July 30, 2026

Good morning! Today is Thursday, July 30th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck U.S. positions in Jordan on day 152 of the war, prompting President Trump to vow a "beating" in retaliation, while U.S. and Saudi airstrikes on Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces reportedly killed six Iranian advisers. Dr. Ionut Popescu argues in The American Conservative that the Iran war is a lose-lose trap, with Operation Epic Fury failing to break Tehran while hardliners now menace the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. bases across the region. Popescu warns that more than a thousand Tomahawks expended on Iran, alongside depleted Patriot and THAAD stockpiles, have opened what CSIS calls a dangerous window of vulnerability for a Western Pacific conflict with China. and now for the details. We begin with the war in Iran, now in its 152nd day, where a brief pause in hostilities appears to be over. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile attacks on U.S. positions in Jordan, framing the strikes as a response to what Tehran called illegal American interventions. The Jordanian military says it shot down five Iranian missiles, with no casualties or damage reported. In an interview with Fox News, President Trump vowed to give Iran, in his words, "a beating" in retaliation for what he called a surprise attack. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United States carried out overnight airstrikes against Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces, responding to attacks on Saudi oil facilities that Washington and Riyadh blame on Iran-aligned Iraqi militants. The Associated Press, citing Iraqi militia officials, reports that six Iranian advisers were killed in that strike. As Harrison Berger reports, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran has rejected Oman's proposal for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, and Yemen's Houthis are said to be weighing tolls on maritime traffic through the Red Sea. Shipping tracker Kpler showed an uptick in commercial crossings through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Brent Crude sat at ninety dollars a barrel Wednesday morning, with the AAA national average price of regular gasoline at four dollars and nine cents per gallon. Turning to analysis of that conflict, Dr. Ionut Popescu argues in The American Conservative that the Iran war is a lose-lose situation for both Washington and Tehran, and a symptom of a larger disease: American adherence to a militaristic grand strategy that ignores the realities of a multipolar world. Popescu writes that since Operation Epic Fury launched in late February, heavy-handed military confrontation has failed to produce structural change inside the Iranian regime. Instead, it has pushed Tehran toward more disruptive capabilities, and hardliners now hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage and threaten U.S. bases across the region. Popescu points to Clausewitz's warning that war must serve policy. The U.S. air campaign, he says, achieved tactical successes, destroying nuclear facilities and air defenses, but failed at its core objectives of neutralizing Iran's nuclear program and triggering regime change. A late June Quinnipiac poll found sixty percent of voters believed the military action was not worth it, with sixty-two percent disapproving of the president's handling. Popescu also cites a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis warning that the U.S. has fired more than a thousand Tomahawk missiles at Iran, a stockpile that will take until late 2030 to replenish, and that Patriot and THAAD interceptor inventories may not recover until the end of the decade. CSIS calls this a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict. Popescu's conclusion: every carrier strike group tied down in the Middle East is diverted from great-power competition with China, and the prudent path is a negotiated return to the status quo ante. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.