The underdog is howling. This is steadfast and the bear is a home team getting points. What's better than that? Welcome in it's the preview of one of the top three Saturdays of the year bear is this your top?
No, go on weekend is actually my top is I think those are the best getting races. I mean growing up on island of being a New York I It's my home track. It's what I know best and I have a I think I have a pretty good knowledge and the biggest advantage I could possibly have on top of a week, but this weekend is a it's a top three for horse racing Yes, it's this weekend breeders cup Saturday and bollocks. All right, well we might get into the idea long island getting a hockey building later On the podcast that's been a tough subject.
I like them tonight by the way But anybody's listening to or seven or seven or thirty night. I do like them tonight. Are you familiar with the phrase LFG? Yes, I would you know what I'm gonna say it.
No, I'll say let's fucking go all right. Let's go here We have a little bit of change, you know Put it's a it's a great story and you my friend are gonna be there You're on a flight tomorrow head of the Churchill Downs Can you just let the people know what's at stake what the build up has been and why the hell you're going? It's actually the first time I'm going to the Derby since Super Saver one So it's been a while since I've made a parent to Churchill Downs and and that the Oaks and the Derby is not the main reason why I'm going The the horse and I actually own I guess like the tail The tail of the of the horse that is mostly owned by my friend in college on top of the Courserine Street So street is entered to run on the undercard race number nine at Churchill on Friday on Oak's day Unfortunately, we're on the also eligible list, but I would think in a field of 14 in front of them I would think we'd get the one scratch we need to get in especially if it's an off track and It's exciting. I mean we never really thought we would have a Derby horse on our hands or a massive great It's but to be potentially involved Obviously the my protect lea whoever said the morning lot of Churchill Travis I don't know who it was except this race, but he likes him because he has enlisted to one morning Like if he does draw in we got a great shot of potentially being in the winter circle It is it's a good little feel that I think the horse that worries me the most if we were to draw in would be the seven horse solid wager Peter Miller's horse taking a cutback from graded six company back into allowance company and Kind of becoming from off the pace and I would expect that if we get in it's longer than we've ever gone We've gone six five and a half Seven we went that's actually that's a talk to the horse though.
Hey, we gotta give it a little more We're all the same but the same time he did run the seven for long race But he had no shot and there we got totally that's saying and he knows it dull Mars said the graded stakes race They both you're a one too nice out any drew inside and you got knocked around it was never really in it But at the same time, this is a third race off the layoff he ran great in his race off the long layoff Ran second to horse it totally freaked and then last race kind of regressed like the pattern would suggest and he still held on and gutted it out And held off the clothes which was good. So now he's set to run what I think should be his best race to date I'm good to me. So if he gets in from the outside post I think we got a good shot. All right.
I love it So pumped for you guys. It's a great story is Galloway gonna be there too No, no No, that would mean Joey would actually have to throw on my dress pants. He's right. No sweatpants sneakers.
Yeah, no no shot Okay, all right. So here's the deal This is what I want to do and hopefully everybody could follow along obviously have your pen and paper What we're gonna do is we're gonna start with Friday bear Just thought you why he's going and street sense is racing on Friday. It's all free I wish we said to see why the hell I keep saying why does watching Street sense early? Yeah, and current curling was probably the best words in the race your post three and just couldn't get out there We'll talk post three in the dirt a bit.
All right, so let's do let's start with stay with Friday with the Oaks All right, then we'll take it and then we're gonna start bears got its picks for the whole all the stakes races on Saturday That's included starts with race six goes all the way up to 11 and then the Derby is race 12 And then we're gonna do some some some quick multiple question some quick quick answer questions about being in that owners box But as far as the food and the drink how many guests you can bring stuff like that. All right, so let's go to the Oaks bear It's being at the Derby. I actually enjoyed Friday better than Saturday. I can understand.
I think it's just so awesome Everything that's involved everybody's just you know, it's you know, it's you know, it's going to dinner You have a place as great appetizers like I'm an appetizer guy. I'm not going to dinner I want to see what the appetizers have but Friday is as good as it is Everybody wearing their pink, you know supporting the cause and you know, the Oaks is for the ladies So what let me let me just say this I plenty has been said she's not the favorite But I'm just gonna say this I'm all on Serengeti Serengeti Express. That's my horse I know people say, you know when when everything's fine and it's not gonna be fine because there's a lot of horses in this race You might not be used to that, but I'm gonna go I'm gonna go with Serengeti Express here and to win this race That was a real head scratcher of performance last time out of fairground tradition Seventh at what the odds of what three to ten with it? Yeah, the only thing I worry about Serengeti Express is the same reason I worry about or it's like J Walk who real her three-year-old form hasn't been that good I think it's gonna be a lot of company upfront.
