July 01, 2026

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, July 1st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo warns that both Washington and Tehran are poised to squander their leverage in the Iran peace talks, with American negotiators misreading Hezbollah and Iran floating a fantastical $40 billion Hormuz toll scheme. Kushner and Witkoff landed in Doha as talks stretched into their thirteenth day, but Tehran flatly denied any plans for direct meetings, while Moody's estimates the war has cost the average American household roughly a thousand dollars. Presumptive British Prime Minister Andy Burnham unveiled a "Number Ten North" devolution scheme in Manchester, reviving decades-old regional promises that Iain Macwhirter argues are unlikely to revive Britain's flagging economy. and now for the details. We begin with the delicate negotiations to end the war with Iran, where both sides appear at risk of squandering their advantages. Last week, U.S. negotiators announced a framework for a Lebanon-Israel deal, premised on Israeli withdrawal being matched by the Lebanese army moving into vacated areas to prevent Hezbollah from returning. As Jude Russo writes, this is wishful thinking. If the Lebanese army were strong enough to clear out Hezbollah, they would have done it already. The entire problem is predicated on the weakness of the Lebanese state. Russo argues that American negotiators still misread Hezbollah, treating it as an Al Qaeda-style ideological actor when structurally it more closely resembles the Irish Republican Army, straddling politics and militancy, and enjoying broad popular support. Any real settlement, he contends, will have to reckon with Hezbollah directly. On the Iranian side, Russo points to reporting in the Wall Street Journal that Tehran expects to generate roughly forty billion dollars from a proposed toll system on the Strait of Hormuz—two orders of magnitude beyond what Turkey earns administering the Bosporus. Russo warns that pressing such maximalist demands will encourage regional players to route their exports elsewhere, turning control of Hormuz into a wasting asset. He suggests a more modest fee structure could actually embed Iran in international administration as a normal nation, while indirect talks mediated by an inexperienced Pakistan continue to produce avoidable hiccups. The question, Russo concludes, is whether two governments uniquely ill-suited to getting along can resist returning to form. Staying with the Iran file, U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha on Tuesday as talks entered their thirteenth day. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei rejected White House claims that Iranian negotiators would meet the Americans, saying Tehran has no plans to meet Kushner, Witkoff, or any other U.S. official in the coming days. Qatar's Foreign Ministry confirmed there will be no direct negotiations while the envoys are in the Qatari capital. As Harrison Berger reports, CBS News, citing Moody's chief economist, estimates the Iran war has cost the average American household roughly one thousand dollars in higher fuel, food, and other expenses, including three hundred dollars more for gas and two hundred dollars more for groceries. Oman's foreign minister appeared to back Iran's proposal for Strait of Hormuz fees, drawing a distinction between transit tolls and voluntary service fees. Meanwhile, Lebanon's National News Agency reports continued Israeli drone and airstrike activity in the south, with Lebanon's Health Ministry reporting more than four thousand two hundred people killed by Israeli strikes since March. Brent Crude closed Tuesday at seventy-three dollars and ten cents a barrel, with the national average price of gasoline at three dollars and eighty-five cents. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.