June 28, 2026

Good morning! Today is Sunday, June 28th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Andrew Day skewers Ben Shapiro and allied commentators for scapegoating "useless white people" after Democratic Socialists swept New York's primaries, arguing the right's incoherent fixation ignores how demographic change and Israel's conduct in Gaza are actually fueling the socialist surge. U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian drone and missile sites drew retaliatory attacks on American bases and a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, even as Israel's continued bombing of southern Lebanon threatens to unravel the framework Marco Rubio just signed. Evan Cooper and Will Smith map three futures for U.S.–Iran relations, warning that a return to "mowing the grass" is most likely but urging Trump to pair a limited nuclear deal with a real military drawdown from the region. and now for the details. We begin in the Persian Gulf, where the fragile peace between Washington and Tehran took another hit overnight. After U.S. Central Command launched strikes Friday on Iranian drone storage, missile sites, and radar installations, Iran responded early Saturday with what it called defensive attacks on U.S. military targets in the region. Bahrain's foreign ministry has condemned drone attacks on its territory, and another suspected Iranian drone strike hit a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. strikes followed an attack on a Singapore-flagged ship that had been transiting along the Omani coast rather than through Iranian-designated routes. As Harrison Berger reports, all of this is unfolding on day ten of negotiations meant to finalize a settlement ending the Iran War. Meanwhile, Israel continued to bomb and occupy southern Lebanon, just one day after signing a framework agreement with the U.S. and the Lebanese government. Berger notes that the framework, spearheaded by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, risks undermining the deconfliction mechanism that Vice President J.D. Vance had built into President Trump's interim peace agreement, which calls for the immediate termination of military operations in Lebanon and respect for Lebanese sovereignty. The Times of Israel reports it was precisely Vance's deconfliction language that infuriated the Israeli government. Hezbollah has rejected the framework outright, warning that forced disarmament could fracture Lebanon along sectarian lines and trigger civil war. Polling cited by Berger shows the country deeply split, with overwhelming Shiite and Sunni majorities opposing disarmament, and Christian and Druze majorities supporting it. Brent crude closed below seventy-two dollars Friday, with gasoline averaging three dollars and eighty-eight cents a gallon. Staying with the Iran file, TAC offers a longer view of where this relationship could be headed by the end of the Trump presidency. In a joint analysis, Evan Cooper and Will Smith lay out three possible scenarios shaped by the recent memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. The first, and they argue the most likely, is a return to the status quo ante: periodic U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, sustained sanctions, and a heavy American military footprint across the Middle East. Cooper and Smith call this "mowing the grass" and warn it solves nothing while locking the United States into a costly cycle. The second path they call the Charm Offensive, in which Iran negotiates in good faith, accepts meaningful limits on its nuclear program, and receives reconstruction funds and sanctions relief in return. The third, which they title "Time to Get Out of Dodge," sees President Trump simply declare victory, draw down U.S. forces well below pre-war levels, and let Gulf states build their own regional security architecture and a modus vivendi with Iran. Cooper and Smith argue that maximalism did not work before the war and will not work now. The memorandum, they write, represents a strategic defeat for the United States, and the worst outcome would be pretending otherwise. Their preferred course combines a limited nuclear deal with a serious reduction in American military exposure, freeing Washington to redirect attention to more pressing matters at home and elsewhere. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.