July 8, 2026 · Fire in the strait, deals in Ankara, and Mashhad waits

The fragile peace between the United States and Iran is faltering. Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — a Qatari gas carrier and a Saudi oil tanker confirmed hit — which Washington called a clear violation of the memorandum that ended June's war. The US revoked the license letting Iran sell its oil and launched what CENTCOM called "a series of powerful strikes" on Iranian air-defense and missile sites; Iran's foreign minister says negotiations "will not commence if threats continue," putting next week's planned talks in jeopardy. Oil jumped. In Ankara, NATO's summit paired a multibillion-dollar arms-deal blitz with a fight over President Trump's signal that he'll sell F-35s to Turkey despite a congressional ban — a move Israel's Netanyahu publicly opposed — as today's declaration and the watched Trump-Zelensky and Trump-Syria meetings land after we publish. Iran's funeral for its slain Supreme Leader crosses into Iraq today, bound for a Thursday burial in Mashhad, while the son named to succeed him stays out of sight. In Ukraine, Kyiv counts its dead from another barrage and arrives in Ankara asking for interceptors. And at home, a lawsuit alleges the government handed Iran the case files of Iranians seeking asylum from it. FISA Section 702 reaches day twenty-seven. Sourced inline. - **Fire in the strait** — Iran hit tankers in Hormuz (a Qatari gas carrier, a Saudi oil tanker; a third reported); the US called it a clear violation, revoked Iran's oil license, and launched "powerful strikes" on air-defense and missile sites. Iran's FM: talks "will not commence if threats continue." Next week's round is in jeopardy; Brent +5.5%. - **Deals in Ankara** — NATO's Day 1: a >$40B counter-drone push, Northrop Triton drones, an ATACMS co-production draft. The fight: Trump signaling F-35 sales to Turkey despite a statutory ban — Netanyahu objecting. Day 2's declaration + the Trump-Zelensky (Patriots) and Trump-al-Sharaa meetings land today, after we publish. - **Mashhad waits** — Khamenei's funeral crosses into Iraq (Najaf, then Karbala) today; burial at the Imam Reza shrine Thursday. The named successor, Mojtaba, stays unseen — kept from the funeral over assassination fears. - **Ukraine's ask** — after a barrage Zelensky put at 68 missiles and 351 drones (at least 22 killed, per Ukrainian authorities), Kyiv arrives in Ankara pressing Trump for Patriot interceptors in today's bilateral. - **The files** — a lawsuit alleges the administration shared Iranian asylum-seekers' case details with Tehran since 2025 (ICE calls it false); FISA 702 stays lapsed at day twenty-seven but collection continues; USTR forced-labor tariff hearings run; the US won't renew USMCA as-is. More analysis at [Power Moves Before Policy Does](https://annardudley.substack.com).