Yeah, and I think Bellafina will run her race She's another horse another Philly that likes to be near the front Ken stock But will she be too close to the front and I think she might be and I think that ultimately makes her a little vulnerable I'll look for some prices coming from from off. I'll use Bellafina obviously in all every spot in the try I think she should hit the board she's felt it the board what twice in her career I agree once in a career which was the breeder's cup at Churchill Downs Which you really just drew a poor post and and finished fourth which is it's usable But I'll use the three lady Apple as a price horse. Okay. Yeah for tomorrow the five who was beaten by Bellafina out in San Anita last race the 10 Champagne anyone in Wilks horse who should be coming from off the pace the 12th Street Band for for Larry Jones who Was beaten by Serengeti Express a couple back Never really gets bit one one at fair rounds at 11 to 1 in her last race And then the 14 Russell's ruler for Kenny McPeeku tends to pop from time to time in a big number in the Oaks I will use up those five horses up with Bellafina in my exact interval alright three horse exactly who your top three Top three would be a try the top three would be Bellafina.
Okay Street Band and Russell's ruler all right, so that's the three the 12 and 14 all right. That's the Bears. I'm on What is Serengeti? I didn't see there get his presence the 13 8 to 1 love it.
I love it Alright, so that's the Oaks we'll be back in a second with all of the Bears favorite picks from all of Saturday at Churchill Downs Including all the stakes races and the Kentucky Derby obviously But first I want to take a second and tell you about behind the bench with Doug cuz Ariane Doug's got a great guest with John of Elo on to talk about the Derby this week and all things horses that you want to know This week find it on Apple podcast or your favorite podcast app Alright, let's get to Saturday. What everybody's gonna be doing. I'm hoping to get out early head to the OT B to watch it You'll be at the track I will be at the track owners box. No, no one just the Cease that Kirk has oh, he's just gone.
I'm sure those are the glass didn't want. No, no glass We're not covered but outside probably would you realize I know if people haven't been there just passed the finish line The higher you go up is the better is where you better better. Yeah, yeah, and a food drinks are cold I got a credential so I can kind of mill about work. Oh, you're everyone probably go upstairs go the bathroom You want to mess with a minion gen pop Up is where we're going.
Have you ever gone on the infielder? I've never watched from the economy. I've ever walked around okay I did not go I'm I'm old about for a little bit on a oak stay a while. Okay.
Well, it was good That's very good. It's like it's a 100% chance of rain. So at least we have that going for us. All right Let's go race six at Churchill seven for a long what are you looking here?
I think it's gonna be hard to get past Marley's freedom She didn't have the best of trips last year up in the in the breeders cup finished fourth From a really bad post. She's drawn much better here smaller field. It looks like there's a good bit of speed in here We talked with to me in these challenge Me and mischief though. It looks like there's enough in here to keep her in a good striking position from just off the pace I think she'll be a difficult favorite to deny.
Okay, so that's it. We'll just go with that one right? Maybe the five any challenge underneath and then up in the three me is mischief. I can do that All right, that's race six also ran also ran in the breeders cup.
Yeah, that's right. I figure that all right Let's go on race seven here is one mile turf mile What are you looking at here? I'm at the time I'm recording is I'm going to assume for all these races We're gonna have an off track got turf. They'll keep these things on the turf I'm going to assume and I'll candy cap for like soft turf being the amount of rain and the steadiness of the rain that they're likely gonna get So I'll assume soft to good to yielding definitely not firm I think there are a lot of ways you can go in in the this after smile Obviously a jet brown source produce the six will get a lot of play But I think you can make cases for a proctor's ledge who won this race last year the three bow recall Bright Cox's horse at 10 to one is really intriguing price and bright Cox has been red hot in the state of Kentucky lately I mean I read on that one.
Yeah, who's obviously fits that And in chat brands other horse the nine environs with up I rise brother Jose Ortiz up one under a hand ride a little bit of Lesser field it keel in his first start in the her first start I should say in the US basically They didn't ask her at all and this will be a step up in class But I think she can handle it and you're gonna get a much better price on her than you are on on the six So I think it eight one. I would prefer to use environs over the six produce But you'll throw pursuits in there. Yeah, I go for us for us exact the box 3 4 6 9 1 in those sources guy would be the ones that I would use and Pursuce will go off as a favor. I would think so and more I feel a little a little uneasy leading that leaving daddy is a legend off the ticket because she's a really game-filly You always runs well.
So if you're gonna make a trifecta out of it. I would definitely use her as well daddy's always legend Just remember all right. All right, uh, your daughters tell you. No, no, no, no.
We haven't gotten that far yet. They're still trying to figure out colors Uh, let's go to race eight seven furlongs. Um, let's see what do we got seven eight We got 12 in here. Oh, we got 12 in here We got more racing with more with more is racing ran in this race last year and um And didn't really have a great ball stuck down inside on the slop last year One still and that wasn't the place to go but oh yeah, he ran really well against me tall out for an uh It oak lawn and I think I'm against I'm against me tall here I think between him bobby's wicked one promises fulfill potentially doing Lucas's horse warriors club I think there's a lot of speed in here.
