Market Crash Risk | Jim Bianco on the 20% Drop Nobody Sees

Jim Bianco says there's one risk that could send stocks down 15 to 20%—and almost nobody is pricing it in.In this episode, Jim Iuorio and Bob Iaccino sit down with Jim Bianco, President and CEO of Bianco Research, to break down what markets are ignoring right now. Bianco lays out why the Strait of Hormuz staying closed longer than expected is the real tail risk nobody's talking about, and why tech keeps hitting all-time highs despite the macro uncertainty around it.They get into why software stocks are getting crushed by agentic AI while semiconductors rip higher, which AI tools are actually worth paying for, what's driving bond yields and inflation expectations, the case for gold and the dollar debasement trade, and why private credit's exposure to software companies could be the next place real stress shows up.If you want to understand what could actually move markets 20% from here, this is the conversation.Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and Guest Overview03:07 Will the Market Work Itself Out This Time04:57 The Strait of Hormuz and What It Means for Oil07:25 What Would Make Stocks Drop 15-20%10:45 Big Tech as a Global Safe Haven Trade12:20 Why Software Stocks Are Getting Crushed by AI14:29 Agentic AI: Beyond Google Search on Steroids16:36 Which AI Tool Should You Actually Pay For22:42 Bond Market: Inflation, Nominal Growth and Rates26:19 Can the US Become the Supplier of Last Resort31:33 The Debasement Trade: Gold, Bitcoin and the Dollar36:08 How Does One Go Bankrupt? Slowly, Then All at Once37:29 Government Stakes in Airlines: Socialism or Smart43:03 The Intel Example and Why Government Ownership Fails46:07 What Caused the Software Selloff Before the War48:31 Data Centers: Why You Can't Get Rid of Them50:01 Nuclear Power and the AI Energy Problem51:25 Self-Driving Cars and the Insurance Thesis56:27 Private Credit's Massive Software Problem59:51 Is Private Credit a Systemic RiskFollow Jim Bianco https://x.com/biancoresearch?lang=en Stay Connected With Us  https://x.com/bob_iaccino https://x.com/jimiuorio  https://www.linkedin.com/in/bob-iaccino/  https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-iuorio/ For business inquiries: [email protected]