July 09, 2026

Good morning! Today is Thursday, July 9th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Andrew Day warns that Trump is repeating Biden's 2022 mistake in Ukraine, waving off peace talks just as Kyiv briefly gains momentum, even as interceptor shortages leave its cities exposed and analysts warn the pendulum will soon swing back toward Moscow. On day 131 of the war with Iran, President Trump declared the ceasefire memorandum "over" after overnight strikes and Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, sending oil prices climbing even as 78 percent of Americans say they want the war to end. and now for the details. We begin this morning with the war in Ukraine, and a warning that Washington may be repeating a costly mistake. Russian missile and drone attacks continue to pound Ukrainian cities, and the Ukrainian Air Force says a serious shortage of interceptor missiles meant that none of the 23 ballistic missiles fired at Kyiv on Sunday night were shot down. And yet, according to reporting from Axios, European officials say the message from Washington in recent weeks is that Ukraine has the upper hand on the battlefield, and the White House feels less urgency to launch a new diplomatic push. As Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative, that assessment echoes a fateful choice made by the Biden administration back in November 2022. At that time, Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley urged the White House to press for a diplomatic settlement while Ukraine held battlefield momentum. Secretaries Blinken and Sullivan argued against it. Milley, Day notes, turned out to be right about the war's trajectory. Now, Day writes, President Trump appears to be making the same wager. Ukraine has scored dramatic deep strikes inside Russia, including an attack on energy infrastructure that knocked out power across occupied Crimea. But Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities cautions that the pendulum is likely to swing back in Moscow's favor, given Russia's advantages in firepower and manpower. Day points out that the moment is not comfortable for Vladimir Putin either. A recent Levada Center poll found 67 percent of Russians want peace talks to begin, a record high, and a Gallup survey found a majority of Russians saying local economic conditions are worsening for the first time in the poll's 20-year history. Day argues that with Trump having reduced direct American support and Europe carrying more of the burden, Washington is a more plausible mediator than before. But, he writes, resolving the war was a key Trump campaign promise, and the best time to push for peace is when the wheel turns in Ukraine's favor. At some point, Day concludes, the Ukrainians won't get another turn. Turning now to the war with Iran, which has entered its 131st day. Speaking at a NATO summit press conference in Ankara alongside Secretary General Mark Rutte, President Trump declared that the memorandum of understanding signed last month to stabilize the ceasefire is, in his words, over. Trump said Iran's leadership are "scum" and "cuckoo," and called further talks a waste of time. As Harrison Berger reports, the president's comments followed an overnight exchange of strikes. The U.S. military said it hit Iran in retaliation for Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps then launched retaliatory strikes against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, claiming to have targeted 85 American military installations, including the Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Trump told reporters the U.S. would "probably hit them hard again tonight." Secretary General Rutte applauded the strikes as "completely the right thing to do." Berger notes, however, that a CBS News poll released in late June found that 78 percent of Americans want an end to the war now. Global markets responded to the escalation, with Brent Crude oil rising above $79.80 per barrel Wednesday morning, up from $71.50 at the start of the week. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.