K-Shape Recovery Impact on MBS, and Cash Window "Revolution"

Kirill Krylov and Steven Scheerer unpack a January housing slowdown driven more by weather and normalization than structural weakness, while highlighting a meaningful shift in buyer leverage and rising discounts off list prices. They then turn to household balance sheets, where climbing credit card delinquencies reveal a growing K-shaped dynamic that could dampen refinancing behavior in higher-coupon Ginnie cohorts. The episode closes with a deep dive into the GSE cash window, examining how competitive execution, selective collateral retention, and shrinking specified pool lists may be quietly reshaping supply, convexity dispersion, and market structure.