Jason Pine: Time to learn how far apart the All Blacks and South Africa are

For the last time —on this show anyway— we can talk about this test series as a future event.  The next month is a blank page, stretching before us with storylines just waiting to be written.  In all honesty, up until now, all we've been really doing is having a guess. An educated guess, based on history, analysis, reading, and listening to the respective coaches and players...  But a guess nonetheless.  We're now going to have some context. Next week we can talk about test two with the context of test one, and so on.  We're going to find out over the next four weeks how far apart South Africa and the All Blacks are, with 13 months to go until the Rugby World Cup.  Three specific areas the All Blacks will have to be particularly good in to repel what the Springboks will throw at them tonight:  One: The scrum.  South Africa scrum for penalties, and they do it very, very well – better than anyone in the world. Our scrum must be solid, legitimate, and competitive.  Having Tyrel Lomax there is a huge boost because the Springboks will look to assert dominance as soon as they possibly can – on their feed or ours. So keep an eye on the first scrum or two.  Two: Maul defence.  If South Africa get the aforementioned scrum penalties, or any penalties, they will, without question, kick for the corners and set up a lineout drive. It really is one of the hardest things to defend in rugby because there are so many moving parts.   Jason Ryan and Co. will have prepared the NZ forwards for what’s coming, but knowing it’s coming and doing something about it are very different things.  The key really is to limit those penalties in the first place – don’t let South Africa get themselves into the position to test us close to our line in the first place.  So discipline and limiting penalties becomes super important.  Three: The aerial assault.  It's coming, there's no doubt about it. Josh Moorby, Will Jordan, and Damian McKenzie will need to be ready to defuse those Ellis Park bombs.  I must admit I do worry a little bit about Damian McKenzie's ankle injury – if he comes down awkwardly from fielding one of those high kicks, that might be a problem. But you have to assume he's good to go.  The aerial game has been a major area of focus for the All Blacks this year, and while they still haven’t absolutely nailed it, there has been improvement. And there’ll need to be more.  This South African team is formidable. Utterly formidable.  I felt pretty good about the All Blacks' chances until I saw the South African team unveiled on Thursday night. They are a genuine heavyweight side. Number one in the world for a reason.  What a lineup: Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth, and Pieter-Steph du Toit in the forward pack. Damian de Allende, Jesse Kriel, Cheslin Kolbe, and Damian Willemse in a star-studded backline.  They are favourites, and rightly so.  But we're good too.  Slowly but surely, Dave Rennie has built the All Blacks into a side capable of going into the Lion's Den and emerging intact.  We're not going to win the series 4-nil, but this group can build the belief that on any given day, they can beat South Africa.  And in just over a year from now, that's all the All Blacks will need to do at the Rugby World Cup. They’ll only need to beat the Springboks once.  And one of the keys to that will be believing that they can, and that all starts in just under 15 hours from now. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.