July 21, 2026

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, July 21st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. W. James Antle III argues President Trump still has a narrow window to reshape the headlines and salvage GOP midterm prospects, as the resumed Iran war threatens to eclipse falling inflation and expose Republicans to a quagmire they cannot outrun by Labor Day. On day 143 of the Iran war, fresh U.S. airstrikes and Iranian retaliation have brought more American casualties, collapsed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and pushed gas prices above four dollars a gallon — though mediators have floated a 10-day ceasefire proposal. Yemen's Houthis have declared an immediate maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, putting the Yanbu pipeline and Red Sea export routes — the last major workaround to the Hormuz crisis — squarely in their crosshairs. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a look at the political stakes of the ongoing Iran war for President Trump and congressional Republicans as the midterm elections approach. Just weeks ago, headlines were dominated by falling inflation numbers, with core inflation dropping to 2.6 percent in June and mortgage rates easing. Those were the headlines of a ceasefire. Now, with the war resumed, the front pages instead carry news of American service members killed, depleted munitions stockpiles, and the risk of a wider conflict. As W. James Antle III writes, public perceptions of the economy will be largely baked in by Labor Day, and attitudes about the Iran war may already be set — neither to the president's benefit nor to the benefit of Republicans defending narrow majorities on Capitol Hill. Antle notes that Trump himself, in a recent Fox and Friends interview, acknowledged that he did not know if America has the stomach for taking Iran's Kharg Island, saying the public would like to see the troops come home. Iran is tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. bargaining leverage has weakened compared to a decade ago, and casualties will further sap public support while making a diplomatic exit harder to secure. Antle warns these are the ingredients of a quagmire — precisely what Trump had said he wanted to avoid — and argues that the president still retains some power to shape what headlines are written in the days ahead. Turning to the war itself, now in its 143rd day. U.S. Central Command conducted a fresh round of overnight airstrikes on Iranian military command centers, air defenses, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks. Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks on U.S. bases and infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain. The Department of Defense on Monday released the names of two more American service members killed by Iran over the weekend — 19-year-old Private Isabella Gonzales of Carrollton, Texas, and 25-year-old Lieutenant Tyler James Feehan of Ewa Beach, Hawaii. President Trump vowed on Truth Social that every American killed will be avenged many times over. The New York Times reported that the Pentagon has withheld information about dozens of injured service members, a claim the Defense Department disputes. Harrison Berger reports that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed, with just eight vessels transiting on Sunday and only 30 verified crossings between July 17 and 19. Two tankers were struck off the coast of Oman on Monday. Brent Crude is now trading above $88 a barrel, and AAA reports the average American gas price has crossed $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-June. There is, however, one thread of hope: Reuters, citing a senior Iranian official, reports that mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire to revive an interim deal, and Iran's Foreign Ministry has confirmed receiving the proposal. The White House highlighted polling this morning showing broad public support for a peace deal to end the war. The war's ripple effects extended further Monday when Yemen's Houthis announced the immediate launch of what they are calling a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia. The group cited recent strikes on Sana'a International Airport and what it described as a nearly twelve-year Saudi siege of Yemen. As Harrison Berger reports, it is not yet clear how broadly the Houthis intend to enforce the embargo, but the target set is significant. Saudi Arabia exports energy westward to the Red Sea ports of Yanbu and Jeddah, and the Yanbu pipeline — which handles up to 5 million barrels per day — has been serving as an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz, helping offset the disruption there. NBC News reports that a full closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait would cut global oil supply by seven percent, leaving most Saudi exports stranded. The Houthi announcement puts one of the last working workarounds to the Hormuz crisis directly in the crosshairs. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.