Journal review, extinction shaping, and why big box ABA is struggling — 2026-08-20

Journal review, extinction shaping, and why big box ABA is struggling - I read a study on masked visual analysis (MVA) versus traditional visual analysis in multiple baseline designs. Two methods only agreed with each other on 75% of graphs, so I dug into why. - My take: MVA exists because statistical analysis used to be too hard for clinicians to run. That barrier is mostly gone now. In five years I think insurances will want numbers, not graphs. - A student asked how to operationally define a kid shutting down. I said look at what they are not responding to and whether it causes harm. If it does not cause harm, define the actual behavior you want instead, like getting up from a task. - On tolerance building, I walked through shaping with extinction on small chunks of time. The key question is what you do after a kid taps out. You back off a couple seconds, get a few wins, then push forward again instead of jumping straight back to the old target. - On automatically maintained behavior, I explained how I treated spitting with competing stimuli and an enriched environment, then faded access with a multiple schedule. I gave a test for telling competing stimuli from a true functional match: does the original behavior come right back once the item is removed. - Someone asked if we should require student analysts to take a counseling course. I do not think the BACB adds much more coursework soon since it would slow down how many BCBAs get certified, and there is already huge demand for BCBAs. - A BCBA vented about non-BCBAs telling BCBAs how to do their job at big companies. I broke down why ABA businesses are splitting into three types right now: BCBA owned shops losing ground to competition, private equity groups with money but shaky clinical quality, and investor backed groups trying to hold both together. - My honest opinion is the businesses winning right now are run by a clinician or clinician adjacent operator who reinvests in clinical quality first and treats happy clients as the real marketing engine.