I think there are a lot of ways to go. Obviously limousine liberal loves this track 659 here I for 12 with the distance. I think he's obviously uh, I must use um do share as an intriguing horse for his maker Also on the inside but again, how's the track gonna be playing if it's sloppy with the inside be bad? Um, I think the nine uncontested as a horse that might be warranted to take a second look at Second race off the layoff but was bet down to favoritism in the commonwealth who raised that up bobby's wicked one one In liberals third so he was favoring that race didn't exactly get the The best of trips maybe needed the race and as a result, you're gonna get a really nice price attention one Yeah, and I think Whitmore from the outside He's shown he likes Churchill.
He likes the off-going obviously the post I think did him in last year But I think if you were to pick a winner, I think the winner will come from limousine liberal uncontested in Whitmore All right, and I don't think you'd want to completely throw the eight out I mean I would use I would use him in your exact as any trifectus as well But I look at for a little bit of a price those of the three horses that would use to say bobby's wicked one No, Bobby's wicked one. I think it'll be a piece factor here. Okay. I don't necessarily think um He will win I had him taking a really nice number, but I will stand against him here I don't necessarily think you said limousine liberal limousine liberal uncontested in Whitmore would be the three that I think can uh can win the race Got it.
I don't think bobby's wicked one's gonna get away with the uh, you know a little bit more company up front today Two nine twelve if you just want a couple horses to around you know, you're bored on Maybe use the four in the enemy you're waiting around White ran out you got quick. I can say you got twenty dollars in your account fool around with you know what if you have 20 in your account Make sure you throw in more money than 20 all right. We're going all day exactly. It's all right pace yourself Yeah, don't go crazy, you know, but know that know that the super balls at the end of the day We'll have some fun early on This isn't necessarily a less you bet more you lose when you're wearing type of day.
This is a less you bet The less you lose a lot of times on these uh on these big sticks days. All right next uh stakes race is race number nine This is my own sixteenth if i'm reading this correct. Yep. All right.
Yeah, a threat of blue is the other three to one Morningline favorite and I don't think you could have drawn any worst horse that like what I got a question for you What would it take for you to like a favorite on the on the rail? You know going it, you know with these stakes races I would you would have to be like newspaper of record type good. Yeah On on friday's six race because I always get sucked into like, you know what I kind of like that You know they might not have anybody in the inside with you know knowing the surroundings You know that I still think the surroundings play a factor in these horses Yes, and there's nothing to prepare them for so I always I always lean towards the one because knowing the familiarity with nobody being inside I it's just it's just me. I know I'm not a trainer or anything But I just want to ask you because that's how I look at it I think here you look at you look at a threat of blue It's his first race at Churchill.
It's his toughest Task to date and he's a type of favorite. He's three to one. It's not like he's four or five They defied anything like that and again. He's a horse that's gonna be on the lead He's gonna be pressured the entire way around and I think there are again a couple of different ways to go In this race sure, maybe there is not a ton of pace in this race But I think if that turf is kind of kind of boggy and often what a collects down on this inside pads I think that really could affect him.
I looked two horses and they're both double jute prices I looked at the four-bucky prince who I think will get a much better trip than he did It goes three last time out when he finished fourth One at one at the distance one at the mile distance at fairside three back I think he absolutely figures for a four-bride clock cocks and florin sure and I think the 12 the black album Okay, and the breeder's kept jubilant for either of them last year wasn't really bad kind of went around the track Prep for that. I think this race it keeling last time out his air tease road hangs around to ride today Double the price in the morning lie. I think the second off that long layoff This horse could be prime to run big today. I can't fault anybody that likes kasakrit I think he figures I think there are ways to go in this race outside of the of the favorite side the two that I would go to would be more key prince in the black Album, okay, that's the four and the 12 any love for ron splatter and abby slatter.
Yeah, no absolutely Absolutely, uh figure in here. I think it's a little bit of a step up I know he did win the transelvania last time out over over the black album, but we'll um We'll see if that horse can put together consecutive wins four for five lifetime. So again you like that horse I won't I won't talk you off shout out ron splatter. I know he'll be there I'll be I'll be I'll be conversing with them over the weekend and that's my I'm glad you said that too about a horse It's a price.
I mean because people do ask me. Hey, what do you think of blah blah blah? Hey, I like blah blah blah as a price in my rule is I may have an opinion on it and I might not like the horse But I will never try and talk someone off of a of a horse. That's double digits because I wouldn't I would hate myself if I talk someone off of a big price and they wind up winning You obviously have a conviction a reason why you like the horse at 15 12 20 whatever it is Go ahead and bet it.
All right. That's why that's why that's why you're good because I got a lot of double digits I think I'm gonna be looking at oh Looking at this looking at these steaks races. I yeah Yeah, yeah I mean might as well and whether is the great equalizer in a lot of these because some you know You just don't know if some horses are gonna translate to the off track. Yep.
All right race 10 Now we're getting to the juicy the juicy ones the pat day mile here some familiar names to all your horse lovers out there in this one um I wow, this is very interesting. Yes, it is. Whoo. We got 15 horses as of right now Instagram will be the favorite look like you could have instagram Just because that after was that at aqueduct well, we're terrible at the Gotham and Brand finished third in the short field to to uh to road steering game winner in the instagram cross him off that I I We got pick five here if instagram wings this race.
