Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious

In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears toward growth and recession fears. He also breaks down why the AI productivity boom may be overstated, how AI capital spending is supporting the economy, why Treasury yields look too high, and why investors may want to rebalance from new era technology stocks toward old era stocks and bonds.Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsTopics CoveredWhy weak jobs data and benign inflation have changed the outlook for the Federal ReserveLabor force contraction, stalled job growth, and the risks facing consumer spendingHousing affordability, services activity, real income, savings, and signs of economic weaknessHow the stock-bond correlation can reveal a shift from inflation fears to growth and recession fearsWhy Jim expects Fed rate cuts before year-end and sees downside risk for Treasury yieldsHow higher oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar can hit stocks and the economy with a lagWhy today's AI productivity boom may be a mirage rather than a repeat of the 1960s or 1990sHow AI CapEx, core capital goods orders, and technology stocks are linkedWhy the 10-year Treasury yield may be mispriced relative to growth and inflationThe widening divide between new era and old era stocks and what it could mean for portfolio allocationTimestamps00:00 Jim's outlook: weak jobs, benign inflation, and growth fears04:11 Labor force rollover and consumer warning signs09:06 Real income collapse and economic surprise data13:06 Why bond yields could fall below 4 percent17:45 Why Jim expects Fed cuts instead of hikes22:07 How policy tightening hits the economy with a lag26:16 Why productivity gains can be a recession mirage30:20 What a true productivity boom looks like34:38 AI stocks as a leading signal for capital spending39:08 Why Treasury yields may be mispriced44:31 Oil, core inflation, and the case for easing48:32 New era versus old era correlation as a warning52:54 Why today's AI economy may be more vulnerable than dot-com57:22 Portfolio allocation takeaways: bonds, old era, and techLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.