July 16, 2026

Good morning! Today is Thursday, July 16th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Anthony Constantini argues in The American Conservative that the Ankara NATO summit exposed a European strategy of flattery and exaggerated rearmament designed to stall Trump until 2029, and that the Pentagon's force posture review should pave the way to bring U.S. troops home. The Iran War hit day 138 with a seven-hour U.S. bombing campaign and Iranian retaliatory strikes on American bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, as Trump threatens to target Iran's power plants and bridges next week. Harrison Berger reports that the battle over the Strait of Hormuz is escalating, with Tuesday seeing zero transits through the U.S.-coordinated Omani channel while 21 vessels moved through the Iranian route, sending Brent Crude above $84.50 a barrel. and now for the details. We begin this morning in Ankara, Turkey, where the latest NATO summit has wrapped up with fewer fireworks than many expected. President Trump did demand Greenland and threaten to sever trade ties with Spain, but he ultimately confirmed the United States will remain in the alliance for now, calling the summit, in his words, "tremendously successful." That reassurance came alongside news that the White House recently blocked a Pentagon plan to cut the American troop presence in Europe by a third. Writing for The American Conservative, Anthony J. Constantini argues this outcome is a pity. As Constantini reports, European leaders have held secret discussions on how to defer any major decisions on the alliance until the end of Trump's term, with some proposing to scrap annual summits altogether so NATO can, in his phrase, fly under the radar until 2029. He notes that despite the flattery, the rearmament story is largely oversold. Estonia does spend 5.4 percent of GDP on defense, but that amounts to just 2.4 billion dollars—less, he observes, than Pennsylvania spends on its Department of Corrections. Slovakia's spending is flat, the Czech Republic's is declining, Italy is padding its numbers with domestic law enforcement, and Germany has walked back its grand promises. Constantini's deeper argument is that even successful European rearmament would not clearly serve American interests. Our allies already have the capabilities to deter a conventional Russian attack, he writes, and more European defense spending could actually raise the risk of a direct NATO–Russia confrontation over Ukraine. He points to the Pentagon's ongoing six-month review of U.S. force posture in Europe as the opening for a clear case to bring American conventional forces home—the ultimate card, he says, that the president should be prepared to play. The Iran War entered its 138th day on Wednesday with a sharp escalation. U.S. Central Command announced the completion of a seven-hour bombing run against what it described as Iranian missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, and coastal defense systems. Iranian media reported that one of the strikes hit a wheat storage facility. On Fox News Tuesday, President Trump warned that all of Iran's power plants and bridges will be targeted next week unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps struck back, claiming hits on a U.S. military logistics center at Kuwait's Mina Abdullah port, the Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, and Al-Azraq base in Jordan. Harrison Berger reports for TAC that the fight over the Strait of Hormuz is intensifying. The Wall Street Journal found that two of the three latest vessels struck by Iran were part of a U.S.-escorted shuttle run moving about 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. On Tuesday, shipping tracker Kpler recorded zero transits through the U.S.-coordinated Omani channel, while 21 vessels moved through the Iranian channel. Tehran points to article five of the memorandum of understanding signed by Trump and President Masoud Pezeshkian, which assigns future administration of the strait to Iran and Oman, and denounces American pressure to open a rival channel near the Omani coast. Brent Crude climbed above $84.50 a barrel on Wednesday morning. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.