June 17, 2026

Good morning! Today is Wednesday, June 17th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Eldar Mamedov argues the U.S.–Iran peace deal set for Friday's signing in Geneva exposes the limits of American military power and opens the door to a long-overdue strategic recalibration in the Middle East. As the Iran War hits day 109, Trump publicly rebuked Israel's conduct in Lebanon at the G7, even as Israeli ministers vowed to continue strikes and reject any U.S.–Iran agreement. Iain Macwhirter reports that right-wing divisions between Reform UK and Rupert Lowe's breakaway Restore Britain could hand a key by-election—and eventually Downing Street—to socialist Labour challenger Andy Burnham. and now for the details. We begin with the U.S.–Iran peace deal, set to be formally signed this Friday in Geneva. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed this week that intensive talks have produced a cessation of hostilities between Washington and Tehran. Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to sign the agreement alongside Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the same official with whom he negotiated in Islamabad in the first U.S.–Iran talks at this level since 1979. Under the terms, military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, are to end, and the Strait of Hormuz is to reopen. The memorandum of understanding also kicks off sixty days of further negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. Writing for The American Conservative, Eldar Mamedov argues that the deal's significance reaches well beyond a transactional ceasefire. He says the war revealed the limits of American power: Washington entered believing conventional superiority would compel Iranian capitulation or regime change, but air campaigns and strikes against the IRGC produced entrenchment, not surrender. The threat of force, Mamedov writes, had preserved American leverage, while the actual use of force destroyed it. Mamedov identifies the diplomatic coalition that wound the war down—Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey—as the template for a new regional architecture. He contrasts them with Israel and the United Arab Emirates, which he says pushed for escalation in an attempt to outsource their security dilemmas to American forces. The opportunity now, Mamedov contends, is for the United States to become the offshore balancer it long claimed to want to be, sharply reducing its Gulf footprint while ensuring no single regional power dominates. He notes that spoilers remain on every side, from neoconservatives in Washington to hardliners in Tehran to the Israeli government, and warns the agreement could still collapse before reaching its second stage. The fragility of that deal was on display Tuesday, as the Iran War entered its 109th day. At the G7 Summit in France, President Trump publicly criticized Israel's conduct in Lebanon, saying Israel is fighting Hezbollah too long and that too many people are being killed. Trump added that, in his words, you don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you're looking for somebody. As Harrison Berger reports, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that any continued Israeli military action or occupation of Lebanese territory would constitute a violation of the memorandum of understanding. Israel nonetheless continued strikes on southern Lebanon, where at least 3,826 people have been reported killed since March 2. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the occupation of southern Lebanon would continue indefinitely, and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel is not bound by any agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Berger also reports, citing the Financial Times, that the Trump administration is prepared to establish a $300 billion investment fund for Iranian reconstruction if a nuclear deal is attached to the broader agreement. Haaretz reports that up to $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets could be released, tied to toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the negotiating window. Brent crude stood at $80.46 a barrel Tuesday, with the national average price of regular gasoline at $4.04—both easing on hopes for a diplomatic settlement. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.