I will be knocked out of the pick five heads up Just so you guys know I think I think the horses form from from from two to three Hasn't improved dramatically. Yes, this is the softest spot. He's faced this year But but I think there are better options in here. I think mr.
Moneybags obviously will give him some some pace presence up front and he didn't necessarily Have a difficult time up front in the senate of derby and he gave it and again There are no roadsters and there are no game winners in this race, but I think you can go you can take a look at mr Money the seven trend by bracaloon Was running it's gabial size size. Okay, we actually rode freezing fire in the uh, 2009 Kentucky derby like it was the favorite that day 2009 you just busted out a jockey from the 2009 that was the favorite and not not a good showing at that no No, but but if you look at mr. Money not mr Money bags that's the four so be careful golden sense. It was a really good horse heck.
Yeah, seven for a long to a mile Cateria speed mr. Money broke his maiden fun a good price of church all back in September went right into the readers of juvenile I ran fourth not not poorly at all obviously long layoff and grand if their grand maybe didn't like Fairgrounds those greatest six company now comes back to church. Oh, really one I think at 12 to one he's a must use and I think captain von trapez a horse that drew poorly outside in the in the rebel Didn't have the best of trips and was in position and then gave it up and trap shot another horse myler was really really good At that distance. He's 15 to one stretches out now with church ill from 6 and a half where he ran pretty well It's a two-year-old now goes to a mile I think you can certainly get it the Santana rides a lot for perceived asking us I think that horse is live and a guy who wins at box cars is just outside Instagram and that's Dallas Stewart Frolic more more Third and that and then allowance race it up a keen on last time out another one broke made in a church Oh, it's seven for a long is the favorite with right well a church with 21 Yeah, he had a horse with when the ash and I think it like 41 he went he's had big He said horses in the Derby run big at big numbers.
He hits the board and stakes races with big prices So I give the up at the 11th of the 11th for all of more the nine captain bond trap and the seven mr Money a long hard looks in this race as pretty viable alternatives to your favorite Instagram say seven nine eleven I said seven nine eleven. Okay. All right. I like yeah nine eleven looks.
All right global campaign. No love five to one The 15 well, he's got a draw in yeah, if he were to draw in I think he would have a shot It's just like I'm talking about on the rail. I always worry about you know It's short eyes being that far out, you know, I don't know the rail right and then that far out Yeah, the mile distance out there is a long run down the back stretch So you should have enough time to to be able to work something out It's like the short turn we were gonna get hung out to the but if he draws and he's totally done shut All right, and then the prequel race 11 the old forester turf classic is a mile and an eighth Raging bull the two at five to one you like it and then in Chad Brown's other horse that was a life in death to win If there's a last time at bricks and mortar is the five to morning life favorite I couldn't take five to two on bricks and mortar in this race. Okay.
I mean that market off the horse that he beat If there runs last time out was key three to one and he just got by him last time out fairgrounds now You can look at it two ways He wasn't fully cranked for that race off the two-month playoff And this is the goal all along and he said to improve or that race took too much out of him and he's gonna regress a little bit here If I had to two I can't that this horse was confidence to win can he win? He'd be on my ticket. Yes, but I think there are a bunch of ways to go in here I think the rail horse krabon for for Kerry McLaughlin I think he figures as a horse that adds blinkers He might hit the front a little bit too soon in the makers cup mile makers makers mark mile Keeneland just missed and against some good horses Tampa Wanted Saratoga in the Baruch Beaten by neck shares who's who figures in this rate? He's a really game horse and maybe that edition of the blinkers for it with Mike Smith and Kerry McLaughlin will make a difference here Each one he will absolutely be on my ticket the gate breaking the rules of 15 to one who is a Ortiz Shouldn't be should McGay he is another horse that I think coming from off the pace But this horse was favored in his last three races granted One of them was an allowance race one great estate.
You just missed against crappus And now you're getting 15 to one on a on a on a Fips a fist home bread for sugar knows a Ortiz. I'll take that any day of the week the nine synchrony is a horse that does done The majority of his best running fair rounds But but I do think he's someone who you need to take a look at using here I think maybe more in the underneath type mold Johnny V just it is Johnny V Just a guy Johnny you said and I think another interesting horse that I mentioned before was that was next share So he was six in the kill row seven or two that day Another horse an outside post long run to the to the first term should be able to get a good A good spot. I think it'll be hung out too wide from post 13 there. He's drawn just outside of bricks and mortars So again that price of 12 to one for a Richie Baldt is who wins a lot of races a lot of stakes races at big prices Trade and Van Daikou is quite familiar with from California.
I think he's he's a must use as well So I think Ken bricks and mortar win. Yes. Well, I use them on my ticket Yes, but I will also use the one the eight nine and the thirteen is otherwise And if you're if you're really looking for a long shot, you need to say the five well I'll tell you what the five five is the five is burned a ton of my money When I was watching the race and fair rounds I was wondering about my What is this horse on the lead? It was 60 something to one and then I remember it was market off.
