Well, we'll be standing for it. I'll just go back to my friend with us when we'll be standing for it because we're doing some interesting digging with the numbers. On the center here on the verge of the election, John, what can you tell us about what the margins, these tight-type margins that Republicans have in these defensive races mean for Tuesday? Well, you know, we see a lot of uncertainty right now.
A lot of races are very close to my very close. I mean, about three points or less. You go back through the real-player politics pulling average back in 2004. If you go to the greater than 3.3, you would almost every single place.
It's a way to play every single time. If it's less than 3.3, it's much, much more than certain. You've got a lot of examples like Minnesota in 2008 where Alfred A. was up nearly 3.3 and he went by handful of those every time Harry Reid in 2010 was now by nearly 3.1 by 5.
And by again, in Colorado, which is another race on the cycle, he was down 3, he won by 1.1. He was another couple races to try. And on the coast, you're going to go through. So what's saying is that there can't be surprises right now.
We've got about six races that are within three points. Georgia and Kansas, Republican Health Seeds, Georgia probably going to go run off. Kansas, Republican Health Health, the Capitol Mount. Last very difficult state to pull it off.
Republican Health had about 2.2 points there in average, but they didn't have a lot of going there. And you have to have a lot of other three points over Shap-Ramp. Colorado was looking better. You've got quite a lot of about 3.6 and my last track, which was going to be in the state zone, but you never quite sure as in Colorado was a mis-last time.
Well, let's just stop by a different second. So to kind of catch up, let's start with the more than signal. Let's go to the more than 3s for a second. So it's a safe to say that in Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota, we're in the plus 3 margin there.
I would say exactly. Plus 3 there, you're looking good in Arkansas. You're looking pretty solid with Maryland going down after run off in the number. So if you just take Colorado Louisiana and Arkansas and add that to the 3, the Republicans take the set right there.
Yeah, you don't be Kansas. You know, you're just, you gotta keep that in mind. But yeah, I'll be on the American better than 50%, 50%, 50%, 50%, 50%. You're right.
You're right. You're right. I look at these poll numbers. There's a lot of grousing by certain unnamed, we can stand in a podcast host that the Republicans ought to be walking away with these races with President Obama's numbers so low.
The Democrats are running really not. They're stepping on their own toes again and again. The President Obama did it today as you pointed out. And we just ended with a really dumb comment about we don't want women choosing to stay on the their own kids.
It was really bad in, of course, Mary Landru calling her own voters racist and sexism Louisiana. And yet all these races are so tight. You've looked back about the data. Is this an unusually close year or have people just forgotten how close the polls were?
Because when a legend comes around, what usually happens is somebody wins while you have 3, 4, 5, 6, and that's that. I'd say if I'm the higher end of uncertainty in the back of the year, that's when they're only two, Georgia and Minnesota, that were within 3, $1.30. Yeah, pretty good. You have to think about that.
There was more than 30, 25, and 25, and 25 races and 20, 12 that were close and ended up breaking in some more direction. So yeah, I think it's really up in the air. But at the point of the day, it really isn't the best it could be for Republicans. I mean, Minnesota and Virginia, if those are states that should be very tight, but they're not.
It looks like an old friend of all people who are walking away with us in Virginia. I'd go at these closing, but you still got some ground to make up a look. So I'd phrase for him. So why is it then, do you think that watching the swings that we saw in 2006 and 2010 that this year with, I mean, I can't imagine things for worse for President Bush than 2006 and the over-presence Obama today.
And one of your, one of the folks who you know know at Real Propolitics, John Trendy, who's almost got their, he points out that there's this almost iron-clan relationship between the presidential frugal rating and how his party sent again this fair. What do you think is going on that's kind of overriding that trend? Well, it's important. I mean, we look at that at 2010 year, but I think that with 2006 and 2010 comments, his voters were able to vote against, you know, a party that controlled both Congress and the White House, Republican controlled both House, House Senate and the White House in 2006 that are kind of complete control back in 2010.
And so, you know, there wasn't a bunch of choices, I'm not sure what that is, but now you have Republicans in the House who are terribly popular. You know, we've never been shot down spending a couple of not being so popular. And so I think there could be a little, you know, you know, you know, insiders who don't like Obama, they see the House Republicans not too happy with going on there. They might just not show up online, but I haven't been here, so I'm trying to use that.
