July 9, 2026 · A broken ceasefire, a burial in Mashhad, a coast bracing

The June peace is over. At the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran finished and called its leaders "scum," as US forces struck Iran for a second straight day — about a hundred and seventy targets in all. Iran says at least fourteen of its people are dead and claims it hit US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain; those governments say they intercepted the attacks with no casualties. Oil jumped. And all of it unfolds as Iran buries the Supreme Leader the US and Israel killed in February — a Thursday-morning burial in Mashhad closing a six-day funeral, with the son named to succeed him never once appearing. NATO's summit delivered a seventy-billion-euro pledge for Ukraine and a headline of unity, but Trump handed Kyiv only a license to build its own Patriots — years from a fired missile — moved to lift Syria's terror-sponsor label, and floated pulling a third of America's troops out of Europe. Ukraine buried four of its own after an overnight strike on Odesa, as the reignited Iran war drains the very interceptors Kyiv needs. In China, a dam collapse and days of flooding have killed dozens and driven a hundred thousand from their homes, with a super typhoon still to come. FISA Section 702 reaches day twenty-eight. Sourced inline. - **A broken ceasefire** — Trump declared the truce with Iran "over" and called its leaders "scum"; the US struck ~170 targets over two days. Iran reports ≥14 dead and claims it hit US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain — those governments say they intercepted, no casualties. Oil +5%. The June 17 memorandum's window is in jeopardy. - **A burial in Mashhad** — Iran buried Khamenei Thursday at the Imam Reza shrine, the funeral's final act, as the bombing resumes. The named successor, Mojtaba, never appeared. - **Ankara's ledger** — NATO's declaration: Article 5 "ironclad," €70B for Ukraine, >$50B in procurements. But Trump gave Kyiv only a *license* to build Patriots, moved to delist Syria as a terror sponsor, and floated cutting a third of US troops in Europe. - **Ukraine's shortage** — an overnight strike on Odesa killed 4; the reignited Iran war burns the same scarce Patriot interceptors Kyiv is begging for. - **A coast bracing** — southern China reels from a dam collapse and floods (39 dead, 26 in Hengzhou, 130,000 evacuated, Xi's "all-out" rescue) as Super Typhoon Bavi tracks toward the east coast. USMCA not renewed; FISA day twenty-eight; UK Labour opens nominations. More analysis at [Power Moves Before Policy Does](https://annardudley.substack.com).