Kazakhstan’s oil shock, Kyrgyzstan’s crypto bet, and a new power broker

This week on the CAPS Unlock podcast, we examine two sharply different but ultimately connected economic stories from Central Asia, before turning to a revealing interview on Kazakhstan’s changing business landscape.We begin in Kazakhstan, where official data show a roughly 20 percent year-on-year drop in oil production in the first quarter. The decline reflects a convergence of disruptions: a fire at the Tengiz field that temporarily halted output, and repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on infrastructure linked to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Together, these episodes expose a structural vulnerability that is easy to overlook. Despite the fall in volumes, export revenues have held up, largely due to higher global oil prices. That apparent resilience masks a deeper problem: Kazakhstan remains heavily dependent on a single commodity, exported through infrastructure shaped by geopolitical risk.We then turn to Kyrgyzstan, where the government is attempting to position the country as a regional cryptocurrency hub. The scale of activity is striking, with transaction volumes far exceeding national GDP. But the reality is more limited than the headline numbers suggest. Most flows consist of simple currency conversions, often linked to cross-border transactions that bypass traditional banking channels. The government’s challenge is clear: can it transform this transit function into a genuine financial sector, or will it remain a conduit for external capital?Finally, we speak with journalist Chris Rickleton about his investigation into Shakhmurat Mutalip, a little-known businessman whose rapid rise places him at the centre of Kazakhstan’s strategic industries. Rickleton outlines what is known about Mutalip’s background, the role of the infrastructure giant Integra, and the significance of potential deals involving major mining firms. The discussion points to something larger than one individual: a possible reconfiguration of economic power in Kazakhstan, with implications for both domestic elites and foreign investors.LINKS* The Diplomat, Chris Rickleton & Ardak Bukeyeva, investigation on Shakhmurat Mutalip - https://thediplomat.com/2026/04/investigation-is-shakhmurat-mutalip-kazakhstans-new-chosen-one/* Radio Free Europe/Radio Ozodi – Tajikistan forced cotton cultivation report - https://www.ozodi.org/a/dehqonhoro-dubora-ba-kishti-pakhta-majbur-kardaand/33731032.html Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe