John MacDonald: Poll of Polls no comfort for National

Labour leader Chris Hipkins won’t be loving the news out today that the coalition government is on its way to a second term, but Christopher Luxon shouldn’t be either.   According to the NZ Herald - Motu research Poll of Polls, there is an 88.3 percent chance of the coalition getting back in this year.  Election results from the last 12 years have been run through 4,000 simulations, and it’s shown there is nearly a 90 percent chance of us having the same government as the one we have now after November.   The Poll of Polls says National would have 37 seats - down 12. That’s 12 current National MPs without a job after November. But not just that, National losing 12 seats makes it even more dependent on Winston Peters.  Which, given what Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis have been saying about NZ First these last few weeks, is the last thing they want.  They might bang on about strong, stable government but the last thing National wants come November is to have to go into coalition talks again with Winston Peters. And that’s why Christopher Luxon will be unhappy about these numbers today.  And, if he’s not unhappy, he should be.  Because, according to this new Poll of Polls, NZ First would have twice as many seats - going from eight to 16. Which you won’t hear me poo-pooing because I think it’s a very real prospect.   Not just because of what's happening in Australia with the One Nation party, and with Nigel Farage’s reform party in the UK, but also because people here are so disillusioned with Labour and National.   Nevertheless, going from 8 MPs to sixteen MPs would be amazing for NZ First, wouldn’t it?   Act would have 10 seats - down one from 11, so it would be NZ First saving the current coalition’s bacon, which National will just hate.   All up, the National/ACT/NZ First combo would have 63 seats. That’s assuming, of course, that NZ First would stick with National and ACT.  On the other side, Labour would have 43 seats - making it the largest party in parliament - up from 34 - but still not in Government.  The Greens would have 11, down from 15, and Te Pāti Māori would have three seats, down from five.   So, all up, the left would have 57 seats, and Labour would be sitting there, the largest party in parliament, but back in opposition for another three years.   So, what do we make of that?  I think it’s pretty much inevitable. It doesn’t excite me, but there’s no way Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori deserve to be in government.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.