I actually had market off It go stream is 46 to one back in that race in March 3rd 2018 when he just Couldn't get off the off the inside and find her So he's I've had the horse a couple times a big numbers and if he would have wanted 60 something to one I didn't have him I wouldn't have been I'm gonna be happy with my but but the horse just outside in Clides image Okay, it's a horse that was beaten by Delta prints in that race Finishing from your bond and the maker's mark as well So he's a horse for Tom Bush that he sends out some pretty live turf runners as well So he might be a horse that's worth inclusion on your ticket as well So this is a race I think that sets up for a lot of prices to be involved Yeah, this should be awesome race It's gonna be great. Hopefully the turf lead up Hopefully the turf condition won't be too bad and won't have too much of an impact on the race All right now for the Super Bowl What we're gonna do here is get some thoughts on the horses But what I want to do because this is what I like to do and I'm taking over right now for a second You can take over whenever the hell you tell me who I should cross off who I don't want this horse do hopefully horses in any of my Exactors, okay, so horses and not only don't have a chance to win but one hit the board Yes, let's go the one war will won't hit the board one will not hit two tax won't hit the board Okay, before a grand magician won't hit the board okay 10 cutting humor won't hit the board okay 11 high goal won't hit the board whoo all right 15 Masterfencer won't hit the board okay The 18 long-range toddy won't hit the board all right and spin off the 19 one hit the board all right Three four five six seven eight horses get them out get them out all right now. Let's get down to the business all right Let's go to that three post Very unlucky three posts in this race if I'm correct right it is well It's interesting because there were two horses left Yes at the draw With the pills when the pills were being drawn and by my standards one of them and the favorite all my Beach was the other and at the time there were two spots left three and 12 No, Maha Beach drew the 12 by my standards unfortunately through the three But this post won't affect him as much as it would have a Maha Beach He's a closer. He's gonna come from off the pace He's gained some good buzz as a potential price playing underneath and I can certainly understand that he ran over an off track at Churchill I'm second in his debut Beat winners first try last time out of fair grams of 23 to 1 I think is running style here could put him in the mix for a third or fourth place I don't know if he's good enough I starts to wins Yeah, I don't think he can win but I'll use for second third We've seen horses like looking at Lee revolutionary golden soul plod up and get second get a good finish from an inside post lately At big numbers.
Oh, I will use him to hit the board. All right, my mind sucks. Okay possible three from underneath Yeah, all right next four across and off five improbable thoughts I think all three about backwards horses are live. This horse reminds me.
What was the race that I watched improbable and Oh, come on. Oh, come on. Oh, come on. That what a race try I mean you could see I'm probably trying to go to that overdrive gear and it's just like I don't know if you couldn't get there But I mean Omaha Beach was and that was in the mud too So that that was pretty telling to me I still a lot of things where there was obviously there wasn't 20 horses in that race But to see those two horses go at it down the stretch would be fantastic if we got that again and I think Improbable is set to improve off of that race because he's gonna have he's gonna have more help up front and potentially softening on my Beach up and he's taking blinkers off here, which I love yeah I read for mine That was the first time he put him on right and I wonder if in the back of his mind Maybe Bob has the derby targeted for the source the entire time And he thinks that taking the blinks off were gonna relax him some and cause him to maybe come from a little bit further back And get a better trip in the derby But it reminds me a lot of Palace now in 2013 some reason they put blinkers on this what Tyler pleasure did in 2013 put blinkers on Palace now is with Kentucky Derby Why I don't know but I was super ecstatic when they took him off him in the Belmont and he was 12 or 13 Whatever he was to one and he won for fun Yeah, and it reminds me a lot of that situation where horse was way too close to the lead Then he normally was take the blinkers off relax comes up with a big run from off the pace to win But he's proven on off track He's got good stamina on his bottom side With APN speed breeding on the sire side and remember last year the knock one of the knocks on up justify was all that Speed breeding on the tops on his side by however he had distance breeding on his damn side the same type of Formula here a router tease is one of the best jockeys you could have going back Yeah, I'm gonna give this word I'm gonna give him a little bit of a break for not being able to win one of those races in Arkansas because of the Boinkers last time training getting Somewhat compromised because what's going on in San Anita's race schedule getting screwed up far outside post That was the crazy race when I hoored the three got bumped all the way outside on that on the first turn I was watching Yeah, I think it was crazy But crazy where he's in I think there the connections are happy with that draw as well because you go back the last Seven years in the Derby post-fos but a good spot.
It's two winners. Love it three other horses that have finished in the money So odds are you're gonna work at a good trip from there? I think in probable. It's very live if in probable was college football team Are they Georgia or they out of a George George is a good comparison?