I'm trying to figure out the Democrats out there for the fact that they're probably not disappointed in. And so, using your three point margin, you mentioned that there are two Republicans seats that are clearly in danger, Georgia and Kansas, but there are also other Democratic seats, we didn't really mention people do Hampshire. Gee, change within that margin, right? Exactly.
Gee, change in Hampshire and you know, I'm sure you're not going to vote at those three points of polling. You know, they're all over the place in Hampshire. So now, as I showed, you know, 18, they've got other polls showing their time. So, you know, some pollers are going to have to go to Facebook or like them.
So, the goal is to get above three, so many of these races are so close and they're not there. Based on what you're seeing from looking at the campaigns, from hearing from Republican Democratic Actors or everyone inside of the D.C. Where do you see the momentum going? Because every time I see a story that says, oh, there's a problem at some point, I'm not going to say the polls are not showing that race is what they should be widening or narrowing.
Well, I don't know. I mean, not to be a chicken, as the popular way to the week. But, yeah, I see signs that go both ways. And you're not going to be having great views.
You know, it's not about a few different areas. All the cases, when the race is over every point, you're just going to break. You know, the polls are off by one point in favor of Democrats. I'm going to see 55 Republican senators off by a couple points in favor of Republicans right now.
Republicans might not even think of it. So, you know, a lot of them are in the other. But I mean, I do see the fundamental being a pro Republican here that President Obama- and the popular voters should break at the end of the day. They do show up.
They should break at the president. So, I am probably on that more like the Republican voters have a great year than a terrible year, but there's a lot of uncertainty too. One last thing I said, Mr. Bing is going to be one of the things that we've understood, which is the quality of the campaigns and the candidates.
I've just been a lot of talk, at least, like I'm in Georgia and I'm also following the right to close with it. You know, these Democrats are running great campaigns, and that's why they're being a competitive. And I agree that they're running good campaigns. But they're getting, they're taking as much as they're getting, particularly because Obama's so unpopular.
I wonder if this is not part of the iceberg of the Republican brand problem that's only going to get worse based on current demographics, if something doesn't change, starting to show itself that the size of untouchable Democrat vote votes is significantly, it's getting bigger and bigger in big or psycho-cycle. And now it's just so big that they're always going to be close to racist or wins for the Democrats. Yeah, I'm sure I think you can't recall the idea that the Democrats are playing while, you know, Minnesota, and Virginia have it become competitive. Like, like, the cori-darners break in and caught out of their earnings, you know, if they got created for a guy with them, I would not think he might come with someone like Joe Jones and a farm girl turn combat, you know, very personal, very likable.
You know, in Minnesota, you've got a business executive party that's Republican in a problem that in Virginia, I mean, I'm interested to like it in the college with lobbyists and, you know, I thought that's a good thing to get very hard on for lobbying, you know, there's a lot of bad news about him being in Ron's lobbyists. You know, I can't think of a client that's like, you know, Tom Tillis is suffering in North Carolina, if he's a speaker of a popular North Carolina House represent, but an Arkansas someone like Tom Todd is only going to Congress for a couple years, has a military background. He's really running away from him. You know, there's some stories back over the summer about how Tom Tillis are in Tom Todd, and he's been on the stop.
He's not running away from it, so I think that's a story of the picture. So finally, I also forget about today we were public control the Senate and how many seats we pick up in Joe John Corinne. And we are marking the tape. I don't like to know that he forced me.
Yes, I'm looking for a second thing. They got a duty. Fits out for the rest of the month. That's what I was in December in Louisiana and in January in Georgia.
How, by the way, shades of 2000, we have a 4950 split with, excuse me, a 50, how that worked. Once it comes out of one seat in the Georgia, that's not the side of January, that's what I'm saying. That could theoretically happen. Very well, you know, Georgia's had a lot of demographics, really, a lot of growth in African Americans.
We're looking to do a lot of their job of winning over and if they don't, they can have time for Georgia. John Corinne, thanks for joining us on the standard for checking time. Thank you.