June 15, 2026 · The Iran deal, the Anthropic shutdown, the FISA lapse

While Pip Install was off the air for tech difficulties last Thursday and Friday, four days of news happened. The United States and Iran exchanged direct military strikes on and over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran closed the Strait. The US struck Iran twice. Iran struck three American Gulf allies. A US strike on a commercial tanker killed three Indian sailors. President Trump announced on Sunday that the Twelve-Day War is over — signing Friday in Switzerland. Anthropic released its safest model ever and was ordered to shut it down within the week. FISA Section 702 expired at midnight Saturday. SpaceX priced the largest IPO in history at $1.75 trillion. South Korea sentenced its ousted president to thirty years. Trump struck and killed the leader of Tren de Aragua. UFC Freedom 250 happened on the White House South Lawn yesterday. Pope Leo inaugurated the world's tallest church. China drilled Taiwan blockade capabilities. Warsh chairs his first FOMC tomorrow. - **The Twelve-Day War ends** — Trump announced Sunday on Truth Social: *"The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete."* Strait of Hormuz reopens with Friday signing in Switzerland; US Naval blockade ends same day; Pakistan's PM Sharif as mediator; Iranian Deputy FM Gharibabadi confirms; 60-day follow-on talks; permanent termination of military operations on all fronts including Lebanon - **Oman tanker, three Indian sailors killed** — MT Settebello hit by US precision munitions per CENTCOM; Aditya Sharma, Shivanand Chaurasiya, Patnala Suresh dead; India summoned the deputy head of US mission in New Delhi; the blockade being enforced ends Friday - **Anthropic Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 SHUT DOWN by US government order** — first known modern use of federal authority to force a frontier AI lab to pull live models; NSPM-11 the legal predicate; the safest frontier models ever released, pulled within days - **FISA Section 702 lapsed midnight Saturday** — 19 Republicans + 199 Democrats voted no on renewal; the Bill Pulte factor; Jay Clayton nominated permanent DNI; existing orders remain valid for up to a year under the grandfather provision - **SpaceX priced at $1.75 trillion** — largest IPO in history; first trillion-plus US IPO ever; pricing pressure on the simultaneous OpenAI and Anthropic filings - **Yoon 30 years, Guerrero Flores killed, UFC Freedom 250** — Yoon Suk Yeol and his former defense minister both sentenced 30 years; Tren de Aragua leader killed in Venezuelan strike; UFC 5,000-seat octagon on White House South Lawn; Public Integrity Project lawsuit - **Pope Leo in Spain + PLA drills Taiwan blockade + Russia-Ukraine** — Sagrada Familia Tower of Jesus Christ inaugurated as world's tallest church; PLA Eastern Theater Command rehearsed blockade capabilities; Ukraine struck Crimean Titan plant June 13 - **Warsh's first FOMC tomorrow** — 97.4% probability of hold at 3.50-3.75%; pivot from easing bias to neutral expected; dot plot is the watch More analysis at [Power Moves Before Policy Does](https://annardudley.substack.com).