Okay? Yes, he got all the tools was so close Two years versus Alabama Right there and he just couldn't get by I think you like alright, so it sounds like I mean I'm on the five I think the five gonna win this race sounds like you're definitely throwing them in Yes, okay, all right. Let's go to the six but coma. I didn't like the bluegrass I thought it was a really weak field a really really weak race suspect in a staggered home Mm-hmm, but at the same time the horse did win You've won a couple of great mistakes races good connections for a hover cast a lot out again I don't this horse should be near the front of the front of the field And I think ultimately he won't be around when we're running comes because I think he's gonna stagger home and you'll get passed by a lot of Closures and then again We just don't know for sure what how your cast line is gonna do because last year in the Belmont You should have been up on the lead with nobody and wasn't yeah So it does he take back here and just try to make a run late and really not run the way that the form would indicate or not You'll look at again.
This is a good example of a horse that I don't necessarily like but a 20 to one I'm sure so people do like him and we'll play him I have a I feel like mkshay in Kuiper's scouting report I was reading a couple scouting reports but coma is a visually awkward running style where his leg where his right front leg kicks Higher than normal and grabs at the ground in a choppy motion while his front left move slightly sideways I don't like the sounds of that when you're trying to run forward. Okay, okay To day two is what you're saying We're gonna have to see what he ran his pro day to make sure we get a good time I will not have a coma in my stuff just because of that that that totally jumped off the page and scared me But you're saying it's possibility. Yeah, I'm not very not all using because you got it Yeah, you can make a case for him on paper to finish third somewhere on their fourth all right Here's my my sleeper right here. This is the seven.
This is maximum security. I have an analogy But I want your thoughts are here. All right for races. I believe for no right?
Oh, well four starts correct And I watch was that was the four years or four years or you won the big the million out right? I'm really impressed by what I've seen my my my question is maximum We mentioned it four starts four wins. All right is maximum security UCF I was going to make the analogy that maximum security is Notre Dame Oh, and the reason I say that is because he did win the grade one The Derby and Notre Dame last year did beat Michigan. Yeah during the season and now they're going into the deep end away from home in the toughest race against the toughest competition that he's ever gonna face and you've got Alabama Clemson home in the race Well, I was asked about so you're not worried about maximum security's proven enough like the competition after I was saying No, no, he's not proven.
He hasn't faced enough right even though. You know I was wrong. Oh, no, I'm thinking about yes. Yeah, I think what he beat.
Okay, I think between um, the Bill Montwurst and I'm forgetting the the name of right now who is favored in the race in his role. Yes Thank you between him between code of honor who was a good or I think he answered questions there, but but he got a very Easy lead in that race hidden scroll for whatever reason. I don't know what I Had no choice but to go from the rail and get it and as a result that's some security is grabbing early lead and All right, I'm sitting around the track and opened up so you get a little UCF and a little Notre Dame. Okay here I think he's in the I will say this I don't know ultimately who's going to win.
Yeah, but with a quarter from out to go in the race Maximum security will have yeah, that's what I like to hear that happens from there. We don't know anybody's game. Yep Anybody's guess but this horse Obviously they didn't think much of you probably had some physical issues Which was why he debuted for a $16,000 maiden climber. Yeah the West who own this horse also own your British have juvenile winner Yeah, game winner was trained by Bob Bafford.
So is this an instance of maybe not saying that some security is going to be a total rabbit in the race for game winner, but They're just playing with house money at this point Game and the maximum security is a kind of a hot button trigger type horse for for the Derby as well Anybody was in the inside racing knows that Jason services horses seem to run very well off the claim and some of his these cheaper horses Tend to show insane speed so if this horse were to win I would guarantee that there will be some Saturday night and Sunday morning headlines coming out of the race that maybe racing doesn't necessarily want Okay, keep your eyes on that think back to big brown all the stories and questions around the trainer there and the stories that We're coming in there. You'll see a lot of parallel. Okay. All right, and now the eight This is the one I was gonna say was Notre Dame because it's everybody's darling and that's tacitist I want you with a wooden memorial typically is a very good Traditionally strong prep race in New York you think best horses in New York and it was just tacitist and tax right in that one Yeah, I go ran the race But he was kind of as well and you watch you watch the race and anything like the end of Notre Dame season He had some trouble kind of Northwestern was a kind of a tougher game USC gave him a battle around the time He didn't have the best trip in the wood He's still one and he got sent off at an overlaid price in the in the Tampa Bay Derby So he's won both of the starts this year, but again two of the biggest mushy as I know are on this horse He's not gonna mention any names right?
No, no, it's not the one that you mentioned to me earlier by the way It's two. It's three. Yeah, it makes three. Yeah, exactly.
