% from 9. The Biden, you know Biden passed the infrastructure, the inflation reduction act.
They're actually governing. But it's up to Biden campaign to actually sell that message to the American people. Feel what the reality is going on. I will make you a really friendly $1 wager that Donald Trump will not thank Nikki Haley tonight.
Hallie Jackson is in New Hampsh talking to voters about this reaction about this victory tonight. Hallie, what are they telling you? Let me have to tell you to here at this bar where folks are watching returns come in watching some of the results. This is Ed.
I'm sorry to rap. Gentlemen, greetings. You voted for former President Trump. I did.
I voted for Donald Trump. Tell us why. Well, I just feel like he's not beholden to any anybody like he doesn't take any money from donors. He just loves America and I think he just wants the best for America.
NBC News has now projected it before president has won this primary. Your reaction here? Well, I'm happy about that. So we can go on and win the general election in November and take down whoever's going to run for the Democratic Party.
I don't think Biden's going to be their candidate candidate but the country's going in the wrong direction. I mean we're what's going on here. Like the economy is bad. The border is wide open.
I feel like there's so much corruption going on in government on both sides, Republican and Democrats. Do you believe that Nikki Haley should drop out of this race? There's been some discussion around that. You saw the current chair of the public and say that if doesn't are which is if Donald Trump has a strong showing that that sends a clear message about where the electorate is at about unity here in the party.
And listen, this is not correlation. People deserve the chance to make their voices heard. What's that? Well, I believe that Nikki Haley has a chance like she I don't think she should drop out just yet.
I think this that's like a flavor for her in same the country. But I feel like Trump is the person that people want like he needs. I feel like he's the only candidate that Loves America. Like, I think Nikki Haley's beholden to rhinos.
I feel like she's a rhino and she's part of the unit party like I was trying to allude to earlier. She's with, like, the Democrats and the Republicans that are part of this unit party that I feel like are in control and there's no way out. We need somebody that loves America. And thank you so much for talking with us.
Obviously happy, as you say here. It looks like we will be chatting with you and others. Thank you very much. So I want to walk you back a little bit.
You heard it there, right? The Rational album. Some of these folks who have backed for President Trump, you see the results here tonight. That he appears to have a leader was projected work to win here.
What we don't know is by how much. However, there somebody else who's backing for President Trump who voted for today. Jamie. That's you, right?
Voted for President Trump. Absolutely. Did. We have now projected the race for him.
I'm so happy to hear all this. This is great. I'm surprised it was as close as it was, to be honest with you. I didn't think she was going to actually get that much, but it's crazy.
We still don't know what margins are at this point. I asked one of your fellow folks over here enjoying the evening here at this bar, the Goat in Manchester. Do you think Nikki Haley should drop by the race? I do.
I think it's about time that she drops out just like the rest of them have. And I think. I got to be honest, I think Vic is amazing. We did a couple events with him, and the guy is absolutely class act and everything he stands for.
And I hope he stands with Trump because I think he could be after Trump. Swami Jamie, of course, is bar here to go? He had a couple events here. Do you think he could be potential VP material?
I mean, I don't know about vp, but I think he should work with Trump side by side. I would love to see it. And his crew is absolutely amazing. I mean, amazing.
The class acts for real. Jimmy, thank you so much. And this is gonna be seen throughout the night here as we turn ahead. Now.
I'll tell you where I'm going actually tomorrow in South Carolina, because that is a state where Nikki Haley is now eyeing. It is obvious. I'm gonna pull up here for just one second. It's obviously her home state is a place that she's already heard it in her speech tonight, in her remarks now, she's already casting her eyes on her home state.