JP Morgan’s 2026 Fed Rate Forecast and What It Means for Mortgage Rates

JP Morgan is predicting the Fed won't adjust rates until 2027—but should homebuyers really believe it? Tim Lucas and Craig Berry unpack the forecast, explain why mortgage rates don’t always follow the Fed, and break down what actually matters when you’re deciding whether to buy a home in an uncertain rate environment.In this episode you'll learn:What JP Morgan is forecasting: Chief economist Michael Feroli expects Fed rates to remain steady through 2026 despite persistent inflation and continued economic growth.Why markets disagree: Many investors are still betting on rate cuts as early as June, creating a sharp disconnect between Wall Street expectations and institutional forecasts.The Fed myth: Why the Fed funds rate is an overnight bank-to-bank rate—and not the primary driver of long-term mortgage rates.What really moves mortgage rates: How factors like mortgage-backed securities, global events, market sentiment, and government policy often matter more than Fed decisions.A key policy move to watch: The administration’s directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed bonds—and why it could directly impact mortgage rates.Lessons from history: How mortgage rates hit record lows in 2020 before the Fed’s emergency cuts.What homebuyers should focus on: Why personal financial readiness—income stability, affordability, and savings—beats trying to time the market.Read the full article: https://www.mortgageresearch.com/articles/jp-morgan-economist-believes-fed-done-cutting-rates-what-that-means-for-mortgages/