All right and this is the horse that I've had so many unsolicited opinions. I hey wait, what do you think it has to us? I kind of like him and That immediately means he is Gonna Vera Mendelssohn frosted Norman Norman the invasion Sarlan name the name the trendy mid price runner that you want to try and beat the Favorite with that's what he is take into account as well Bill Mott sources I'm none of his eight derby runners is finished better than seventh eight six of the eight finish eleven the worst and We're talking about the wood being traditionally a good prep They haven't had a runner even cracked the trifectus in 2003 when funny side and emperor maker both Ran one and finished second in the derbs like 15 16 years since the wood produced a legitimate threat in the derby Maybe Cassidy look I just I just one thing I will say I like I like that I was a or Jesus written all four all four of his races I think that really helps in a race like this am I nuts to say that no It doesn't he knows the horse He knows the horse's capability and running style and how he's going to be most comfortable to be in his his best style that day So yeah, this is the horse I'm going to use and put on my ticket because the form is telling me he figures Yeah, but you don't love it But the fact that everybody in the world is seeing that he fits and people not is a really respected guy that people would love to see When a when it can tuck you derby you're not gonna get into one on the source I don't think I don't think when they're running through the up like all those picks on Saturday afternoon a I like the eight after you're here. Herbie when they go to him that Herbie even made this role for that is a new thing to me especially for you guys win Friday We have to get to Rico on that right to tell me to make sure partners make sure camera finds find Terp Street.
Yes Yes, usually I know her. Yeah, he's gonna be at the first turn. There we go. He has a set right there Which isn't too far from we're gonna be there you go beautiful.
All right, so test is you're gonna have to throw them in But we'll get to the final version a bit. Okay, plus Q parfait. We got speed up here. Yeah, we got to go Yeah, exactly.
I'm sorry plus Q parfait The board you eat derby winners typically don't run well these us based I think Brendan Walsh being a US base trainer He trains at Churchill Midwest is what's run well the source run second It's Churchill left your overall track. I don't think you can win but I'll use him in my tries and supers Okay, the 10 we threw out. I call I've watched one race. He closed like I've never seen before I think that was a case meltdown and I think he's better as a closing sprinter But I'm gonna take across I'm not gonna talk you off.
Yeah, I'm sorry But I'm doing that that was that wasn't the wood no that's a Gotham state We got the one instagram in the piece. Yep. Yep. That's one.
I then 12 is Omaha Beach He's a half length for being undefeated this year From being undefeated on the dirt which they thought he was a turf force initially He's been great. We talked about the post position early the fact he was post 12 He gives Mike Smith options if he gets beat it's not gonna be because of that post draw It's just gonna be because you got beat on the square I just wonder if you can serve Smith is two for 24 in the Derby He said the favor to second choice six times only one one of them That was last year was justified I just wonder if the pace of the race with the sources to his inside Maybe spin off from the far outside might set it up for a probable or game winner or another closer All right, 13 coat of honor. I might feel I have a feeling you really like the source I do like the source I think he could be a forgotten horse on the board if you look at his past performances his first race this year It Gulfstream when he was beating it at odds on four or five and then mutual macho man off the layoff after the good Run of the champagne came back and nearly ten to one won the fountain youth on youth That was the one that's in that some security got away with that easy lead didn't help code of honor at all in the Florida Derby So I think here you're gonna see his odds trip up again obviously 15 to one if he's close to 15 and one on Saturday I will absolutely I'll be on the source. I Close it, right?
Give me anywhere That's what I like I think you could really As long as he's worth the pace as long as the pace is an astronaut I think he could fall into a good trip like he did in the fountain He was cut the corner and really come fly home like okay the 14 This is the one I think that's gonna be the most public bet just because of the name win win win your thoughts He falls into the category of I don't really think he can win or maybe maybe not hit the board But if you look at his form he was favorite against house it is on the tip big derby when without this one He was seven to two in the in the bluegrass like I said well I didn't think the bluegrass was a great race he had a horrible trip where he basically got to come to a near stop Can he continue on maybe crack the super that he could I think he can win but I think he's a youth underneath alright 15 we threw out 16 game winner. I know you've had you have futures on the source No, no, no, not still alive anymore. I did not have the team that won That was a couple final four teams. Yeah, I did not have Virginia as one of the combinations.
Okay Another I mean five the one now could go off as a favorite possibly possibly I think you'll probably be second choice though You think I'm a big favorite, but look some people think you might have peaked at two But I think he's got a excuse of the last two rays We talked about getting shuttle to Oak lawn and in just missing against Omaha Beach from that in that race Roads to rent a huge race to close and pass him at Santa Anita could remember 1998 and even 97 silver charm as well Baffert's horses. They didn't win their final prep race going to the Derby This is the same situation with game winner horse wanted Churchill from a far outside post in the juvenile last year So I don't think the outside post hurts him here if you look at What you all Rosario when he's given amount that you look on paper has a chance and is live He's one with or right he's given the great of calls a good run He's give a frosted. I think was a good run as well And this kind of a mention the sentimental thing with the West's I'm the way I'm gonna approach the race I am confident that either or improbable or game winner will will run for a second Okay, I really like it bizarre. Yeah, we talked about I can't believe or was six years ago already 2013 that's I love it I know you do Roadster six to one You just mentioned it ran an awesome race at Santa Anita of all the Baffert horses This is the one I'm the most worried about I don't even I think if you talk to Bob You probably couldn't tell you who the best of his three are but I think the way they drew and the fact that Rose He's coming off the career top.
He's due to regress potentially a little bit here and then if you look at the post 17 I'm sure it brings back bad memories for Baffert is in 2001 point given fish fifth It's a favorite from post 17 a more spirit wasn't able to work at a good trip from post 17 Historically you got to go back to 1988 49er to find the last time a top five betting Joyce broke for post 17 That finished in the money since then the eight runners have finished 10 10 13 15 six and eight So a lot of times he's highly thought of horses haven't been able to work out a trip from post 17 We'll see if a foreign true picks up the mount on Roadster by the way Mike Smith took off and shows on my beach over some got it We're throwing out the 18 or throw out the 19 and 20 that's country house Yeah, I don't think country house can win but I think with Bobby and Pratt we've seen his two Derby bounce out run their rods completely with them with a salamini and with Battle of Midway both ran great. I don't think this horse can win I think the outside post isn't really gonna affect him as much because he's gonna take back He's gonna make a run pick off as many as he can and maybe this horse can complete the the triers I would imagine you're gonna see number 20 in the middle of the track splashing on the side of the track pick off as many as you can Leet all right My accent eight horses to the Derby as best finish was last year with off for king seventh Just something to keep an eye on boe express ma possibly not gonna draw and I had the west of Florida Derby that day as well Great whatever was happened didn't have it had him across the board. All right, so let's go Let's just you know by the way all your stuff is gonna be on ESPN dot com the truck section You can get it bear thoughts on every horse in the Derby all his picks. We got horses across the board play show He's got exact is he's got tries.
He's got everything on there. So make sure you check out ESPN chalk You know on ESPN calm. I'm just gonna run through a bear, you know across the board you would take the five to 13 in the 16 Yeah, that's a probable game winner and coat of honor. Okay.
All right, and then you know I think literally you're gonna get five to one maybe on game when you play impressive Where you gonna press there? Yeah, and then to touch the board. You'll take a shot with the three the nine the 14 and the 20 Yeah, exactly. I'm gonna go play show on those horses just because I think you're gonna get odds of at least 15 to one yeah They show it 21 in this field at 24 speed you're gonna get a good price and then you're already got to say a seven horse exact A box.
Yeah, I'm more of a more of a key. Okay. I'll key I'll key game winner and improbable in one spot and then I'll use I'll use like seven other horses I'll in addition the game winner and probable in the up in the spot with them I have a three five eight nine twelve thirteen fourteen sixteen seventeen twenty as the horses that I will use in the other exact A spot with a game winner and probable. Okay.
I also saw you got a dollar exact the box down here three five Yeah, twelve thirteen fourteen that's just in case game winner and probably don't hit the board and it runs in a combination of two The other ones and you catch a price. I want to make sure I get a little something What how did what do you have to do to have every horse in the race? You got to spend a lot of money. Yeah, right and so how would you do that?
You would you would wheel and key? I Will with my trifectives the horses I gave it before that throw out. I'm not gonna use them as well on the tribe What I'll do is I'll play I'll play the two horses that I really think I'm confident about game winner and improbable in one spot and the other two horses who I'm Second most confident about Code of Honor and Omaha Beach in another spot in the try and then I'll play everybody but those seven horses in the second Third spot to try got it Okay, and this will all be outlined on the on the column on Absolutely depending on your bankroll your budget and your handicap and your paying you can take your leave Before we get a million questions about the podcast. Do you want to say anything else as far as your bets?
No, we're good. All right, and one I will say this if you tell me that you would have won the race if you didn't if you just boxed it I don't want to talk to you box your stuff. Yeah It's funny because because what what happening was It's like Steve Pannas the other yesterday before put it out on Twitter about the gray and flash it back to Chocomo The year of fleet Alex one and I love the fleet Alex in the race I played a field of fleet Alex all all and all a fleet Alex all in my trifectus what did my play all all the fleet Alex what happened? Giacomo Thank you one closing argument 70 to one a fleet Alex third and the try was whatever it was and life would be a whole lot Different and I spent the what would have been an extra hundred and eighty nine dollars.
I think mm-hmm. It always is Well have fun don't get too crazy You got Friday and you got Saturday Especially with an off track and maybe some turf race that might come off. It's definitely a definitely take it easy Marathon to ease into it. Especially so burn through that bank roll.
Yeah, exactly anything else on the way out Maybe pre-preakness pre-pGA that we have to be at the PGA Yeah, I'm a teacher man with your face on it. I don't know why We're gonna promote the bear the podcast we should promote the podcast All right that should do it and thanks for listening any questions, please hit us up Sam or Steve 82 I'll do my best to get to him. You are incredible. I'll try obviously It's a busy weekend at the track and who knows what the service is gonna be like there and whether we'll have Wi-Fi or not But I will do my best to get back with anybody who hits me up.
All righty. Take us away be careful though It's gotta be be be be careful Normally I would say the less you bet the more you lose when the win when you win But here the less you bet the less you lose when you lose